vpFREE2 Forums

Multiple progressive machines

#1

On multiline progressives that have a royal progressive on each hand, I average them and proceed as if it were a single-line progressive with that jackpot. Someone may recommend a more sophisticated method.

So where's Frank Kneeland?

P. S. Regarding the confidence quantifier he posted a lot about a few months ago, I just saw this on his website. No indication of when it was written -

"If you are coming to this site to download "The Confidence Quantifier" mentioned in my article this month in Blackjack Insider Newsletter please check back in about a week. And sorry for the delay. The utility did not pass the final code check and I'm having to re-write parts of it. I will release it just as quickly as it's working well and it should be soon."

https://www.progressivevp.com/

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@...> wrote:

I am wondering about machines with multiple progressive jackpots, say three, five or ten handed machines with a separate jackpot for each hand. At a single hand machine, the strategy is obvious, sit down when the jackpot is high and play until it hits. In addition, it's clear how meter rise affects the expected return, especially if you can take the entire bank.

Does anyone have any thoughts on strategies for multi hand progressives. You still sit down when the progressive is high but what is the new stopping rule? How does meter rise affect the game return?

If you saw a machine where the meter rise was greater than the house edge on the base jackpot, how would that change the optimal strategy? For example, would the optimal strategy ever be play until a dealt royal?

#2

That part is definitely optimal because expectations are linear meaning the expected value of aX+bY is aE(X)+bE(Y). I'm still not sure about how to make decisions about when to play the machine though.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, savorvpx <savorvpx@...> wrote:

On multiline progressives that have a royal progressive on each hand, I average them and proceed as if it were a single-line progressive with that jackpot. Someone may recommend a more sophisticated method.

So where's Frank Kneeland?

P. S. Regarding the confidence quantifier he posted a lot about a few months ago, I just saw this on his website. No indication of when it was written -

"If you are coming to this site to download "The Confidence Quantifier" mentioned in my article this month in Blackjack Insider Newsletter please check back in about a week. And sorry for the delay. The utility did not pass the final code check and I'm having to re-write parts of it. I will release it just as quickly as it's working well and it should be soon."

https://www.progressivevp.com/

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@> wrote:
>
> I am wondering about machines with multiple progressive jackpots, say three, five or ten handed machines with a separate jackpot for each hand. At a single hand machine, the strategy is obvious, sit down when the jackpot is high and play until it hits. In addition, it's clear how meter rise affects the expected return, especially if you can take the entire bank.
>
> Does anyone have any thoughts on strategies for multi hand progressives. You still sit down when the progressive is high but what is the new stopping rule? How does meter rise affect the game return?
>
> If you saw a machine where the meter rise was greater than the house edge on the base jackpot, how would that change the optimal strategy? For example, would the optimal strategy ever be play until a dealt royal?

#3

Someone told me I needed to check out the posts on vpfree and reply, because folks had been wondering where I was.

I was 95% complete on posting the utility and when I plugged data into it I found a bug that proved very hard to find. So I basically had to go back to square one and check each individual cell reference, which if you know anything about spreadsheets is really time consuming and slow. I should have it ready by the end of this month.

As far as where I've been: This month has been bizarre, to say the least. An old friend sent me suicide note out of the blue by email in the middle of the night. I had to contact psych services and you'll be happy to know they got to her in time. The next few days were spent in the hospital comforting her.

Then a good friend's daughter decided to tell me her (rather than her own parents) roommate had molested her and I spent the next week getting her home to safety and getting her counseling.

There's more, but I think you get the idea. A lot of unexpected stuff there was no way I could ignore. Things seem to be retuning to normal.

I'll put the Confidence Quantifier on the top of my to do list and sorry for all the delays.

Try to remember it's free...and contrary to popular opinion and perhaps even my own opinion (before this month) I apparently do have a life. All things VP took a very back seat recently...I hope you all understand.

~FK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@...> wrote:

> So where's Frank Kneeland?
>
> P. S. Regarding the confidence quantifier he posted a lot about a few months ago, I just saw this on his website. No indication of when it was written -
>
> "If you are coming to this site to download "The Confidence Quantifier" mentioned in my article this month in Blackjack Insider Newsletter please check back in about a week. And sorry for the delay. The utility did not pass the final code check and I'm having to re-write parts of it. I will release it just as quickly as it's working well and it should be soon."

#4

Same as any other gamble/investment. If you're providing 100% of the stake and the bet size is less than the stake times the edge divided by the variance then it's game on, otherwise no dice. If you can get someone else to do the staking, you can afford to be much more agressive, depending on what happens if you lose the stake.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@...> wrote:

That part is definitely optimal because expectations are linear meaning the expected value of aX+bY is aE(X)+bE(Y). I'm still not sure about how to make decisions about when to play the machine though.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, savorvpx <savorvpx@> wrote:
>
> On multiline progressives that have a royal progressive on each hand, I average them and proceed as if it were a single-line progressive with that jackpot. Someone may recommend a more sophisticated method.
>
> So where's Frank Kneeland?
>
> P. S. Regarding the confidence quantifier he posted a lot about�a few months ago, I just saw this on his website. No indication of when it was written -
>
> "If you are coming to this site to download "The Confidence Quantifier" mentioned in my article this month in Blackjack Insider Newsletter please check back in about a week. And sorry for the delay. The utility did not pass the final code check and I'm having to re-write parts of it. I will release it just as quickly as it's working well and it should be soon."
>
> https://www.progressivevp.com/
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@> wrote:
> >
> > I am wondering about machines with multiple progressive jackpots, say three, five or ten handed machines with a separate jackpot for each hand. At a single hand machine, the strategy is obvious, sit down when the jackpot is high and play until it hits. In addition, it's clear how meter rise affects the expected return, especially if you can take the entire bank.
> >
> > Does anyone have any thoughts on strategies for multi hand progressives. You still sit down when the progressive is high but what is the new stopping rule? How does meter rise affect the game return?
> >
> > If you saw a machine where the meter rise was greater than the house edge on the base jackpot, how would that change the optimal strategy? For example, would the optimal strategy ever be play until a dealt royal?����
>

#5

The problem is that calculating your EV on a session is complicated by the fact that there is no clear stopping strategy. Figuring meter rise into the calculation is important but its not clear how to do it.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

Same as any other gamble/investment. If you're providing 100% of the stake and the bet size is less than the stake times the edge divided by the variance then it's game on, otherwise no dice. If you can get someone else to do the staking, you can afford to be much more agressive, depending on what happens if you lose the stake.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@> wrote:
>
>
>
> That part is definitely optimal because expectations are linear meaning the expected value of aX+bY is aE(X)+bE(Y). I'm still not sure about how to make decisions about when to play the machine though.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, savorvpx <savorvpx@> wrote:
> >
> > On multiline progressives that have a royal progressive on each hand, I average them and proceed as if it were a single-line progressive with that jackpot. Someone may recommend a more sophisticated method.
> >
> > So where's Frank Kneeland?
> >
> > P. S. Regarding the confidence quantifier he posted a lot about�a few months ago, I just saw this on his website. No indication of when it was written -
> >
> > "If you are coming to this site to download "The Confidence Quantifier" mentioned in my article this month in Blackjack Insider Newsletter please check back in about a week. And sorry for the delay. The utility did not pass the final code check and I'm having to re-write parts of it. I will release it just as quickly as it's working well and it should be soon."
> >
> > https://www.progressivevp.com/
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@> wrote:
> > >
> > > I am wondering about machines with multiple progressive jackpots, say three, five or ten handed machines with a separate jackpot for each hand. At a single hand machine, the strategy is obvious, sit down when the jackpot is high and play until it hits. In addition, it's clear how meter rise affects the expected return, especially if you can take the entire bank.
> > >
> > > Does anyone have any thoughts on strategies for multi hand progressives. You still sit down when the progressive is high but what is the new stopping rule? How does meter rise affect the game return?
> > >
> > > If you saw a machine where the meter rise was greater than the house edge on the base jackpot, how would that change the optimal strategy? For example, would the optimal strategy ever be play until a dealt royal?����
> >
>

#6

I think it's pretty clear. The clear possible stopping points are when a jackpot hits. If you play until a jackpot hits, then on average you get the meter rate. Otherwise you don't really get it, though you might get a portion of it. If on average you play a tenth of a cycle, then on average you will get a tenth of the meter rate. The EV is determined by your starting points plus whatever meter rate you are entitled to. If you play till a meter hits, you are entitled to the full meter rate, regardless of how many players you are competing with, because on average you will get it. Otherwise you have to discount meter rates because it becomes more likely someone else will get it when you are not playing. I'm pretty sure this is all in Frank's book which is pretty much the bible on progressive slots.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@...> wrote:

The problem is that calculating your EV on a session is complicated by the fact that there is no clear stopping strategy. Figuring meter rise into the calculation is important but its not clear how to do it.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>
> Same as any other gamble/investment. If you're providing 100% of the stake and the bet size is less than the stake times the edge divided by the variance then it's game on, otherwise no dice. If you can get someone else to do the staking, you can afford to be much more agressive, depending on what happens if you lose the stake.
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > That part is definitely optimal because expectations are linear meaning the expected value of aX+bY is aE(X)+bE(Y). I'm still not sure about how to make decisions about when to play the machine though.
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, savorvpx <savorvpx@> wrote:
> > >
> > > On multiline progressives that have a royal progressive on each hand, I average them and proceed as if it were a single-line progressive with that jackpot. Someone may recommend a more sophisticated method.
> > >
> > > So where's Frank Kneeland?
> > >
> > > P. S. Regarding the confidence quantifier he posted a lot about�a few months ago, I just saw this on his website. No indication of when it was written -
> > >
> > > "If you are coming to this site to download "The Confidence Quantifier" mentioned in my article this month in Blackjack Insider Newsletter please check back in about a week. And sorry for the delay. The utility did not pass the final code check and I'm having to re-write parts of it. I will release it just as quickly as it's working well and it should be soon."
> > >
> > > https://www.progressivevp.com/
> > >
> > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > I am wondering about machines with multiple progressive jackpots, say three, five or ten handed machines with a separate jackpot for each hand. At a single hand machine, the strategy is obvious, sit down when the jackpot is high and play until it hits. In addition, it's clear how meter rise affects the expected return, especially if you can take the entire bank.
> > > >
> > > > Does anyone have any thoughts on strategies for multi hand progressives. You still sit down when the progressive is high but what is the new stopping rule? How does meter rise affect the game return?
> > > >
> > > > If you saw a machine where the meter rise was greater than the house edge on the base jackpot, how would that change the optimal strategy? For example, would the optimal strategy ever be play until a dealt royal?����
> > >
> >
>

#7

nightoftheiguana2000 wrote:

I think it's pretty clear. The clear possible stopping points are when a jackpot hits. If you play until a jackpot hits, then on average you get the meter rate. Otherwise you don't really get it, though you might get a portion of it. If on average you play a tenth of a cycle, then on average you will get a tenth of the meter rate. The EV is determined by your starting points plus whatever meter rate you are entitled to. If you play till a meter hits, you are entitled to the full meter rate, regardless of how many players you are competing with, because on average you will get it.

This assumes that the level of competition is constant. When I first
started playing progressives, there was one with 6 machines that I was
going to play a lot. I calculated that playing the first half cycle
by myself, having 5 competitors come in after me, and then we all
played until it was hit, made my average jackpot equivalent to me
getting about half a cycle of meter movement.

#8

I wrote:

When I first >started playing progressives, there was one with 6 machines that I was
going to play a lot. I calculated that playing the first half cycle
by myself, having 5 competitors come in after me, and then we all
played until it was hit, made my average jackpot equivalent to me
getting about half a cycle of meter movement.

I believe that should have been that playing the first cycle, not half
cycle, by myself ended up with me getting half a cycle of meter
movement.

#9

Because in that situation you're sharing your first cycle of meter rise with 5 others, so you only get 1/6 of the meter rate of the first cycle for the times that you don't hit the jackpot in the first cycle. And as you said previously this assumes everyone plays about the same rate with about the same strategy, which might or might not be the case. Some players might be slow playing or siting at a machine reading a book waiting for a higher number, and so on.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

I wrote:

>When I first >started playing progressives, there was one with 6 machines that I was
>going to play a lot. I calculated that playing the first half cycle
>by myself, having 5 competitors come in after me, and then we all
>played until it was hit, made my average jackpot equivalent to me
>getting about half a cycle of meter movement.

I believe that should have been that playing the first cycle, not half
cycle, by myself ended up with me getting half a cycle of meter
movement.

#10

I'm pretty sure this is all in Frank's book which is pretty much the bible on progressive slots.

FK Reply:
It was indeed covered in my book in depth with exact formulas. But I also said in the book that it generally isn't worth worrying about unless you are dealing with multi-meters with a lot of meter-rise.

The phenomenon is called Meter-Disparity by the progressive players I know. I have a detailed description on how to figure out how much meter-disparity costs you, and a walk-through of a 5-7-T Double Bonus 5-Meter playing for any of the 5 meters and how "either or" plays are calculated when two or more meters bring the return to play level. It's all there, but here's the thing!

When I wrote it, I never expected even one single person to ever use it. It's all stuff that has an exact version and a seat of the pants version that's so much simpler no one does all the math.

I included it just in case, because I wanted the book to be complete.

I'd love to tell you that you need to know the long method and that you have to buy my book to learn it, but that simply isn't true.

Know that meter-disparity always costs you (and never helps you) and add a little to your start number.

~FK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

#11

I think you misunderstood Tom, nightoftheiguana2000.

He was saying the first cycle he played was unopposed (not shared) and then 5 other players piled on.

When everyone starts at the same time meter-rise is not shared, it counts full. Because though they can hit it away from you they are also adding to it. Their chance to hit the JP is perfectly counterbalanced by their contribution to it.

Someone getting on after you at a higher number is a completely different situation.

This is covered in my book under the subheading, "Getting Snapped Off".

~FK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

Because in that situation you're sharing your first cycle of meter rise with 5 others, so you only get 1/6 of the meter rate of the first cycle for the times that you don't hit the jackpot in the first cycle. And as you said previously this assumes everyone plays about the same rate with about the same strategy, which might or might not be the case. Some players might be slow playing or siting at a machine reading a book waiting for a higher number, and so on.

#12

I think we are in agreement. As Tom pointed out, my original statement was not completely defined. I should have said: if you play till the progressive is hit, AND all or most of the other machines are also being played simultaneously in a similar manner, no slow playing, then you can count the full meter progression rate in your EV, otherwise you are likely only getting a fraction of the rate, for example if you pump it up alone and a team comes in later at a higher number to snap it off.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

I think you misunderstood Tom, nightoftheiguana2000.

He was saying the first cycle he played was unopposed (not shared) and then 5 other players piled on.

When everyone starts at the same time meter-rise is not shared, it counts full. Because though they can hit it away from you they are also adding to it. Their chance to hit the JP is perfectly counterbalanced by their contribution to it.

Someone getting on after you at a higher number is a completely different situation.

This is covered in my book under the subheading, "Getting Snapped Off".

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>
> Because in that situation you're sharing your first cycle of meter rise with 5 others, so you only get 1/6 of the meter rate of the first cycle for the times that you don't hit the jackpot in the first cycle. And as you said previously this assumes everyone plays about the same rate with about the same strategy, which might or might not be the case. Some players might be slow playing or siting at a machine reading a book waiting for a higher number, and so on.