Newb question, but given the choice between the NSUDs and LDWs at the
LVH, which would most people choose?
It looks like to me from the stats that the LDW has a higher 100.15%
return but a HUGE variance of 70.7% where as NSUD is 99.73% rtn w/
25.8% variance. Am I looking at this correctly???
Shouldn't the variance be similar on these dueces wild games only the
expected returns different?
Usually, positive expectation games are more volatile because they
receive the bulk of their additional return from infrequent hands
(such as Royal Flush and Four Deuces). This also helps to explain why
progressive jackpot (usually RF) games are usually more volatile
than "flat-top" games. As the infrequent Royal Flush becomes more
valuable, more frequent hands (such as Jacks or Better) are held less
often, thus INCREASING volatility as the jackpot (and overall return)
increases.
For a good low-volatility game, seek out 9/6 Jacks or Better,
especially if offered in multi-hand versions.
I hope this helps. Replies appreciated.
Newb question, but given the choice between the NSUDs and LDWs at
the
LVH, which would most people choose?
It looks like to me from the stats that the LDW has a higher
100.15%
return but a HUGE variance of 70.7% where as NSUD is 99.73% rtn w/
25.8% variance. Am I looking at this correctly???Shouldn't the variance be similar on these deuces wild games only
the
expected returns different?
LDW pays 2500 for the deuces, NSUD 1000. The higher the amount of
the more infrequent payouts, the higher the game variance.
Newb question, but given the choice between the NSUDs and LDWs at
the
LVH, which would most people choose?
It looks like to me from the stats that the LDW has a higher
100.15%
return but a HUGE variance of 70.7% where as NSUD is 99.73% rtn w/
25.8% variance. Am I looking at this correctly???Shouldn't the variance be similar on these dueces wild games only
the
A good one sentence definition, but not quite accurate.
The increase in variance depends not just on the amount of the payout, but just how infrequent that payout actually is. If it's very infrequent (like the 6000 coin RF in Pick'em) it will not increase the variance much.
I'm always looking for easy ways and shortcuts to explain VP concepts (even if they are not detailed enough to be perfect in a math sense). How about something like this:
"The more that infrequent hands contribute to the overall return, the higher the variance. The more that the frequently occuring hands contribute to the overall return, the lower the variance."
OF course we know, that Variance is not a perfect method to judge "volatility". Let's say you start with a mythical 10/7 JB (101.9% / 17.5 Var.), then double the royal as in a progressive. Now, you have a return of over 104% with correct strategy and a variance of 81. But if you don't change strategies and accept the measly 103.6% return, all the volatility is on the upside.
Skip
vpbob_2000 wrote:
The higher the amount of the more infrequent payouts, the higher the game variance.
--
Thanks!
Skip
http://www.vpinsider.com
Newb question, but given the choice between the NSUDs and LDWs at
the
LVH, which would most people choose?
You are correct in noting the extreme difference in the variance of
the two games. It's certainly important enough to be a significant
factor in which game you choose to play. Of course, in the final
analysis, only you can decide whether you are sufficiently
comfortable with the higher variance of LDW. BTW, given the choice
between NSUD and LD at LVH, I would promptly choice neither and
scurry on off to the Spacequest section to play AA.
Pete
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "boling_ed" <ebspam@c...> wrote:
I've played the LDW at the Hilton quite a bit, and boy oh boy, it's
not for everyone. Here's a trick I like to use to assess what it will
be like to play a particular machine.
I used Frugal Video Poker to get these stats:
Take the total return 100.14%, and subtract the two premium payoff
hands percent contribution: RF @ 1.76%, and 4 deuces @ 10.77%. (Yes,
you read that correctly, the deuces alone contribute over 10%!) You
get 87.61%.
So, until you hit one of the top two payout lines, you're playing a
game that returns only 87.61%. That low payout means this machine is
essentially a vacuum cleaner until you get bailed out by deuces or the
royal.
For comparison, NSUD returns 94.17% without deuces or RF.
9/6 Jacks or Better returns 97.53% without a RF, or 96.98% without RF
or SF.
Don't get me wrong, I think LDW is a great play at the Hilton. But
bring LOTS of cash, and fasten your seat belt.
Ken Smith
http://www.blackjackinfo.com
For online VP progressives, check out
http://www.slotcharts.com/videopoker.php
Newb question, but given the choice between the NSUDs and LDWs at
the
LVH, which would most people choose?
It looks like to me from the stats that the LDW has a higher
100.15%
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "boling_ed" <ebspam@c...> wrote:
return but a HUGE variance of 70.7% where as NSUD is 99.73% rtn w/
25.8% variance. Am I looking at this correctly???
WOW! THANKS! Someone actually answered the question that was posed.
LOL.
.....bl
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Kenneth R. Smith" <kensmith@b...>
wrote:
I've played the LDW at the Hilton quite a bit, and boy oh boy, it's
not for everyone. Here's a trick I like to use to assess what it will
be like to play a particular machine.I used Frugal Video Poker to get these stats:
Take the total return 100.14%, and subtract the two premium payoff
hands percent contribution: RF @ 1.76%, and 4 deuces @ 10.77%. (Yes,
you read that correctly, the deuces alone contribute over 10%!) You
get 87.61%.So, until you hit one of the top two payout lines, you're playing a
game that returns only 87.61%. That low payout means this machine is
essentially a vacuum cleaner until you get bailed out by deuces or the
royal.For comparison, NSUD returns 94.17% without deuces or RF.
9/6 Jacks or Better returns 97.53% without a RF, or 96.98% without RF
or SF.Don't get me wrong, I think LDW is a great play at the Hilton. But
bring LOTS of cash, and fasten your seat belt.Ken Smith
http://www.blackjackinfo.com
For online VP progressives, check out
http://www.slotcharts.com/videopoker.php— In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "boling_ed" <ebspam@c…> wrote:
>
> Newb question, but given the choice between the NSUDs and LDWs at
the
> LVH, which would most people choose?
>
> It looks like to me from the stats that the LDW has a higher
100.15%
> return but a HUGE variance of 70.7% where as NSUD is 99.73% rtn w/
> 25.8% variance. Am I looking at this correctly???
<<Here's a trick I like to use to assess what it will
be like to play a particular machine.
I used Frugal Video Poker to get these stats:
Take the total return 100.14%, and subtract the two premium payoff
hands percent contribution........ >>
Ken: As usual, your advice is right on. I have been using this "trick" for years and have found it much more practical and understandable than any complicated math charts and discussions about volatility. (Not that I demean those by any means - we need a solid math basis, of course.)
I also recommend this "trick" for things like drawings and tournaments in evaluating the EV of a play. We have played enough over the years (15 years of VP) that we have pretty much achieved the theoretical EV of most any kind of play we have done. Plus we have had a very adequate, even more than adequate, bankroll for any play we have or will do. But many (most?) players do not plan to play unlimited hours and they very often have a limited bankroll.
So this "trick" can be very helpful. For example, you enter a tournament that has 250 people and the prize pool is $50,000 and first prize is $20,000. Even if one has "average" luck, you would expect to win that $20,000 only once if you played in 250 such tournaments, which is unlikely. So if I had a limited bankroll, I would consider for purposes of figuring EV, that my more realistic equity in that tournament would be figured like this: $50,000 minus $20,000 is $30,000. Divide $30,000 by 250 and a realistic equity is $120 per tournament. Then if I "get lucky" and win that top prize - well, that the gravy of gambling!!!!!
________________________________________
Jean $¢ott - Go to http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
for VP software and strategy cards and for the
Frugal series of books. Now is the time you might
need "Tax Help for the Frugal Gambler."
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
With the choice only between the two, I also would ignore both and
play the more exciting and higher value AA at the Hilton where I will
be next week. I'll also play the PKM at the bar when I get too tired
to see 3 to a straight flush over a small pair.
Don't blame me, but I don't do Deuces,
Dipy911
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bornloser1537" <bornloser1537@y...> wrote:
WOW! THANKS! Someone actually answered the question that was posed.
LOL.
I'm a fan of triple pay deuces, a 99.9% payback game with even
greater volatility (deuces with 5 coins = 3000 coins out). It's
almost like getting a royal every 5000 hands. Living in Denver, I
don't have great pay games like FPDW or All American.
- Jon
With the choice only between the two, I also would ignore both and
play the more exciting and higher value AA at the Hilton where I
will
be next week. I'll also play the PKM at the bar when I get too
tired
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dipy911" <dipy911@y...> wrote:
to see 3 to a straight flush over a small pair.
Don't blame me, but I don't do Deuces,
Dipy911
Many thanks to all that replied. Now I just need to hit a RF! 
-Ed