vpFREE2 Forums

Optimum use of free play

#1

Scenario: I've got $1500 "free play ." By definition, I must play
through it once before cashing out. And, in fact, I intend to do just
that: play through it only once and cash out. My choices are $25 9-6
JOB, $5 9-6 JOB, and $1 9-5 (nine/five) JOB. Which game is best ?

Before I converted to vp, I played a lot of recreational bj and a little
(very little) craps. Both negative expectation games. More than one of
the gambling books/gurus advised that when playing a negative
expectation game, one should minimize the number of bets to minimize the
inevitable drain on one's bankroll caused by the house edge.

Thus, because each of my free play choices has a negative expectation,
it would seem that the $25 game would be the best. Twelve hands and I'm
done! At the $5 level, I would play 60 hands, and 300 hands at the $1
level.

Again, which game is best in this specific scenario?

Thanks in advance for any guidance.

Pat Roach

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

I think most will agree with me when I say 'it depends'

Will you be very disappointed if you play it all thru and get little
or nothing? If you feel you need to cash out as close to $1500 as
possible, then you need to go to a .25 single line game. The EV only
is important in the long run and 300 hands is not the long run.

Recently, I was given $1000 in promo chips, but it was 2 $500 chips.
I pushed for some smaller denomination chips, but was told that was
all they had and that was it! Sooo, I took my 2 chips to the mini bac
table and watched and guessed and ended up winning 5 of 7 hands with a
total after commisions and tips of $2400. I never would have been
able to do that with $25 chips, so that time variance was on my side,
but it could very easily been that I walked away with $0.

Personally, I would most likely do the 300 hands of $1 s.l., but that
is only the right answer for me.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "aprvp78748" <roaches@...> wrote:

Scenario: I've got $1500 "free play ." By definition, I must play
through it once before cashing out. And, in fact, I intend to do just
that: play through it only once and cash out. My choices are $25 9-6
JOB, $5 9-6 JOB, and $1 9-5 (nine/five) JOB. Which game is best ?

Before I converted to vp, I played a lot of recreational bj and a little
(very little) craps. Both negative expectation games. More than one of
the gambling books/gurus advised that when playing a negative
expectation game, one should minimize the number of bets to minimize the
inevitable drain on one's bankroll caused by the house edge.

Thus, because each of my free play choices has a negative expectation,
it would seem that the $25 game would be the best. Twelve hands and I'm
done! At the $5 level, I would play 60 hands, and 300 hands at the $1
level.

Again, which game is best in this specific scenario?

#3

aprvp78748 wrote:

Scenario: I've got $1500 "free play ." By definition, I must play
through it once before cashing out. And, in fact, I intend to do
just that: play through it only once and cash out. My choices are
$25 9-6 JOB, $5 9-6 JOB, and $1 9-5 (nine/five) JOB. Which game is
best?

Before I converted to vp, I played a lot of recreational bj and a
little (very little) craps. Both negative expectation games. More
than one of the gambling books/gurus advised that when playing a
negative expectation game, one should minimize the number of bets to
minimize the inevitable drain on one's bankroll caused by the house
edge.

Thus, because each of my free play choices has a negative exectation,
it would seem that the $25 game would be the best. Twelve hands and
I'm done! At the $5 level, I would play 60 hands, and 300 hands at
the $1 level.

Again, which game is best in this specific scenario?

Thanks in advance for any guidance.

This calls for a modest twist on the table logic. But, to start with,
the table reasoning should really be stated that you want to minimize
the total dollars bet, not the total number of bets. It's the house
edge times the total dollars wagered that strengthens the house take
from your bankroll. The same goes for your Free Play.

But in this case, the dollars wagered is a constant: no matter what
you play, you're going to wager through the same $1500 in bets through
before you cash out. So number of wagers isn't a factor at all.

There are two key factors to be considered:

- The EV of the wins from your play
- The expected variance from that EV for your selected play

···

------

The EV is determined by the ER of the game you choose times the $1500
of bets played. For 9/6 Jacks, that'll be .9954 * $1500 = $1493. For
9/5 Jacks, that'll be .9845 = $1476.

The ER difference is only $17 ... not surprising since the play is so
limited. This suggests that the confidence that you'll come away with
that near $1500 intact is a much more important consideration.

-------

Just as with any other vp play, the more concentrated your video poker
wagers are, the greater the risk that you'll suffer a sizable loss
(or, conversely, the greater the potential that you'll come away with
a VERY large win).

My approach to Free Play is to simply play it as closely as possible
to how you play your own money. In principal, there's very little
difference between the two since the proceeds of Free Play translate
into your own bankroll. Of course, limited play options for your Free
Play may require some accommodation.

Without delving into some specific math (or results from software such
as Dunbar's vp Analyzer or the bankroll analyzer from VP for Winners),
I expect you get the idea that I'm steering you to the $1 9/5 Jacks play.

There's no doubt that some others will look at this as "found money"
and enjoy a shot at a big win by playing a higher risk/higher win
opportunity play ... I certainly won't fault you should that be your
preference. But I advise the shot that gives you the greatest
probability of coming away with hard cash.

- Harry

#4

Scenario: I've got $1500 "free play ." By definition, I must play
through it once before cashing out. And, in fact, I intend to do

just

that: play through it only once and cash out. My choices are $25

9-
6

JOB, $5 9-6 JOB, and $1 9-5 (nine/five) JOB. Which game is best ?

Casinos love the conversion from cash back to FreePlay. Although many
gamblers put their cash back right back into the machines, others
(like myself) cashed out at the end of the trip and took it home. But
after losing sessions that always wasn't an easy choice.

Recently the Monte Carlo sent me a $250 FreePlay coupon with no stay
required. I went in with the same intent you did. I didn't gamble it
all away, but I did play a hand or two after the FreePlay was
redeemed. It's that extra hand or two the casino wants from you. And
they hope it will eventually lead to getting it all back, and then
some.

Thus, with FreePlay you are always subject to the temptation of
putting it all back. Think about it - you're sitting right there at
the machine. There is always the rationale of "just one more hand".
What you "intend to do" might change in a moment of weakness. That's
a major difference from getting your cash back at the cage and
heading for the exit.

Therefore, my advice is to play the lowest initial investment at a
full-pay machine. Under your scenario that makes the $5 9/6 Jacks
preferable to the $25. That way the most you lose personally if you
put everything back is $25, not $125. It also avoids the taxable four-
of-a-kind or higher if that concerns you.

Leave with the $1500 if you can break even during your session. But
at the very least set a stop-loss limit that you absolutely will not
violate. And let us all know how you do.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "aprvp78748" <roaches@...> wrote:

#5

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:

aprvp78748 wrote:
> Scenario: I've got $1500 "free play ." By definition, I must

play

> through it once before cashing out. And, in fact, I intend to

do

> just that: play through it only once and cash out. My choices

are

> $25 9-6 JOB, $5 9-6 JOB, and $1 9-5 (nine/five) JOB. Which game

is

> best?
>
> Before I converted to vp, I played a lot of recreational bj and

a

> little (very little) craps. Both negative expectation games.

More

> than one of the gambling books/gurus advised that when playing a
> negative expectation game, one should minimize the number of

bets to

> minimize the inevitable drain on one's bankroll caused by the

house

> edge.
>
> Thus, because each of my free play choices has a negative

exectation,

> it would seem that the $25 game would be the best. Twelve hands

and

> I'm done! At the $5 level, I would play 60 hands, and 300

hands at

> the $1 level.
>
> Again, which game is best in this specific scenario?
>
> Thanks in advance for any guidance.

Just as with any other vp play, the more concentrated your video

poker

wagers are, the greater the risk that you'll suffer a sizable loss
(or, conversely, the greater the potential that you'll come away

with

a VERY large win).

My approach to Free Play is to simply play it as closely as

possible

to how you play your own money. In principal, there's very little
difference between the two since the proceeds of Free Play

translate

into your own bankroll. Of course, limited play options for your

Free

Play may require some accommodation.

Without delving into some specific math (or results from software

such

as Dunbar's vp Analyzer or the bankroll analyzer from VP for

Winners),

I expect you get the idea that I'm steering you to the $1 9/5

Jacks play.

There's no doubt that some others will look at this as "found

money"

and enjoy a shot at a big win by playing a higher risk/higher win
opportunity play ... I certainly won't fault you should that be

your

preference. But I advise the shot that gives you the greatest
probability of coming away with hard cash.

- Harry

What the heck, I'll delve into some specific results from Dunbar's
Risk Analyzer for Video Poker in order to illustrate Harry's point.

Here is a table that compares the outcome of the three choices the
original poster presented:

                                   PROBABILITY
FINAL BANK, 9/5 $1, 9/6 $5, 9/6 $25
0, 0%, 0%, 0%
1 - 299, 0%, 0%, 1%
300 - 599, 0%, 0%, 5%
600 - 899, 0%, 3%, 19%
900 - 1199, 5%, 21%, 17%
1200 - 1499, 60%, 36%, 16%
1500 - 1799, 32%, 24%, 18%
1800 - 2099, 2%, 11%, 8%
2100 - 2399, 0%, 4%, 7%
2400 - 2699, 0%, 2%, 3%
2700 - 2999, 0%, 0%, 2%
3000 +, 1%, 0%, 4%

Playing the 9/5 JOB for $1, you will end up with between $1200 and
$1800 92% of the time. That drops to 60% and 34% for the $5 and $25
9/6 JOB games. Playing for $1, you have almost no chance of walking
away with less than $900. Compare that to the 25% chance of walking
away with less than $900 if you play the $25 JOB game.

As Harry said, it makes the most sense to play a game that is
similar to the level you normally play.

--Dunbar

PS--each column of probabilities above represents 100,000 trials.
The longest of those took 41 secs on my 5-yr-old laptop.

I deleted an earlier version of this post because the table was
unreadable. I hope this version comes out better.

#6

Playing the 9/5 JOB for $1, you will end up with between $1200 and
$1800 92% of the time. That drops to 60% and 34% for the $5 and $25
9/6 JOB games. Playing for $1, you have almost no chance of walking
away with less than $900. Compare that to the 25% chance of

walking

away with less than $900 if you play the $25 JOB game.

As Harry said, it makes the most sense to play a game that is
similar to the level you normally play.

--Dunbar

I'll give you a different perspective on this, and also reference
the Dunbar table.

For me, as a quarter and dollar player, it would be a kick to play
$1500 on the $5 machine. Looking at the table for the $5 machine,
you have a 92% chance of walking with between $900 and $2099.

For me, this compares favorably to Dunbar's observation of the $1
game giving you a 92% chance of walking with between $1200 and
$1800.

Yes, there are other potential results in the remaining 8%, but I'd
take my chances and play the freeplay on the $5.

Mac
www.CasinoCamper.com