Hi,
longtime lurker here. I appreciate all the useful advice that I've read from the many excellent contributors. The best games at my home casino are $1 9/7DB, 98.91%DW, or 9/5JOB. With bounceback free-play and promos,
I calculated another 1% - 1 1/2% depending on the promo. I've been playing 9/7DB but the variance has sometimes been tough to swallow. I've got the strategy down for all 3 games except for penalty cards. Any recommendations on game selection?
Kimbaed1 wrote: longtime lurker here. I appreciate all the useful advice that I've read from the many excellent contributors. The best games at my home casino are $1 9/7DB, 98.91%DW, or 9/5JOB. With bounceback free-play and promos,
I calculated another 1% - 1 1/2% depending on the promo. I've been playing 9/7DB but the variance has sometimes been tough to swallow. I've got the strategy down for all 3 games except for penalty cards. Any recommendations on game selection? Accepting your info at face value --- stay away from 9-5 Jacks. It's low variance, but it requires 1.55% in extras just to break even. And your casino doesn't offer that much. 15-9-4-4-3 DW has a lower variance than 9-7 DB --- but at a price of 0.2%. That's a high price --- about $6 - $10 per hour, depending on how fast you play. There will be days at DW that you're not going to like the variance either. Any day you don't hit the royal or at least one set of deuces, you're going to be booking a loser at that game as weil. For me, dollars per hour is king --- so I'd stay with DB AND learn the penalty cards (if that's within your capabilities). Sure there will be bad days --- but there will be more good days with this game than either of the other two. Bob
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Thanks Bob,
I already have your Winner's Guide for DB. I'm primarily a Blackjack player, but I enjoy mixing in some vp play if I'm there on promo days.
I'll learn the penalty cards.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@...> wrote:
Kimbaed1 wrote: longtime lurker here. I appreciate all the useful advice that I've read from the many excellent contributors. The best games at my home casino are $1 9/7DB, 98.91%DW, or 9/5JOB. With bounceback free-play and promos,
I calculated another 1% - 1 1/2% depending on the promo. I've been playing 9/7DB but the variance has sometimes been tough to swallow. I've got the strategy down for all 3 games except for penalty cards. Any recommendations on game selection? Accepting your info at face value --- stay away from 9-5 Jacks. It's low variance, but it requires 1.55% in extras just to break even. And your casino doesn't offer that much. 15-9-4-4-3 DW has a lower variance than 9-7 DB --- but at a price of 0.2%. That's a high price --- about $6 - $10 per hour, depending on how fast you play. There will be days at DW that you're not going to like the variance either. Any day you don't hit the royal or at least one set of deuces, you're going to be booking a loser at that game as weil. For me, dollars per hour is king --- so I'd stay with DB AND learn the penalty cards (if that's within your capabilities). Sure there will be bad days --- but there will be more good days with this game than either of the other two. BobSwitch to: Text-Only, Daily Digest Unsubscribe Terms of Use
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Is bankroll a concern? The Kelly bankroll can be approximated by variance/edge bets, so under the Kelly system, a reduction in edge could be justified if there was a greater reduction in the corresponding variance. Likewise an increase in edge is possibly not justified if there is a greater increase in variance (it would depend on what your bankroll was). BTW, FWIW, for 9/7/5 double bonus plus 1% you're looking at an approximate Kelly bankroll of 28.6/.001=28,600 bets = $143,000 on five coin dollars. And N0 is 28.6/.001/.001= 28.6 million hands! All assuming near computer perfect play!
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kimbaed1@..." <kimbaed1@...> wrote:
Thanks Bob,
I already have your Winner's Guide for DB. I'm primarily a Blackjack player, but I enjoy mixing in some vp play if I'm there on promo days.
I'll learn the penalty cards.--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@> wrote:
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> Kimbaed1 wrote: longtime lurker here. I appreciate all the useful advice that I've read from the many excellent contributors. The best games at my home casino are $1 9/7DB, 98.91%DW, or 9/5JOB. With bounceback free-play and promos,
> I calculated another 1% - 1 1/2% depending on the promo. I've been playing 9/7DB but the variance has sometimes been tough to swallow. I've got the strategy down for all 3 games except for penalty cards. Any recommendations on game selection? Accepting your info at face value --- stay away from 9-5 Jacks. It's low variance, but it requires 1.55% in extras just to break even. And your casino doesn't offer that much. 15-9-4-4-3 DW has a lower variance than 9-7 DB --- but at a price of 0.2%. That's a high price --- about $6 - $10 per hour, depending on how fast you play. There will be days at DW that you're not going to like the variance either. Any day you don't hit the royal or at least one set of deuces, you're going to be booking a loser at that game as weil. For me, dollars per hour is king --- so I'd stay with DB AND learn the penalty cards (if that's within your capabilities). Sure there will be bad days --- but there will be more good days with this game than either of the other two. Bob
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The point multiplier promos are only for limited hours, so I'll only be playing 2-4 hrs. per week. Bankroll is my main concern. I'm looking at a bankroll of $20,000, replenishable to the tune of $1000/month. On VPW, I play 800 hands/hr at 99.8% without penalty cards.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
Is bankroll a concern? The Kelly bankroll can be approximated by variance/edge bets, so under the Kelly system, a reduction in edge could be justified if there was a greater reduction in the corresponding variance. Likewise an increase in edge is possibly not justified if there is a greater increase in variance (it would depend on what your bankroll was). BTW, FWIW, for 9/7/5 double bonus plus 1% you're looking at an approximate Kelly bankroll of 28.6/.001=28,600 bets = $143,000 on five coin dollars. And N0 is 28.6/.001/.001= 28.6 million hands! All assuming near computer perfect play!
A couple of points:
You're getting a 0.2% error rate on VPW. Your error rate in the casino will be worse, as casinos are notorius for sticky keys, bad spot lighting, free alcohol, noise levels over OSHA standards and other distractions. Try playing VPW again, but this time after a drink or two, with a spotlight shining on your display, with a cheap radio playing an annoying song really loud, and another cheap radio playing a different annoying song really loud, with a TV show or game for distraction, and a really uncomfortable chair, and see what error rate you get.
At 2-4 hours per week you are unlikely to ever get into any type of long term, so your results will be dominated by luck rather than skill, as long as you are ok with that. The N0 number is variance/edge/edge hands, you need to play more than that to get into the zone where skill is dominant over luck.
A key question to ask is: what are your goals for this gamble? If it is to win, it just doesn't look likely. If it is to just hang out in a casino, it's probably ok, although you might be better off just hanging out at the craps table or making a few sports bets or even penny or nickel keno. These days there are plenty of promotions and drawings and such that don't require any play at all, see if you can find them and play them instead, there is no downside risk to your bankroll, the only thing you waste is time. Casinos these days tend to penalize people who play the better video poker games, whether they win or lose, so often you'll find you get much better offers if you play something else, coin in is almost never a factor anymore, except that the less coin in you have the more likely it is you will get a better offer. The top cards might get you a line pass but they also are likely to get you backed off or no mailed from the better offers as well, unless you consistently lose 20K/year or more.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kimbaed1@..." <kimbaed1@...> wrote:
The point multiplier promos are only for limited hours, so I'll only be playing 2-4 hrs. per week. Bankroll is my main concern. I'm looking at a bankroll of $20,000, replenishable to the tune of $1000/month. On VPW, I play 800 hands/hr at 99.8% without penalty cards.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>
> Is bankroll a concern? The Kelly bankroll can be approximated by variance/edge bets, so under the Kelly system, a reduction in edge could be justified if there was a greater reduction in the corresponding variance. Likewise an increase in edge is possibly not justified if there is a greater increase in variance (it would depend on what your bankroll was). BTW, FWIW, for 9/7/5 double bonus plus 1% you're looking at an approximate Kelly bankroll of 28.6/.001=28,600 bets = $143,000 on five coin dollars. And N0 is 28.6/.001/.001= 28.6 million hands! All assuming near computer perfect play!
As I mentioned earlier, blackjack has been my play at this casino. My in-laws have been playing 9/7DB and based upon their bouceback freeplay, I've determined they are getting about 1%. Freeplay is regularly .08% but on multipier days it would be .56% - .8% for select time periods. Under $1 denom the games are unplayable. I have enjoyed playing some full-pay vp while in Vegas but only at quarters up to this point. My goal was to determine whether this play was worth my time and the associated bankroll risk.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
A couple of points:
You're getting a 0.2% error rate on VPW. Your error rate in the casino will be worse, as casinos are notorius for sticky keys, bad spot lighting, free alcohol, noise levels over OSHA standards and other distractions. Try playing VPW again, but this time after a drink or two, with a spotlight shining on your display, with a cheap radio playing an annoying song really loud, and another cheap radio playing a different annoying song really loud, with a TV show or game for distraction, and a really uncomfortable chair, and see what error rate you get.
At 2-4 hours per week you are unlikely to ever get into any type of long term, so your results will be dominated by luck rather than skill, as long as you are ok with that. The N0 number is variance/edge/edge hands, you need to play more than that to get into the zone where skill is dominant over luck.
A key question to ask is: what are your goals for this gamble? If it is to win, it just doesn't look likely. If it is to just hang out in a casino, it's probably ok, although you might be better off just hanging out at the craps table or making a few sports bets or even penny or nickel keno. These days there are plenty of promotions and drawings and such that don't require any play at all, see if you can find them and play them instead, there is no downside risk to your bankroll, the only thing you waste is time. Casinos these days tend to penalize people who play the better video poker games, whether they win or lose, so often you'll find you get much better offers if you play something else, coin in is almost never a factor anymore, except that the less coin in you have the more likely it is you will get a better offer. The top cards might get you a line pass but they also are likely to get you backed off or no mailed from the better offers as well, unless you consistently lose 20K/year or more.
It all depends on your error rate in the casino. 9/7/5 double bonus +1.5% but minus a 0.6% error rate is a breakeven proposition, which has a 50% risk of losing, but longterm near 100% risk of ruin for practical bankrolls because as you play the swings increase and eventually one of the downswings will bust out finite bankrolls. You could save a lot of time by just putting it all on red on the roulette wheel, the odds would be 18/37 (48.6%) that you would double up and 19/37 (51.4%) that you would bust out. Get a marker/loan for your bet and maybe you can negotiate a discount or extra comps if you lose. In general, players have several percents of error rate, that's how casinos make money on machines rated over 100% return. Now, someone like Bob Dancer probably has a 0% error rate, though if I remember correctly even he admits to making the occasional play error, but he practices a lot. So if you practice a lot, and are talented, you could get to 0% error rate. On the other hand, maybe you're just average and have to accept a few percent worth of errors.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kimbaed1@..." <kimbaed1@...> wrote:
As I mentioned earlier, blackjack has been my play at this casino. My in-laws have been playing 9/7DB and based upon their bouceback freeplay, I've determined they are getting about 1%. Freeplay is regularly .08% but on multipier days it would be .56% - .8% for select time periods. Under $1 denom the games are unplayable. I have enjoyed playing some full-pay vp while in Vegas but only at quarters up to this point. My goal was to determine whether this play was worth my time and the associated bankroll risk.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>
> A couple of points:
>
> You're getting a 0.2% error rate on VPW. Your error rate in the casino will be worse, as casinos are notorius for sticky keys, bad spot lighting, free alcohol, noise levels over OSHA standards and other distractions. Try playing VPW again, but this time after a drink or two, with a spotlight shining on your display, with a cheap radio playing an annoying song really loud, and another cheap radio playing a different annoying song really loud, with a TV show or game for distraction, and a really uncomfortable chair, and see what error rate you get.
>
> At 2-4 hours per week you are unlikely to ever get into any type of long term, so your results will be dominated by luck rather than skill, as long as you are ok with that. The N0 number is variance/edge/edge hands, you need to play more than that to get into the zone where skill is dominant over luck.
>
> A key question to ask is: what are your goals for this gamble? If it is to win, it just doesn't look likely. If it is to just hang out in a casino, it's probably ok, although you might be better off just hanging out at the craps table or making a few sports bets or even penny or nickel keno. These days there are plenty of promotions and drawings and such that don't require any play at all, see if you can find them and play them instead, there is no downside risk to your bankroll, the only thing you waste is time. Casinos these days tend to penalize people who play the better video poker games, whether they win or lose, so often you'll find you get much better offers if you play something else, coin in is almost never a factor anymore, except that the less coin in you have the more likely it is you will get a better offer. The top cards might get you a line pass but they also are likely to get you backed off or no mailed from the better offers as well, unless you consistently lose 20K/year or more.