Bob Sommer wrote about one long session vs locking up a ( daily) profit after a big hit. If you start playing and are down $500, then hit a royal for $1000, then lose $500 and are even for the day, how is that worse or better than being down $1000 and hitting a royal to get to even or hitting a royal on the first hand and then losing $1000 and being even for the day?
If you believe hitting a big hand is somehow above and beyond the normal results of the game, then you will be disappointed playing video poker. In Bob's example, hitting dealt aces is all part of the 100.17% return for 10/7 double bonus. Now, hitting big hands is great and 'knowing when to quit' might make you feel good at the moment, but I don't see the difference between losing $500 today and losing $500 tomorrow instead of losing $1000 today. Or winning $500 today and tomorrow vs winning $1000 today.
Instead of one long session, it might be easier to think of it as one short session. Each hand is a session. In 10/7 double bonus, you will have a losing 1 hand session 56.7 % of the time. 31.7% of the time you will have a break even one-hand session and 11.6% of the time you will have a winning session. The key to all this is that session 1 and session 2 and session 42 are not related ( if you believe the games are fair).
I am firmly convinced that when I play hand number 4356 of the day, my results are not based on the previous 4355 hands. I believe that if I am up money or down money at that point, the same odds for making the next hand exist. When we sum up a bunch of independent events ( each hand played) how can you generate a dependent result? It doesn't work that way.
I witnessed a good deal of Ednar's bloodbath on the NSUD over the weekend. I told him that if he plays not as accurately when he is losing, then he should stop, walk around, grab a bite to eat and then come and and play when he no longer bothered by the previous loss. If it doesn't bother him, then play on if you so desire.
Bob Sommer seems to believe that if you are up $1000, then playing another two hours is bad because you probably won't be at $1000 when you are done. This is true. Not because the session catches up to you but because in any 2 hour window playing 10/7, if you don't hit aces or a royal, you will be probably be down money.
