Last night at the Seminole Hard Rock in Hollywood my was playing $2 8/5 BP.
She hit 4 Aces on back to back hands. Can anyone tell me what the odds are
of that happening? Thanks.
Frank
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Odds of back to back Aces
That would be 1 in 2,931,681,025
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From: "fdbadach@aol.com" <fdbadach@aol.com>
To: vpfree@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, December 10, 2012 2:20 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Odds of back to back Aces
Last night at the Seminole Hard Rock in Hollywood my was playing $2 8/5 BP.
She hit 4 Aces on back to back hands. Can anyone tell me what the odds are
of that happening? Thanks.
Frank
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I believe Ernie's answer is for back-to-back dealt aces. Dealt aces have a cycle of 54,145. 4 aces for 8/5 BP have a cycle of about 5108.4, so square that to get about 26,095,751 hands.
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ERNIE NELMIDA wrote:
That would be 1 in 2,931,681,025
Last night at the Seminole Hard Rock in Hollywood my was playing $2 8/5 BP. She hit 4 Aces on back to back hands. Can anyone tell me what the odds are of that happening? Thanks.
Frank
To accurately calculate the odds, we need to know how many aces the player held on the next hand resulting to another 4 aces.
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________________________________
From: jeffcole2003oct <jeff-cole@comcast.net>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, December 10, 2012 9:53 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Odds of back to back Aces
I believe Ernie's answer is for back-to-back dealt aces. Dealt aces have a cycle of 54,145. 4 aces for 8/5 BP have a cycle of about 5108.4, so square that to get about 26,095,751 hands.
ERNIE NELMIDA wrote:
That would be 1 in 2,931,681,025
Last night at the Seminole Hard Rock in Hollywood my was playing $2 8/5 BP. She hit 4 Aces on back to back hands. Can anyone tell me what the odds are of that happening? Thanks.
Frank
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Both of the previous answers address back-to-back aces ON THE NEXT TWO HANDS. If you look at the odds of receiving them sometime in your life the number is quite a bit smaller --- perhaps as low as even money for long-term players. Bob
I believe Ernie's answer is for back-to-back dealt aces. Dealt aces have a cycle of 54,145. 4 aces for 8/5 BP have a cycle of about 5108.4, so square that to get about 26,095,751 hands.
···
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ERNIE NELMIDA wrote:
That would be 1 in 2,931,681,025
====
Last night at the Seminole Hard Rock in Hollywood my was playing $2 8/5 BP. She hit 4 Aces on back to back hands. Can anyone tell me what the odds are of that happening? Thanks.
Frank
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
It would seem to me, along that line of reasoning, you would also need to know how many aces filled on the next hand's draw.
< Sorry ... couldn't resist ... acting a bit of a smartass this a.m. ;>
Given the specific question asked, I think Jeff nailed it. (IOW, in the course of 26 mil hands, you expect one set of back to back quad Aces on average in 8/5 BP.)
- H.
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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, ERNIE NELMIDA <been2all50@...> wrote:
To accurately calculate the odds, we need to know how many aces the player held on the next hand resulting to another 4 aces.
________________________________
From: jeffcole2003oct <jeff-cole@...>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, December 10, 2012 9:53 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Odds of back to back AcesÂ
I believe Ernie's answer is for back-to-back dealt aces. Dealt aces have a cycle of 54,145. 4 aces for 8/5 BP have a cycle of about 5108.4, so square that to get about 26,095,751 hands.ERNIE NELMIDA wrote:
That would be 1 in 2,931,681,025Last night at the Seminole Hard Rock in Hollywood my was playing $2 8/5 BP. She hit 4 Aces on back to back hands. Can anyone tell me what the odds are of that happening? Thanks.
Frank
If the cycle is 25 million hands (5000^2) then the half way even money point is about 2/3rd's of that or about 17 million hands. At the rate of a million hands per year, 1000 hours at 1000 hands per hour, that would be 17 years. Of course someone like the bucket brothers plays 4000 hours at 3000 hands per hour for 12 million hands per year, so he would get there in about 17 months.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@...> wrote:
Both of the previous answers address back-to-back aces ON THE NEXT TWO HANDS. If you look at the odds of receiving them sometime in your life the number is quite a bit smaller --- perhaps as low as even money for long-term players. Bob
I believe Ernie's answer is for back-to-back dealt aces. Dealt aces have a cycle of 54,145. 4 aces for 8/5 BP have a cycle of about 5108.4, so square that to get about 26,095,751 hands.
====
ERNIE NELMIDA wrote:
That would be 1 in 2,931,681,025
====
Last night at the Seminole Hard Rock in Hollywood my was playing $2 8/5 BP. She hit 4 Aces on back to back hands. Can anyone tell me what the odds are of that happening? Thanks.
Frank
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
At 8/5 BP your chances of hitting back to back four Aces in your lifetime is a function of how much you play.
Your chances of hitting back to back four Aces on your next two hands is 5106 squared.
After hitting four aces your chances of hitting them on the next hand is 5106.