Hi everyone,
I am a relatively new VP player living in the fpvp wasteland of New
Mexico. I'm sure that part of my enjoyment playing VP has to do
with the fact that I've been lucky enough to hit 4 Royals in the
last 2 months. <<<snip>>>>>
My problem is that the best game near by is at Sky City Casino 1
hour west of Gallup (I40 exit 102). It is NSUD trip play $1. The
casino offers a .25 cash back brining the game to 99.98% with
optimum strategy. I know that this is a losing play. However, I
am looking at this from an entertainment perspective. I am also
assuming that I can trust in the numbers and expect a theorhetical
loss of $7.00/$35,000 coin in. This is well within my loss comfort
threshhold. I have purchased WinPoker and play very good NSUD.
My question in for anyone who has played this game and can give me
some advise concerning bankroll fluctuations based on their
experience.
Hi Susan - stuck with 'shortpay' or near 100% games (like I) in
Indain casinos. I have played a fair amount of triple play quarter
NSUD. Even at the leisurely pace of 400 hands per hour, that's
$1500 coin-in. Results of numerous hours average out to a shortage
(shortfall) of around 6% UNTIL YOU HIT THE DEUCES (which does account
for 4-5%) OR ROYAL (another 2%). So - I seem to avg. $60-$90 loss
rate per hour for QUARTERS. That $7 loss rate you quote would be
correct, assuming that in $35K coin-in (at $15/hand or 2333 hands)
you would hit all winners that yield that 99.98% - including the
ROYAL.....which isn't likely in 2333 hands (or 7,000 total in 3play).
You have to ask yourself if you are comfortable losing 4x the amt I
feel is average from my quarter play (maybe more if you play
faster). $240-$360/hour. I think some simulated runs on WinPoker
would confirm this. Or 24 betting units per hour. By 6-7 hours,
hopefully you'll hit a set of 2s to make most of that loss rate up.
NO Guarantees. If you don't get DEALT pairs of 2s and 3-2s (avg.
once per 500-600 hands), and can't hold only those 2s (sometimes you
should be playing for SFs, 5Ks, and wild RFs), then your 4-2s jackpot
won't come up in the average number of hands.
I was hoping that 12K would be good enough to start out
with. I plan on making up the .02% as I play by putting $ into my
bankroll 'account'. 16K would probably be better, but I don't
think hubby would go for it :). I would probably put though about
80k/month. How commom are 12k + swings?
$12K swing would be about 12 sets of deuces or 3 Royals.
That theorethically could happen if you get shut out on deuces or
Royals over a 36 hour play period (not too likely, but the
possibility is there). I've gone close to 12 hours without a set of
2s and lost close to a Royal. Needless to say, these sessions are
NOT FUN. So are you willing to lose $4K on such a play?
No guarantee that you'll get it back, ever.
As a newbie - recognize you are playing a 'break-even' situation, and
attempting to win by being 'ahead' of the law of averages.
Guess who wins this battle (the casino).
So - My advice would be to play recreationally, but save your $$ (and
lucky $4K wins) for LV. It will cost you $240-$360 per hour to play
this game... (Remember, you are betting $15/hand to play).
Dan Paymar once wrote about a single-line FPDW $1 player who LOST
$20K (bankrolled for 5 royals) on this nearly 101% game...........so
BE CAREFUL!
Triple play can triple your wins, but is also more likely to TRIPLE
your LOSSES (you will get 3x as many hands to play, but with FEWER
DEALT HANDS). I.E. Triple play fate depends on your starting hands
as much as single-line. HOWEVER - if you get an unlucky streak,
then your losses will be 3x as unlucky.
You'll see this if you run some WinPoker simulations for 400-800 or
pick any number of hands up to 2000 (which I still consider to be an
average session). Results will vary. However, note the results for
100-500 trials, and probably the majority of sessions will be in the
negative (should be, for a break-even or slightly negative situation).
Thanks for your adivce/thoughts. I have greatly enjoyed this forum.
Susan
I hope I wasn't too negative, but that's the reality of playing 'near
100%' games, vs. over 100% opportunities (which mainly only exist in
NV!).
Martin.
PS - And I know there are some out there who do NOT buy-in to the
math vp theories as much as I do. But I've played enough over 100%
situations now and see how this works. And I've LEARNED to limit my
play on those near 100% opportunities (like my local Indian casino
places). In fact, I'm making the shift over to Live Hold'em right
now, as it makes more sense to me (at least for local Indian casino
play).
When you have enough slot benefits and potential to cover the 2%
shortfall that the Royal Flush represents, you can play much longer,
until that Royal hits (i.e., play virtually break-even, and then the
Royal will be like a bonus).
Anyone with WinPoker can test this out.
Just pick your favorite game and set it for a 96% or worse paytable
(by cutting pays on FHs/FLs/Str/ or even 3K or 2 pair) and run some
simulations vs. playing a 'juiced' game (i.e. - make it pay over
101% by juicing some of the same payoffs---- like a 10/6 JB game).
I think you will see a BIG difference, even in shortterm sessions of
say 1000 hands (2 hrs play).
For Susan - Try changing the NSUD game to a 15-9 game, which is
fairly common in these Indian casinos. Even that minor cut (only
affecting SFs and 5Ks) will show up BIG in loss rate on 3play games!
ยทยทยท
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