What is the variance of Multi Strike Poker and where can I find this
information?
Has anyone worked out the bankroll/ROR problem for Multi Strike
Poker?
Before I (attempt to) write a program using elementary principles of
sums of squares for every pay table for every game, Dancer's "6-4-2"
strategy adjustments, and 5-Card's "free ride probabilities", I
would like to find out has this already been done, and is there a
simple relationship between the variance of a Multi Strike game and
the variance of the regular game. Thanks!
Multi Strike Variance?
lwluiki wrote:
What is the variance of Multi Strike Poker and where can I find this
information?
Has anyone worked out the bankroll/ROR problem for Multi Strike
Poker?
Before I (attempt to) write a program using elementary principles of
sums of squares for every pay table for every game, Dancer's "6-4-2"
strategy adjustments, and 5-Card's "free ride probabilities", I
would like to find out has this already been done, and is there a
simple relationship between the variance of a Multi Strike game and
the variance of the regular game. Thanks!
I haven't seen a variance stat presented for the game but I would
definitely be interested.
It's a mechanical calculation, but with around 69,000 win/Free Ride
combinations (for JB per my back-of-the-envelope math, if on target -
and quite a bit higher for a game like DB) whose payouts and
probabilities need to be evaluated, I haven't quite been motivitated
to do the scorekeeping necessary.
I personally won't worry too much about bankroll/ROR stats -- in my
neck of the woods (AC) I'm not presented with the dilemma of what
positive opportunities to choose between that often.
While I would expect there to be a ball park variance relationship
between MS and its single line equivalent, I wouldn't expect it to be
simple. Shifting strategies and the graduated pay with each level is
going to twist things a bit.
Be sure to report back with what you find. Hell, confronted with some
actual numbers I'm sure I'll find myself cranking through the calcs
some sleepless night (or two) just to confirm them 
- Harry
i think it's about the same as the base game:
P=base game probability, W=base game payback:
--------------RET---VAR
---P-----W----=PW---=PW^2
1x-1-----0.25-0.25--0.0625
2x-0.5---0.5--0.25--0.125
4x-0.25--1----0.25--0.25
8x-0.125-2----0.25--0.5
···
-------------------------------------
TOTAL:--------1-----0.9375
note that the short term seat of the pants feel is a wild ride, for
reasons similar to multiplays
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "lwluiki" <lwluiki@a...> wrote:
What is the variance of Multi Strike Poker and where can I find
this
information?
Has anyone worked out the bankroll/ROR problem for Multi Strike
Poker?
Before I (attempt to) write a program using elementary principles
of
sums of squares for every pay table for every game, Dancer's "6-4-
2"
strategy adjustments, and 5-Card's "free ride probabilities", I
would like to find out has this already been done, and is there a
simple relationship between the variance of a Multi Strike game and
the variance of the regular game. Thanks!
i think it's about the same as the base game:
P=base game probability, W=base game payback:
--------------RET---VAR
---P-----W----=PW---=PW^2
1x-1-----0.25-0.25--0.0625
2x-0.5---0.5--0.25--0.125
4x-0.25--1----0.25--0.25
8x-0.125-2----0.25--0.5
-------------------------------------
TOTAL:--------1-----0.9375note that the short term seat of the pants feel is a wild ride,
for
reasons similar to multiplays
> What is the variance of Multi Strike Poker and where can I find
this
> information?
> Has anyone worked out the bankroll/ROR problem for Multi Strike
> Poker?
> Before I (attempt to) write a program using elementary
principles
of
> sums of squares for every pay table for every game, Dancer's "6-
4-
2"
> strategy adjustments, and 5-Card's "free ride probabilities", I
> would like to find out has this already been done, and is there
a
> simple relationship between the variance of a Multi Strike game
and
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "aaquad250" <aaquad250@y...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "lwluiki" <lwluiki@a...> wrote:
> the variance of the regular game. Thanks!
*********************************************************************
I considered making the assumption:
(Probability of winning the hand using optimal single line strategy)
+ (Probability of not winning the hand using optimal single line
Strategy AND getting a Free Ride) = exactly 0.5,
but this would imply that the Free Ride Frequencies must be the same
for each level. The fact that the Free Ride frequencies do vary
between levels invalidates my assumption (and a straight forward
though tedious solution to the problem). Does anyone know how the
Free Ride frequencies were set? The VP writers (e.g. Dancer, 5-card)
computed the optimal returns for all the MultiStrike games (e.g. for
FPDW it's 100.88%), how is this done?
but