I haven't seen this question addressed anywhere, but I feel that it
is important. How can we estimate the EV of Multistrike video poker
when you can get a random "free pass" to the next line up at any
random time? What is the frequencies of these free passes up to the
next line? It would seem that these would seriously affect the EV of
the game, yet I haven't seen anyone quantify this mathematically.
According to the Bob Dancer strategy article, Multistrike 9/6 Jacks
should pay out 99.79% on max coin bet (noticably better than the
99.54% that standard 9/6 Jacks pays out). However, he dismisses
the "free passes" as random events without discussing their
mathematical probability of occuring. How can we quantify the EV of
the game as 99.79% when we can't quantify the randomness of the free
passes? The strongest reason that we all play VP is that we are
completely aware of the odds and the math. We know that the deck is
dealt in a truly random fashion from 1 deck of cards, and thus we can
quantify each exact strategy play perfectly, along with the long run
EV of each play (and thus the game as a whole). Shouldn't the random
event of a "free pass" alter the EV of the game dramatically?
Hopefully there is a simple answer to this question that I am unaware
of, but I hope that people haven't made a big oversight here.
Secondly, and this might sound a little paranoid, but if the game has
a random event built into it like a "free pass" up to the next line,
then are people absolutely sure that the game must conform to
standard Video Poker gaming rules which enforce that the cards must
come from 1 fairly dealt deck? What if a random event like a "free
pass" actually means that the game is more like a slot machine now,
with its own preset randomness to any fashion that the casino
desires. Instead of showing fruit, sevens, and bars like a slot
machine does, it instead just shows playing cards, but they are not
coming from 1 honest randomly distributed deck? Am I way off base
here, or is this a distinct possibility?
I hope that people have a quantifiable answer to this one. If people
just say that the free pass just happens whenever, then how does
anyone really know the EV of the game over the long run.
Anyway, sorry that this went on for so long, but I felt that the
point was important to make.
I also posted this question on the accvp yahoo video poker group, but
I wanted to ask the question here as well.
John