I think JOB on the $.25 progressive is legit. The other day I played
10+ hours on this without losing. I didn't hit the royal that day, but
going all day (about 10000 hands) gives me some confidence that it's
on the level. The poor paytables for games other than JOB eliminates
them from consideration so the possibility of gaffing never enters the
picture.
Now the $1 progressive is a different matter entirely. I'm willing to
concede the dangers of the high variance games such as OEJ, TB+, and
DBDW. In particular I've had discussions with veterans of OEJ who have
indicated dry spells can be quite long. So despite having gotten
totally crushed in this game during the month of July I'm willing to
concede that on the basis of my OEJ results alone there isn't
sufficient evidence to suspect gaffing. The game that is highly
suspicious however is DBDW. I play that game nearly perfectly and
always have the strategy sheet with me for the few cases that are
difficult to remember. On no other game have I experienced such a huge
disparity between my playing skill and the actual results. For
example, before I was a scientific vp player I used to play DDB
extensively on the second floor. It's a relatively poor paying game
and my skill level wasn't optimum neither. Despite that I was actually
a net winner over all the numerous DDB sessions. When I contrast this
vs. my DBDW results I'm left with the absurd conclusion that it's
better to be ill prepared and play games with poor theoretical
returns! That may make sense from a BB perspective, but it makes no
sense whatsoever when considering session results. When I play DBDW on
the $1 progressive the frequencies of winning hands is far below what
is expected. I seem to just shovel $100 bills into the machines. I
invite anyone who is so inclined to track the number of DBDW hands
played on the $1 progressive and then play that number under either
Frugal or WinPoker. On the basis of DBDW alone I would say yes, there
is sufficient cause to suspect these machines may be gaffed.
What's still up in the air for me is whether or not the $1 progressive
exhibits suspicious behavior for JOB. I only recently started playing
JOB on the $1 progressive and unlike the $.25 progressive have not
played enough hands to be on statistically solid ground. Yes, my $1
JOB sessions were losers, but from that alone I can't draw any
conclusions due to the limited number of hands.
For now I'm going to play it safe and limit myself to JOB on the
progressives. If you're one of those people who believes that IGT and
the regulatory gaming bodies are beyond reproach and you have a
sufficient bankroll for the high variance $1 progressive games then by
all means play them. For the rest of us I would counsel caution.
--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "Chandler" <omnibibulous1@c...>
wrote:
First visit to a local casino in several months. The new MS quarter
bartop
prog was at $1770 and $5115 on the dollar as of 2PM today. Wife and
I lost
···
a couple of hundred each chasing the royal. Are we sure these machines
aren't rigged?_____
From: vp_nbi [mailto:nbi@w…]
Sent: Sunday, November 28, 2004 1:18 PM
To: vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE_Chicago] Re: MS ProgressiveThanks for posting, but please double check for accuracy.
These numbers are lower than those posted by Howard for 3pm
(5010,1616). Somebody seems to have made a boo-boo in reporting as I
doubt both jackpots were hit between 3 and 7 and then rose to these
levels. Howard, did you mean 8pm rather than 3pm? That would make
sense given these numbers.--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "correna2" <correna2@y...> wrote:
>
> 11/27, 7pm:
>
> $1 => $5000
> $.25 => $1555[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
