what7do7you7want wrote:
Has anyone published an analysis of the variance of multistrike?
The variance for each individual line should be easy enough to
calculate if one assumes the frequency of each payout is cut in half
on successive higher lines and the corresponding payout is doubled
for each such step. However, I don't know how to combine the 4
lines to get an overall variance based on the total wager of 5
dollars per game (on quarters)
I want to get the variance in terms of the total bet of five dollars
so I can easily compare multistrike to the corresponding single line
game in dollars.
On a similar note, has anybody calculated the variance of Super Times
Pay.
Quad Zilla
I have a modest program (written in BASIC) that, with tweaking to
provide the necessary play stats (e.g. hand frequencies from a single
hand of play, sourced from another program such as winpoker), can
evaluate MultiStrike ER and variance for any number of levels played.
Generally speaking, the advancement/multiplier aspects of MS increase
the variance of low variance game such as Jacks, while decreasing the
variance of a higher variance game such as DDB.
For example, 9/6 JB MS played "full coin" with optimal strategy (i.e.
"6/4/2") has an ER of 99.79 and variance of 21.00.
···
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These values have been vetted by LED Gaming (who has reviewed the
program as well).
Because there is a relatively limited universe of MS outcomes, it was
possible to analyze the return and variance merely by building a tree
of all possible 4 Level payout outcomes.
I'm unable to develop such a program for STP because of the underlying
multiplay aspect, for which I don't have an effective game calculator
(the immensely greater number of possible outcomes precludes use of
the brute force method I used for MS).
Feel free to request info re other MS paytables. Questions re the
program can be sent to me privately.
- Harry