I see a lot of high limit players at the Palms playing NSUD. Often
these players get an offer that gives them .25% cash back and the
ability to convert their existing points to cash by matching new play
at a rate of .25% as well. How good is this offer?
Lets say you initially play $200,000 coin in at 3x points on NSUD. You
now have 600,000 of comp points. You will lose $544 to the drop earning
these comps. Now you get the .25% offer with matching cashout. You need
to put in $600,000 coin in to get the full .25% on all your existing
points. Doing this, you will lose another $132 to the drop but pick up
$1500 in cash back (.25% x $600,000). Adding the three numbers shows
your net win is $824 on $800,000 coin in for a total return of
100.103%. Doing the math for 4x points shows a return of 100.128% and
on 2x points shows a return of 100.0613%. Granted one will receive
mailers for this play as well, perhaps $800-$1200. But that would add
only .10% to .15% to the play.
Unfortunatly, I waited to do the math until after I had played enough
to become a Hall of Famer and lose $9,000 in the process. Now I feel
like a Hall of Shamer. TomSki
Not so ugly not so good at the Palms?
Am I reading something wrong? On $600,000 coin in shouldn't the EV
generate an average loss of $1,631?
I see a lot of high limit players at the Palms playing NSUD. Often
these players get an offer that gives them .25% cash back and the
ability to convert their existing points to cash by matching new
play
at a rate of .25% as well. How good is this offer?
Lets say you initially play $200,000 coin in at 3x points on
NSUD. You
now have 600,000 of comp points. You will lose $544 to the drop
earning
these comps. Now you get the .25% offer with matching cashout. You
need
to put in $600,000 coin in to get the full .25% on all your
existing
points. Doing this, you will lose another $132 to the drop but
pick up
$1500 in cash back (.25% x $600,000). Adding the three numbers
shows
your net win is $824 on $800,000 coin in for a total return of
100.103%. Doing the math for 4x points shows a return of 100.128%
and
on 2x points shows a return of 100.0613%. Granted one will receive
mailers for this play as well, perhaps $800-$1200. But that would
add
only .10% to .15% to the play.
Unfortunatly, I waited to do the math until after I had played
enough
to become a Hall of Famer and lose $9,000 in the process. Now I
feel
TomSki: Bob discusses this play at
http://www.casinogaming.com/columnists/dancer/2007/0102.html and states that this play isn't as good as it looks. But he mentions "extra goodies." And there are a lot of them: drawings, tournament invitations, mystery/e-mail extra free play, birthday free play, gift card/gift promos, and other special promos like the one discussed here.
Brad and I play this promo sometimes because we play there at least once a month anyway to be eligible for "extra goodies" and to keep our mailers coming although we don't know what it takes to get the top mailer of $400 a month. I don't think it takes as much as $400,000 coin-in, but, again, I don't know what it takes. I have never been able to "track" it accurately because they use so many factors, including "grading on the curve." (Months when a lot of pros put in a lot of play, like for juicy promos, it seems to take more to get in that top % that gets the top mailers.)
One of the puzzles to me (not just at the Palms) is that some players, seemingly very skilled ones too, seem to "overplay" promotions and thus dilute their edge - sometimes so much that I can't see where they have an edge at all. I'm not being judgmental here - and if you have a big enough bankroll you can do this without pain.
And there is another factor - when I see someone I know is a skilled advantage player - and he/she seems to be overplaying for a certain promotion, I start looking for "angles" that I might have missed. Maybe they know that if they play big now they will get big offers in future mailings. Or, they may have found out more details about a drawing or other promotion that makes it more juicy, information that the general public doesn't know. Personally, we have been seen playing what looked like was in a negative situation and people have questioned our actions. I usually will explain - however, sometimes there is an advantage that I don't want to publicize or it will go away!
And some may be counting a per hour dollar theoretical profit that, playing at very high levels, can be achieved with a very small edge although the bankroll requirements (both financial and psychological) are extremely high. Most players do not have the nerves of steel that is required to play with a small edge, even if they have a big enough financial bankroll to cover the god-awful losing streaks that WILL come.
···
________________________________________
Jean $¢ott - "FRUGAL VIDEO POKER"
This new book (autographed) and other
frugal products are now available at my
new Web site, http://queenofcomps.com/.
E-mail address is queenofcomps@cox.net.
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