vpFREE2 Forums

New VP Book "powerful profits"

#1

Harry: yes, I agree, many people would want to pursue what they could gain short term and not the long term - human nature!

Remember, I'm just the messenger - I didn't write the book! The author believes the machine runs in cycles and you should tally them for a while, noting # of flushes, straights, etc. In DB he states the EV is to keep the two pair and go for the FH. He thinks if you are keeping note of how the machine is dealing, if you have seen lots of 3 of a kind, but does not give many FH, if you have QQx44, you would keep just the high pair and go for something better on the draw. If the machine is dealing lots of 4 of a kind or FH, you would keep the two pair. He further says if you have two low pair, you would keep them both.

Harry wrote:

However, there are few suggestions in video poker that are

potentially more harmful to the player than that they might
reasonably pursue alternative short-term strategies. In most cases
the modifications to strategy strongly affect short-term results in
an adverse manner.

The strategy change suggested by the book author that's noted above
is a prime example. In breaking two pair in DB to aggressively go
after quads, the player will reduce the number of valuable full
houses hit, incurring a cost that will exceed the added credits won
from a greater number of quads. Even in the short-run there's a very
large confidence that the player will wind up behind as a consequence
of such a "short-term strategy".<<< snip

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#2

If an accurate interpretation of the text, this notion should ring very loud alarm bells for any cognizant gambler.

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At 01:03 AM 12/22/2003, you wrote:

Remember, I'm just the messenger - I didn't write the book! The author believes the machine runs in cycles and you should tally them for a while, noting # of flushes, straights, etc. In DB he states the EV is to keep the two pair and go for the FH. He thinks if you are keeping note of how the machine is dealing, if you have seen lots of 3 of a kind, but does not give many FH, if you have QQx44, you would keep just the high pair and go for something better on the draw. If the machine is dealing lots of 4 of a kind or FH, you would keep the two pair. He further says if you have two low pair, you would keep them both.

#3

Sounds like he suggests that you play hunches. If so, join the crowd.
Almost every one [plays hunches and that is partially why the casinos
are expanding and building bigger, etc.
His advice is FLAWED

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On Sun, 21 Dec 2003 23:03:21 -0800 (PST), you wrote:

Harry: yes, I agree, many people would want to pursue what they could gain short term and not the long term - human nature!

Remember, I'm just the messenger - I didn't write the book! The author believes the machine runs in cycles and you should tally them for a while, noting # of flushes, straights, etc. In DB he states the EV is to keep the two pair and go for the FH. He thinks if you are keeping note of how the machine is dealing, if you have seen lots of 3 of a kind, but does not give many FH, if you have QQx44, you would keep just the high pair and go for something better on the draw. If the machine is dealing lots of 4 of a kind or FH, you would keep the two pair. He further says if you have two low pair, you would keep them both.

Harry wrote:

However, there are few suggestions in video poker that are

potentially more harmful to the player than that they might
reasonably pursue alternative short-term strategies. In most cases
the modifications to strategy strongly affect short-term results in
an adverse manner.

The strategy change suggested by the book author that's noted above
is a prime example. In breaking two pair in DB to aggressively go
after quads, the player will reduce the number of valuable full
houses hit, incurring a cost that will exceed the added credits won
from a greater number of quads. Even in the short-run there's a very
large confidence that the player will wind up behind as a consequence
of such a "short-term strategy".<<< snip

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#4

<<The author believes the machine runs in cycles and you should tally them for a while...>>

I didn't want to say anything about this author - Victor Royer - but I feel I must. He writes in the Midwest Gaming magazine - and perpetuates a lot of slot myths, including looking for machine "cycles," as if one can use past performance to predict future performance. This is not just unhelpful VP information - but it is dangerous - since people could use it instead of learning proper strategies and choosing good games.

As is true with most bad-advice gambling books, there are usually some kernels of truth - but a beginning or uninformed player might not be able to sort out what is true and what is a cruel untruth.

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____________________
Jean $cott - The Frugal Gambler
Pre-pub sale on for January release of
"Tax Help for the Frugal Gambler"
at http://www.FrugalGambler.biz

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#5

Michelle Yamaguchi wrote:

Remember, I'm just the messenger - I didn't write the book!

My comments were in direct response to the described book contents and
I apologize if they appeared to be more personally directed.

The author believes the machine runs in cycles and you should tally
them for a while, noting # of flushes, straights, etc. In DB he
states the EV is to keep the two pair and go for the FH. He thinks
if you are keeping note of how the machine is dealing, if you have
seen lots of 3 of a kind, but does not give many FH, if you have
QQx44, you would keep just the high pair and go for something better
on the draw. If the machine is dealing lots of 4 of a kind or FH,
you would keep the two pair. He further says if you have two low
pair, you would keep them both.

Well, I guess I should take a take a positive approach and welcome
books like this since they go far in ensuring that even the best
paytables continue to be profitable to casinos.

But I cringe everytime someone who's managed to be influenced by such
a book shows up in this group :frowning:

- H.

#6

But I cringe everytime someone who's managed to be influenced by

such

a book shows up in this group :frowning:

I apologize if this has already been posted, but according to
Winpoker, choosing Aces only over Aces and Kings in DB is an
astonishing loss of:

Best play (hold both As and Ks)....8.8980
Aces only..........................8.8175

Winpoker calls this a "minor error." True, all those minor errors do
add up, but over what timeframe? This was described as a short term
strategy alternative, and I'll just assume here that the author means
a few hours of recreational play. Under those circumstances, I see
nothing wrong with the risk/reward component of that play.

lb
"variance giveth, variance taketh away"

#7

I have bought the Frugal software, a bunch of books,
etc. I am too lazy to memorize the tough parts of
strategy tables such as penalty card situations. Is it
not correct that in DDB, it is correct to keep AA only
from two pair? I started played serious VP in 2002,
snared not a single royal or W2-G in 2002, was getting
discouraged but have 5 W2-G's in 2003, my first one
was for $2000 in a Shreveport casino for hitting 4
Aces with the kicker in DDB. I thought it was the best
game I could find there, think it was short pay and
the State of Louisiana hit me for $120 in Taxes. I may
be able to get that back, but it will require a lot of
paper work etc.

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