I've been playing the Deuces Wild version of Multi-strike and my
experience has been that holding a pair (especially on Levels 1
and 2)
is the single biggest killer of being able to advance to the next
level.
Has anyone ever evaluated whether-or-not holding a pair in this
game is
preferable to drawing a whole new hand (especially on the lower
levels,
where advancement is the priority)?
You are using fuzzy thinking, I'm afraid. Consider. When dealt a
hand such as QQ973, the only rational alternatives are: keep the
pair, and throw the hand away. You say that holding a pair is
the "single biggest killer". Well, you are referring to ONLY those
times when you are dealt a single pair with no deuces, which is A
BAD HAND. No matter which way you play it, you will likely NOT
advance. So you should restate, "being dealt A BAD HAND (such as a
single pair, no deuce) is the single biggest killer"...etc. The
reason you notice this is that the majority of the bad hands ARE one
pair-no deuce hands. Therefore, when you fail to advance, quite
often it's because you were dealt this particular bad hand and were
unable to improve.
Let's look at what happens when you draw three to a pair. If you
draw the third card for trips, or a deuce, you will advance, while
getting paid at least even money. Let's just consider this one case:
there are six winning cards out of 47 remaining, and you have three
shots at them. If you miss the first time you have a 6/46 chance,
then you will have a 6/45 chance if you miss the second time. This
adds up to roughly 18/46, or about 39%. Add to this the slight
chance of drawing three identical cards to make a natural full house
and we have about a 40% chance of advancing by drawing three to the
pair.
In contrast, drawing all five cards will produce a winner (advance)
about 25% of the time.
You also have to consider that fairly often, when the pair improves,
it improves to a full house or quads, paying 4-1. So the three-card
draw gains in respect to the five-card draw in this fashion as well,
since the five-card draw very rarely makes a hand better than three
of a kind.
I know it can be frustrating when you fail to advance time after
time with one pair, but a proposition that only wins 40% of the time
can very easily suffer ten- or fifteen-hand losing streaks.
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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Ron McGowan" <eltonron@i...> wrote: