new VP Book "Powerful Profits"

[Michelle_Yamaguchi]

On 12/11 I posted to the list to inquire if anyone had read this book, before I bought it. No one even bothered to reply back to the list (but I think that was the week people were busy chastising Bob, so as a newbie I stayed out of the fray). I ordered it from Amazon anyways and received it this week. So far some of the info I've found within is available in other VP books (choosing pay tables, machines, etc), but the author deviates in one chapter by discussing the use of the pure statistical models when playing "optimal" strategy vs. the use of "reality", by which he means the average person ("tourist") will not play the hundreds of hours straight in a row necessary to make up the millions of hands that the stats are based on. Therefore he suggests in certain games, on certain hands, that you might make a personal judgement call to not play the "optimal" strategy but the second-best choice in the strategy, such as in DB 10/7 you might have two high pair but only keep one of
them to go for the 4 of a kind instead of a FH. I guess you could call it short-term strategy. He does say you should KNOW the optimal, and then make your own decision when to deviate from it.

I have yet to digest all of it as I just got the book on Friday.

M.Y.

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[Harry_Porter]

Michelle Yamaguchi wrote:

... but the author deviates in one chapter by discussing the use of
the pure statistical models when playing "optimal" strategy vs. the
use of "reality", by which he means the average person ("tourist")
will not play the hundreds of hours straight in a row necessary to
make up the millions of hands that the stats are based on.
Therefore he suggests in certain games, on certain hands, that you
might make a personal judgement call to not play the "optimal"
strategy but the second-best choice in the strategy, such as in DB
10/7 you might have two high pair but only keep one of
them to go for the 4 of a kind instead of a FH. I guess you
could call it short-term strategy. He does say you should KNOW the
optimal, and then make your own decision when to deviate from it.

It's clear from reading posts over time that the idea that "optimal"
strategy is really only applicable over the very long term is one
that many find very seductive.

However, there are few suggestions in video poker that are
potentially more harmful to the player than that they might
reasonably pursue alternative short-term strategies. In most cases
the modifications to strategy strongly affect short-term results in
an adverse manner.

The strategy change suggested by the book author that's noted above
is a prime example. In breaking two pair in DB to aggressively go
after quads, the player will reduce the number of valuable full
houses hit, incurring a cost that will exceed the added credits won
from a greater number of quads. Even in the short-run there's a very
large confidence that the player will wind up behind as a consequence
of such a "short-term strategy".

There are a very limited number of strategy changes that might be
reasonably justified by a player not expecting to be in the game
for "millions of hands". However, the ones that are frequently
discussed hurt, not help, the player in the short run.

- Harry

[Chandler1]

On 12/11 I posted to the list to inquire if anyone had read this book, before I bought it. No one even bothered to reply back to the list (but I think that was the week people were busy chastising Bob, so as a newbie I stayed out of the fray).

Sometimes not replying is the wisest course... or at least the least absurd;-) In the case of the book, it may be that no one who reads the list has read it. I haven't, therefore no reply.

  I ordered it from Amazon anyways and received it this week. So far some of the info I've found within is available in other VP books (choosing pay tables, machines, etc), but the author deviates in one chapter by discussing the use of the pure statistical models when playing "optimal" strategy vs. the use of "reality", by which he means the average person ("tourist") will not play the hundreds of hours straight in a row necessary to make up the millions of hands that the stats are based on. Therefore he suggests in certain games, on certain hands, that you might make a personal judgement call to not play the "optimal" strategy but the second-best choice in the strategy, such as in DB 10/7 you might have two high pair but only keep one of
them to go for the 4 of a kind instead of a FH. I guess you could call it short-term strategy. He does say you should KNOW the optimal, and then make your own decision when to deviate from it.

I haven't analyzed it but that particular strategy change could cost a fair amount. IMO, this is what one should know before making a strategy change. What does it cost (if anything) and is that cost a good value for what ever you get out of it. Simply knowing optimal strategy doesn't tell you much.

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At 01:20 PM 12/21/2003, you wrote: