vpFREE2 Forums

my bad statistics

#1

I play about 90% of my VP on 5 play machines, 10% on single line. For 2006
I have 10 royals: 5 on single line, 5 on 5-play.

In previous years it also seemed to me that 5-play wasn't producing as many
royals as it should.

Purists may say I don't have statistically significant results. But I think
something is strange with 5-play myself.

···

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I don't keep statistics on quads, but I'm thinking they are also strangely
lower than they should be. After all - 5 lines should give 5 (or close to it)
times the quads and royals of a single line. True, there is some
correlation, but not to this extent.
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And is it me, or does it just seem like VP machines in general are getting
worse over the years as far as number of quads? Okay, maybe that part is just
me. But I'm telling you, the comparison of royals for 5 play versus single
play is real.
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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

Just to clarify, do you spend 90% of your time on 5-play, 90% of your
bankroll is dedicated to 5-play, 90% of your points come from 5-play,
90% of your hands played comes from 5-play, or what. Depending on how
you measure your play, or what?

I would be interested in a few more details, and maybe we can see how
significant the differences are.

- John

I play about 90% of my VP on 5 play machines, 10% on single line.

For 2006

I have 10 royals: 5 on single line, 5 on 5-play.

In previous years it also seemed to me that 5-play wasn't producing

as many

royals as it should.

Purists may say I don't have statistically significant results. But

I think

something is strange with 5-play myself.
---------------
I don't keep statistics on quads, but I'm thinking they are also

strangely

lower than they should be. After all - 5 lines should give 5 (or

close to it)

times the quads and royals of a single line. True, there is some
correlation, but not to this extent.
-------------

And is it me, or does it just seem like VP machines in general are

getting

worse over the years as far as number of quads? Okay, maybe that

part is just

me. But I'm telling you, the comparison of royals for 5 play versus

single

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, misscraps@... wrote:

play is real.
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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

I have two comments.
  If you want the group math-heads to run some numbers for you,
they'll need more than % of time. They need THE hours and # of hands
per hour.

WIthout judgement on your situation, I believe anyone can analyze
their VP play stats and find SOMETHING in there that is out of whack.
But to jump to the conclusion that specifically 5-play machines aren't
'producing' is a stretch. Were you implying 5-play as a class of
machine type is gaffed? I think you stopped just short of stating this.

If your single line RF total turns out to be within the expected
range, it appears (without seeing the numbers) the 5-play are lower
than expected. But maybe the 5-play is within expected range and you
are much higher than expected with your single line play. Hmmm. Maybe
you are way more lucky than average and the mood of your posts should
be buoyant!

As a point of reference, my swag of my VP play is
270 hrs/yr total. 8 RFs/yr total.

190 hrs Single line (even mix of DDB, KBJW, BP and DW) with 5 RFs.
60 hrs 3-play (DDB mostly) with 2 RFs.
20 hrs of 'other' (50-play, 5/10-play, Multistrike) with 1 RF.

Hands per hr:
single line: 800
3-play: 600 (times 3 draws per)
'other': 300

I don't count RFs in 50-play, but I don't play it much and honestly
can't remember more than two in the last 4 yrs.

It's not too hard to run the numbers for RF frequency. For me:
Single: 190 x 800 / 5 = 30000 hands per RF
3play: 60 x 600 x 3 / 2 = 54000
'other': 20 x 300 x ~5 / 1 = 30000

If your average VP game has a RF cycle of 42000 hands, I think any
result +/- 12000 hands is within an expected std deviation. And
anything less than a couple thousand hours of play is in my opinion
way too low to be a valid statistical base from which to draw conclusions.

I think it's a mistake for you to concentrate on RF frequency.
Your expected return from quads for instance in non-wild games has a
larger impact on your profitability. But it's a lot of work to
monitor those.

I put much more stock into my final profit or loss divided by my
coin-in. That's a real return %. It's usually within +/- 5%.

And of course the bigger bottom line is:
Did you Profit?
and
Did you have fun? (asked only if you didn't profit)

Cheers!

~MARK in Seattle

--- misscraps wrote:

I play about 90% of my VP on 5 play machines, 10% on single line.

For 2006

I have 10 royals: 5 on single line, 5 on 5-play.

In previous years it also seemed to me that 5-play wasn't producing

as many

···

royals as it should.