Played 5 play DDB a couple of days ago - got trips (3 of a kind) dealt 15
times before finally got 4 of a kind (on the 15th one). That is the equivalent
of 75 single line attempts. This follows the previous session I reported.
I did get some quads on pair draws, and finally got Aces with kicker while
holding 1 Ace, which brought me even again.
But still - 15 times???
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Here's the best my simple mind can figure. On the first card drawn,
47 of the 48 available cards will NOT give you quads. On the 2nd card
drawn, it's 46 of 47. So 47/48 times 46/47 = .9574 chance of NOT
getting quads, which means .0426 chance of getting them. 1/.0426 -
23.5, so you'd expect to hit quads once every 23 or 24 tries.
In 75 attempts, you'd average hitting 3 times, so hitting 1 time is a
bit below expectation.
Stuart (RandomStu)
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, misscraps@a... wrote:
Played 5 play DDB a couple of days ago - got trips (3 of a kind)
dealt 15 times before finally got 4 of a kind (on the 15th one).
That is the equivalent of 75 single line attempts.
In reply to misscraps:
> Played 5 play DDB a couple of days ago - got trips (3 of a kind)
> dealt 15 times before finally got 4 of a kind (on the 15th one).
> That is the equivalent of 75 single line attempts.
Stuart wrote:
Here's the best my simple mind can figure. On the first card drawn,
47 of the 48 available cards will NOT give you quads. On the 2nd
card drawn, it's 46 of 47. So 47/48 times 46/47 = .9574 chance of
NOT getting quads, which means .0426 chance of getting them. 1/.0426
- 23.5, so you'd expect to hit quads once every 23 or 24 tries.In 75 attempts, you'd average hitting 3 times, so hitting 1 time is
a bit below expectation.
Extrapolating on your numbers, Stuart, the odds of failing to complete
a quad from a held trip 70 times in succession (14 5-play attempts) is
(.9574)^70 = .0476 (about 5%).
We can all look for this to happen more than a few times before we hit
the big RF in the sky.
- H.
A little mind game I play is to count the unconverted dealt trips in
between quads. Just to help alleviate the boredom. My record is 120
in a row (ouch!), so your 75 doesn't surprise me. This is an evil
game we play, sometimes it is truly cruel.
- Brian in Michigan
Played 5 play DDB a couple of days ago - got trips (3 of a kind)
dealt 15
times before finally got 4 of a kind (on the 15th one). That is
the equivalent
of 75 single line attempts. This follows the previous session I
reported.
I did get some quads on pair draws, and finally got Aces with
kicker while
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, misscraps@a... wrote:
holding 1 Ace, which brought me even again.
But still - 15 times???
i get pretty much the same results
cycle is 1081/46=23.5
prob. of one hand not hitting=22.5/23.5
prob. for 75 hands=
(22.5/23.5)^75 x (75/23.5)^Hits / Hits!=
Hits Probability
0 3.8335328%
1 12.2346793%
2 19.5234244%
3 20.7696004%
4 16.5714897%
5 10.5775466%
6 5.6263546%
6 10.8633722%
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:
> In reply to misscraps:
> > Played 5 play DDB a couple of days ago - got trips (3 of a
kind)
> > dealt 15 times before finally got 4 of a kind (on the 15th
one).
> > That is the equivalent of 75 single line attempts.
Stuart wrote:
> Here's the best my simple mind can figure. On the first card
drawn,
> 47 of the 48 available cards will NOT give you quads. On the 2nd
> card drawn, it's 46 of 47. So 47/48 times 46/47 = .9574 chance of
> NOT getting quads, which means .0426 chance of getting them.
1/.0426
> - 23.5, so you'd expect to hit quads once every 23 or 24 tries.
>
> In 75 attempts, you'd average hitting 3 times, so hitting 1 time
is
> a bit below expectation.
Extrapolating on your numbers, Stuart, the odds of failing to
complete
a quad from a held trip 70 times in succession (14 5-play attempts)
is
(.9574)^70 = .0476 (about 5%).
We can all look for this to happen more than a few times before we
hit
the big RF in the sky.
- H.
iggy,
If you want to ensure that you're communicating effectively (which I
imagine is why you post) you gotta give us just a little more
explanation of your tables. I imagine about 1 in 100 here are able to
pick up specifically what result you're referring to when you write
"pretty much the same results" -- despite your quote of Stuart's/my
post. Yep, we agree on cycle. But that one was a no-brainer.
As far as the table below, speaking for myself, count me out of the "1
in 100". On first take, and before the first cup of coffee's kicked
in, I don't have the slightest clue. (And that's about all I'm
prepared to give it just now.)
- Harry
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
i get pretty much the same results
cycle is 1081/46=23.5
prob. of one hand not hitting=22.5/23.5
prob. for 75 hands=
(22.5/23.5)^75 x (75/23.5)^Hits / Hits!=
Hits Probability
0 3.8335328%
1 12.2346793%
2 19.5234244%
3 20.7696004%
4 16.5714897%
5 10.5775466%
6 5.6263546%
>6 10.8633722%--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:
> > In reply to misscraps:
> > > Played 5 play DDB a couple of days ago - got trips (3 of a
kind)
> > > dealt 15 times before finally got 4 of a kind (on the 15th
one).
> > > That is the equivalent of 75 single line attempts.
>
> Stuart wrote:
> > Here's the best my simple mind can figure. On the first card
drawn,
> > 47 of the 48 available cards will NOT give you quads. On the 2nd
> > card drawn, it's 46 of 47. So 47/48 times 46/47 = .9574 chance of
> > NOT getting quads, which means .0426 chance of getting them.
1/.0426
> > - 23.5, so you'd expect to hit quads once every 23 or 24 tries.
> >
> > In 75 attempts, you'd average hitting 3 times, so hitting 1 time
is
> > a bit below expectation.
>
>
> Extrapolating on your numbers, Stuart, the odds of failing to
complete
> a quad from a held trip 70 times in succession (14 5-play attempts)
is
> (.9574)^70 = .0476 (about 5%).
>
> We can all look for this to happen more than a few times before we
hit
> the big RF in the sky.
>
> - H.
I wrote:
iggy,
If you want to ensure that you're communicating effectively (which I
imagine is why you post) you gotta give us just a little more
explanation of your tables. On first take, and before the first cup
of coffee's kicked in, I don't have the slightest clue.
The coffee's kicked in and I've got a clue. A very modest amount of
explanation would have helped up front.
- H.
nightoftheiguana2000 wrote:
Hits Probability
0 3.8335328%
1 12.2346793%
I wrote:
> Stuart, the odds of failing to complete a quad from a held trip 70
> times in succession (14 5-play attempts) is (.9574)^70 = .0476
> (about 5%).
A note about respective results:
I calculated that the probability of misscraps drought of 14 5-play
dealt trips without completing a quad was about 5%.
Iggy's calculation of the probability of only one hit in 75 attempts
to complete a quad (1 in 15 5-play dealt trips) is even more
illustrative in showing just how likely one might encounter a similar
situation (12%). (Add the even more frustration case of failing to
hit a quad at all and you have a 16% likelihood)
- H.
(22.5/23.5)^120=0.54%
out of 200 data points you would expect about 1 of this magnititude
what if the machine was rigged to only give half the expected number
of quads?
instead of cycle 23.5, it would be cycle 47
(46/47)^120=7.57% or 15 out of a sample size of 200
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "marksalot300" <Marksalot300@a...>
wrote:
A little mind game I play is to count the unconverted dealt trips
in
between quads. Just to help alleviate the boredom. My record is
120
in a row (ouch!), so your 75 doesn't surprise me. This is an evil
game we play, sometimes it is truly cruel.- Brian in Michigan
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, misscraps@a... wrote:
> Played 5 play DDB a couple of days ago - got trips (3 of a kind)
dealt 15
> times before finally got 4 of a kind (on the 15th one). That is
the equivalent
> of 75 single line attempts. This follows the previous session I
reported.
>
> I did get some quads on pair draws, and finally got Aces with
kicker while
> holding 1 Ace, which brought me even again.
>
> But still - 15 times???
how's this?
quad probabilities for 75 dealt trips:
(52 card deck, random deal)
quads probabilities
0 3.8335328%
1 12.7784428%
2 21.0134393%
3 22.7256454%
4 18.1805163%
5 11.4739259%
6 5.9494430%
7 2.6064227%
8 0.9846486%
9 0.3257850%
9 0.1281982%
formula=(22.5/23.5)^(75-quads) x (1/23.5)^quads x combin(75/quads)
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:
iggy,
If you want to ensure that you're communicating effectively (which I
imagine is why you post) you gotta give us just a little more
explanation of your tables. I imagine about 1 in 100 here are able
to
pick up specifically what result you're referring to when you write
"pretty much the same results" -- despite your quote of Stuart's/my
post. Yep, we agree on cycle. But that one was a no-brainer.As far as the table below, speaking for myself, count me out of the
"1
in 100". On first take, and before the first cup of coffee's kicked
in, I don't have the slightest clue. (And that's about all I'm
prepared to give it just now.)- Harry
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
> i get pretty much the same results
> cycle is 1081/46=23.5
> prob. of one hand not hitting=22.5/23.5
> prob. for 75 hands=
> (22.5/23.5)^75 x (75/23.5)^Hits / Hits!=
> Hits Probability
> 0 3.8335328%
> 1 12.2346793%
> 2 19.5234244%
> 3 20.7696004%
> 4 16.5714897%
> 5 10.5775466%
> 6 5.6263546%
> >6 10.8633722%
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
> wrote:
> > > In reply to misscraps:
> > > > Played 5 play DDB a couple of days ago - got trips (3 of a
> kind)
> > > > dealt 15 times before finally got 4 of a kind (on the 15th
> one).
> > > > That is the equivalent of 75 single line attempts.
> >
> > Stuart wrote:
> > > Here's the best my simple mind can figure. On the first card
> drawn,
> > > 47 of the 48 available cards will NOT give you quads. On the
2nd
> > > card drawn, it's 46 of 47. So 47/48 times 46/47 = .9574
chance of
> > > NOT getting quads, which means .0426 chance of getting them.
> 1/.0426
> > > - 23.5, so you'd expect to hit quads once every 23 or 24
tries.
> > >
> > > In 75 attempts, you'd average hitting 3 times, so hitting 1
time
> is
> > > a bit below expectation.
> >
> >
> > Extrapolating on your numbers, Stuart, the odds of failing to
> complete
> > a quad from a held trip 70 times in succession (14 5-play
attempts)
> is
> > (.9574)^70 = .0476 (about 5%).
> >
> > We can all look for this to happen more than a few times before
we
> hit
> > the big RF in the sky.
> >
> > - H.