vpFREE2 Forums

Newbie Needs Help

#1

Since it does not matter which order the 4 royal cards come in you need to divide 4280760 by 24. That comes to 178,365.
Your number could be useful when computing the correct play if holding a stiff (in correct position) is an option in a game with a sequential royal.

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----- Original Message -----
From: Adams Myth
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: 7/18/2006 9:55:13 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Newbie Needs Help

No, you are off by a factor of ten at least.
The odds are much better.

Cards in the deck after the initial deal - 47
Holding a Ten (or any of the gang of five)
probability of getting a 2nd Royal card 1 in 47
probability of getting a 3rd Royal card 1 in 46
probability of getting a 4th Royal card 1 in 45
probability of getting the 5th Royal card 1 in 44
So the chances of completing the Royal Flush,
holding any one of the five cards is 1 in 4280760

The funny thing is, the odds are the same whether you are holding the
ten or the Ace. Ten just seems unworthy of the event compared to an
Ace.

A Myth

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

Adams Myth wrote:
> Do I have a point, or am I chasing a Royal holding a ten spot?

Don't make light of that hold ... it's my fantasy hit when playing

DJ :slight_smile:

(fantasy is about right -- off the top of my head, I figure it's
something like a 1 in 50 mil+ hand occurance ... it's not often that
you hold a lone T in the game)

- H.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

You are correct. In fact someone else already corrected me. See #62787
and #62798

A Myth

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Howard Stern" <howard.w.stern@...>
wrote:

Since it does not matter which order the 4 royal cards come in you

need to divide 4280760 by 24. That comes to 178,365.

#3

Adams Myth wrote:

You are correct. In fact someone else already corrected me. See #62787
and #62798

FWIW, they corrected your calculation of the probability that you'll
complete a RF on the draw if you hold a lone T.

However, my original statement had to do with how often you'll
encounter a hand (in DJ play) where the proper "perfect play" max-ER
strategy is to hold a lone T and you subsequently fill a RF - a far
smaller probability (less than once in 50 mil hands).

- H.

#4

That really escaped me. I would never have considered the possibility
of holding the lone Ten being the correct, max-ER strategy in
a "perfect play" situation.

What would be the initial hand where holding on to the Ten would be the
proper strategy?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

However, my original statement had to do with how often you'll
encounter a hand (in DJ play) where the proper "perfect play" max-ER
strategy is to hold a lone T and you subsequently fill a RF - a far
smaller probability (less than once in 50 mil hands).