vpFREE2 Forums

My Dumb Question of the Day

#1

Laugh at me, poke me, whatever you choose, but I have a question that may be construed as dumb. But since I've never claimed to be smart, perhaps I can get away with it. :slight_smile:

I have never hit a royal flush in 2 years of playing VP (.25 JoB). I play once or twice a week, and have become pretty good, and fast. I've practiced with WinPoker for about 5 years.

According to the stats on WinPoker, a royal on a 9/6 JoB occurs every 40390.55 hands. I realize this is with perfect play, and may occur more often or even more infrequently. By my calculations, I have played approximately 128,000 hands in the last two years. This a very conservative figure.

Here's where the dumb question comes in: If and when the royal does hit around the 40,000 hands dealt, does it occur on a specific machine, a specific bank of machines, or hands accumulated by a player over time? I'm guessing the player, but just not sure so I thought I'd ask.

Thanks,

Kurt

#2

Here's where the dumb question comes in: If and when the royal does hit around
the 40,000 hands dealt, does it occur on a specific machine, a specific >bank
of machines, or hands accumulated by a player over time? I'm guessing the
player, but just not sure so I thought I'd ask.

Others may disagree, but my answer would be, "Yes, all of the above" The
statistical "normal" distribution that suggests one RF every 40,000-odd hands
can apply to any of the three, but the one thing about "normal" is that there's
no normal. Over a gazillion hands, there should be about 1 RF every 40,000
hands, but there is nothing to say that in that gazillion hands of either a
player, a machine, or a bank of machines there weren't two straight RF's or that
the interval between RF's wasn't 200,000 hands. Just that over the long run, on
the average, there should be one every 40,000-odd hands. But as John Maynard
Keynes said, "In the long run, we're all dead"

Guru

P.S. I think (but may disremember as a result of CRAFT) that Bill Cosby used the
dumb question of the day phrase referring to the question your spouse wakes you
up in the middle of the night to ask. Therefore, your question does NOT qualify.

Certainly the game is rigged. Don’t let that stop you; if you don’t bet, you
can’t win. -Lazarus Long

In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice,
there is. -Yogi Berra
There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation
to cope with a statistical universe. -Robert Heinlein

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