vpFREE2 Forums

VP11 · January 14, 2020, 4:45pm

Thanks Harry! The 5th Ace is unsuited and I hadn't considered the
interference with straights, flushes, and royals. I have yet to see
anyone playing any of the 5 Aces games at Boulder Station.
--Rita

···

From: "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@verizon.net>

......You haven't stated how this fifth Ace is suited. If it's a
"non-suited" card (akin to a wild card) that would cut into flushes,
as well as straight and royal flushes.....

Rita wrote: 

Has anyone evaluated the new 5 Aces games? The $1 JoB at Boulder 
Station has the following pay table 
5 Aces 6000 
RF 4000 
SF 500 
4 Aces 400 
4 2s-4s 200 
4 5s-Ks 125 
FH 45 
Flush 30 
Straight 20 
3 Kind 15 
2 Pair 5 
JoB 5 
The 5th Ace seems to help in getting 4 Aces and for the big payoff 
with 5 Aces. 

 
 
Using some rough approximations, this looks like it could be playable, 
however, some more precise calculations are necessary. 
 
Let's use 9/6/4 DB as a starting point. That's a 96.4% game. But 
the quads pay half those of DB, which contribute 16%. So back out 8% 
to 88.4%. The SF pays double, so add in .6% and now we're at 89%. 
 
To become nominally respectable, we need around a 10% from the 
additional Ace. 
 
There's only one selection of 5 Aces compared to 4 suited RF's. With 
a 2% contribution from the RF's and a 1.5x payout on the Aces, the 
quint Aces add around .8%. We're now at 89.8%. 
 
Quad Aces normally contribute 3.6%. At half the payout that would be 
1.8% that we've included above. However, there are five selections of 
quad Aces in this game for every one in standard DB. That gives us an 
additional 7.2%, for a total of 97% now. 
 
In the standard game there are 24 distinct high pairs. Here an 
additional 4 are added. With a 21.4% contribution normally, this adds 
3.5%, now giving us 100.5%. 
 
However, there's going to be a respectable giveback in that having a 
fifth Ace in the deck will prove to be an interference that will 
reduce the frequency of certain other hands. 
 
For example, you'd expect fewer straights since an Ace would show up 
in the hand more frequently and it's harder to form an Ace hi straight 
than other straights. Ace low straights are exceedingly rare. Count 
on fewer quads outside of the Aces as an offset to return as well. I 
could see where this would cut at least .4% 
 
You haven't stated how this fifth Ace is suited. If it's a 
"non-suited" card (akin to a wild card) that would cut into flushes, 
as well as straight and royal flushes. 
 
Assuming the extra Ace is a spade, or another suit, I've accounted for 
a near-breakeven game. However, the "interference" may account for a 
considerably higher reduction to return and all these numbers are very 
rough. But I'd say it's more likely the game comes in above 99% than 
below. 
 
All this said, I'm very suspicious of my calculations. Nine out of 
ten times (picking a ratio out of the air :), anytime a novelty is 
added to a standard vp game you can count on a VERY poor game (95%-97% 
seems to be par). 
 
It's an interesting game, if nothing else. 
 
- Harry 
 
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Harry_Porter · January 14, 2020, 6:06pm

Rita wrote:

Thanks Harry! The 5th Ace is unsuited and I hadn't considered the
interference with straights, flushes, and royals.

That would shave well over 1% off the game, explaining the 98% ER
Howard cited from the Dancer article. (I wasn't able to find a link
to the article, btw. It would appear that this isn't one that they've
published on the internet.)

- H.

Bill_Velek1 · January 14, 2020, 6:06pm

Harry Porter wrote:

Rita wrote:
> Thanks Harry! The 5th Ace is unsuited and I hadn't considered the
> interference with straights, flushes, and royals.

If it isn't treated as a wild suit, then it will reduce the probabilities for all flushes, including Royals and 5-high STFLs. As for straights, even though I haven't done any math on it, I'm inclined to agree with you because even though the 5th Ace increases the chances to get an Ace-Hi or Ace-Lo straight, I think that this is more than offset by the reduced chances of getting the other straights because of the higher number of hands that are then possible; of course, that is not entirely clear because of the disproportionate number of draws that enhance the possibility of an Ace-Hi straight, such as holding 1-, 2-, or 3-Hi.

Of course, the extra Ace also increases the chance of making other paying combinations of Aces (quad Aces, trip-Aces, pair-Aces), and the quad Aces is more important in Bonus games in comparison with just JoB (Rita had actually given a paytable for BP rather than JoB).

Actually, this is a somewhat more complex analysis, requiring separate calculations depending upon whether dealt hands contain a regular Ace or the no-suit-Ace. For instance, if you draw a hand that contains nothing worth keeping except possibly the no-suit Ace, is it a Razgu/Nada/Junk hand, or do you keep the Ace or throw the entire hand away? Normally one would keep a lone Ace, but I'm not so sure that this is the case with the no-suit Ace because it automatically eliminates all flushes, including the Royal and 5-Hi STFL. I'd have to do the math before I could feel comfortable with making that decision. I haven't seen Bob Dancer's article, but I'm sure that he took everything into consideration.

All these new and more complicated games are just one more sign to me that profitable vp will continue its decline until it is probably no longer worth playing if anyone expects to make any money at it in the long-term. <sighhhh> I missed the wave again.

Good luck to all.

Bill Velek

New Game - 5 Aces JoB