MS nickel hundred plays

[John.G.Zaroff]

I plan on a trip to Majestic Star the second week of March. I'd like to run an experiment on the dealt hands for the nickel hundred plays at Mike and Don's Bar. There has been discussion on VPfree_Chicago that the game isn't dealing fairly when over 25 hands are played. Here is my experiment:

1) Play 400 dealt hands of 15 play. Record the number of times I am dealt 0,1,2,3 and 4 deuces.

2) Play 400 dealt hands of 30 play. Record the number of times I am dealt 0,1,2,3 and 4 deuces.

Compare the average number of deuces per hand for the two groups. Compare that number to the expected average as well.

Do the same for number of times I am dealt 0-4 deuces.

Now, I realize that sample size is small and it is only one of the 8 machines, but this little experiment should indicate if there is a significant difference between the average number of deuces dealt for the 2 populations.
I should be able to compare the means and run the appropriate statistic.

Here are my expected values for dealt hands :

number prob( # of 2s) deuces
of deuces in 400 hands
           
0 0.658842 263.5367993
1 0.29947364 119.7894542
2 0.03992982 15.97192723
3 0.00173608 0.694431619
4 1.8469E-05 0.00738757
      
0.3846 deuces per dealt hand

Comments are welcomed

···

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[jaydavidson118]

If you estimate that trips are dealt slightly less than once every 50
hands, you would need roughly 650 dealt hands fairly expect one dealt
trip deuces, of course, you could get far more or zero...this sample
size is way way way too small to tell you anything about the fairness
of these machines. I would suggest skipping the experiment and just
have fun!

When I play the 100-play .01 machines I roughly track, for my won
amusement, the number of royals and dealt 4ofKs. This is easy to do
if you estimate a royal should occur roughly every 40,000 hands and a
that's 200 pts on the .01 machines...I'm amazed how close my
experience is to expectation.

--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "John.G.Zaroff"
<John.G.Zaroff@d...> wrote:

I plan on a trip to Majestic Star the second week of March. I'd

like to run an experiment on the dealt hands for the nickel hundred
plays at Mike and Don's Bar. There has been discussion on
VPfree_Chicago that the game isn't dealing fairly when over 25 hands
are played. Here is my experiment:

1) Play 400 dealt hands of 15 play. Record the number of times I

am dealt 0,1,2,3 and 4 deuces.

2) Play 400 dealt hands of 30 play. Record the number of times I am

dealt 0,1,2,3 and 4 deuces.

Compare the average number of deuces per hand for the two groups.

Compare that number to the expected average as well.

Do the same for number of times I am dealt 0-4 deuces.

Now, I realize that sample size is small and it is only one of the

8 machines, but this little experiment should indicate if there is a
significant difference between the average number of deuces dealt for
the 2 populations.

I should be able to compare the means and run the appropriate

statistic.

···

Here are my expected values for dealt hands :

number prob( # of 2s) deuces
of deuces in 400 hands
           
0 0.658842 263.5367993
1 0.29947364 119.7894542
2 0.03992982 15.97192723
3 0.00173608 0.694431619
4 1.8469E-05 0.00738757
      
0.3846 deuces per dealt hand

Comments are welcomed

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Note: The information contained in this message may be privileged

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[vp_nbi]

--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "jaydavidson118"
<jaydavidson118@y...> wrote:

If you estimate that trips are dealt slightly less than once every 50
hands, you would need roughly 650 dealt hands fairly expect one dealt
trip deuces, of course, you could get far more or zero...this sample
size is way way way too small to tell you anything about the fairness
of these machines. I would suggest skipping the experiment and just
have fun!

When I play the 100-play .01 machines I roughly track, for my won
amusement, the number of royals and dealt 4ofKs. This is easy to do
if you estimate a royal should occur roughly every 40,000 hands and a
that's 200 pts on the .01 machines...I'm amazed how close my
experience is to expectation.

I agree, the .01 machines appear to be legit. I have only been dealt
4oak twice on these machines which is significantly below expectation,
but overall the results are not outliers by any measure. Sure would
like to see a dealt royal on these things though even if it isn't for
me. I've never witnessed one, but one of the .01 regulars told me she
was dealt one on a Saturday nite so it apparently does happen.

···

--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "John.G.Zaroff"
<John.G.Zaroff@d...> wrote:
>
> I plan on a trip to Majestic Star the second week of March. I'd
like to run an experiment on the dealt hands for the nickel hundred
plays at Mike and Don's Bar. There has been discussion on
VPfree_Chicago that the game isn't dealing fairly when over 25 hands
are played. Here is my experiment:
>
> 1) Play 400 dealt hands of 15 play. Record the number of times I
am dealt 0,1,2,3 and 4 deuces.
>
> 2) Play 400 dealt hands of 30 play. Record the number of times I am
dealt 0,1,2,3 and 4 deuces.
>
> Compare the average number of deuces per hand for the two groups.
Compare that number to the expected average as well.
>
> Do the same for number of times I am dealt 0-4 deuces.
>
> Now, I realize that sample size is small and it is only one of the
8 machines, but this little experiment should indicate if there is a
significant difference between the average number of deuces dealt for
the 2 populations.
> I should be able to compare the means and run the appropriate
statistic.
>
> Here are my expected values for dealt hands :
>
> number prob( # of 2s) deuces
> of deuces in 400 hands
>
> 0 0.658842 263.5367993
> 1 0.29947364 119.7894542
> 2 0.03992982 15.97192723
> 3 0.00173608 0.694431619
> 4 1.8469E-05 0.00738757
>
> 0.3846 deuces per dealt hand
>
>
> Comments are welcomed
>
>
**********************************************************************
******************
>
> Note: The information contained in this message may be privileged
and confidential and thus protected from disclosure. If the reader of
this message is not the intended recipient, or an employee or agent
responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or
copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have
received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by
replying to the message and deleting it from your computer. Thank
you.
>
>
**********************************************************************
******************

[jaydavidson118]

I have actually witnessed one dealt royal on .01, it was the guy's
very first hand! he hadn't even sat down....my favorite dealt royal
storyon the .01 machines is by a woman who is a frequent player..who
has odd betting progression that she goes through ranging from 20
hands 1 per hand up to max coins (occasionally) well not only did she
get the dealt royal it occurred on a max coin bet!

--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "jaydavidson118"
<jaydavidson118@y...> wrote:
>
> If you estimate that trips are dealt slightly less than once

every 50

> hands, you would need roughly 650 dealt hands fairly expect one

dealt

> trip deuces, of course, you could get far more or zero...this

sample

> size is way way way too small to tell you anything about the

fairness

> of these machines. I would suggest skipping the experiment and

just

> have fun!
>
> When I play the 100-play .01 machines I roughly track, for my won
> amusement, the number of royals and dealt 4ofKs. This is easy to

do

> if you estimate a royal should occur roughly every 40,000 hands

and a

> that's 200 pts on the .01 machines...I'm amazed how close my
> experience is to expectation.

I agree, the .01 machines appear to be legit. I have only been dealt
4oak twice on these machines which is significantly below

expectation,

but overall the results are not outliers by any measure. Sure would
like to see a dealt royal on these things though even if it isn't

for

me. I've never witnessed one, but one of the .01 regulars told me

she

was dealt one on a Saturday nite so it apparently does happen.

>
>
> --- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "John.G.Zaroff"
> <John.G.Zaroff@d...> wrote:
> >
> > I plan on a trip to Majestic Star the second week of March.

I'd

> like to run an experiment on the dealt hands for the nickel

hundred

> plays at Mike and Don's Bar. There has been discussion on
> VPfree_Chicago that the game isn't dealing fairly when over 25

hands

> are played. Here is my experiment:
> >
> > 1) Play 400 dealt hands of 15 play. Record the number of times

I

> am dealt 0,1,2,3 and 4 deuces.
> >
> > 2) Play 400 dealt hands of 30 play. Record the number of times

I am

> dealt 0,1,2,3 and 4 deuces.
> >
> > Compare the average number of deuces per hand for the two

groups.

> Compare that number to the expected average as well.
> >
> > Do the same for number of times I am dealt 0-4 deuces.
> >
> > Now, I realize that sample size is small and it is only one of

the

> 8 machines, but this little experiment should indicate if there

is a

> significant difference between the average number of deuces dealt

for

···

--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "vp_nbi" <nbi@w...> wrote:

> the 2 populations.
> > I should be able to compare the means and run the appropriate
> statistic.
> >
> > Here are my expected values for dealt hands :
> >
> > number prob( # of 2s) deuces
> > of deuces in 400 hands
> >
> > 0 0.658842 263.5367993
> > 1 0.29947364 119.7894542
> > 2 0.03992982 15.97192723
> > 3 0.00173608 0.694431619
> > 4 1.8469E-05 0.00738757
> >
> > 0.3846 deuces per dealt hand
> >
> >
> > Comments are welcomed
> >
> >
>

**********************************************************************

> ******************
> >
> > Note: The information contained in this message may be

privileged

> and confidential and thus protected from disclosure. If the

reader of

> this message is not the intended recipient, or an employee or

agent

> responsible for delivering this message to the intended

recipient,

> you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or
> copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have
> received this communication in error, please notify us

immediately by

> replying to the message and deleting it from your computer. Thank
> you.
> >
> >
>

**********************************************************************

> ******************

[Toonces_The_Driving]

Looking at my actuarial books, I believe that if you get the data you
are talking about, I can apply what's called a Chi-Square Test to
test if each set of data is likely to be caused by a random process.

I agree that the 3 & 4 deuce results won't be very significant, but

I plan on a trip to Majestic Star the second week of March. I'd

like to run an experiment on the dealt hands for the nickel hundred
plays at Mike and Don's Bar. There has been discussion on
VPfree_Chicago that the game isn't dealing fairly when over 25 hands
are played. Here is my experiment:

1) Play 400 dealt hands of 15 play. Record the number of times I

am dealt 0,1,2,3 and 4 deuces.

2) Play 400 dealt hands of 30 play. Record the number of times I am

dealt 0,1,2,3 and 4 deuces.

Compare the average number of deuces per hand for the two groups.

Compare that number to the expected average as well.

Do the same for number of times I am dealt 0-4 deuces.

Now, I realize that sample size is small and it is only one of the

8 machines, but this little experiment should indicate if there is a
significant difference between the average number of deuces dealt for
the 2 populations.

I should be able to compare the means and run the appropriate

statistic.

···

at least the common results will be meaningful. --- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "John.G.Zaroff" <John.G.Zaroff@d...> wrote:

Here are my expected values for dealt hands :

number prob( # of 2s) deuces
of deuces in 400 hands
           
0 0.658842 263.5367993
1 0.29947364 119.7894542
2 0.03992982 15.97192723
3 0.00173608 0.694431619
4 1.8469E-05 0.00738757
      
0.3846 deuces per dealt hand

Comments are welcomed

**********************************************************************
******************

Note: The information contained in this message may be privileged

and confidential and thus protected from disclosure. If the reader of
this message is not the intended recipient, or an employee or agent
responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or
copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have
received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by
replying to the message and deleting it from your computer. Thank
you.

**********************************************************************
******************

[vp_nbi]

We may be referring to the same woman. She is a "system" player and
tried to describe it once to me. The "system" sounds like what you
presented below. And yes, she was dealt the royal at max coins.

--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "jaydavidson118"
<jaydavidson118@y...> wrote:

···

I have actually witnessed one dealt royal on .01, it was the guy's
very first hand! he hadn't even sat down....my favorite dealt royal
storyon the .01 machines is by a woman who is a frequent player..who
has odd betting progression that she goes through ranging from 20
hands 1 per hand up to max coins (occasionally) well not only did she
get the dealt royal it occurred on a max coin bet!

--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "vp_nbi" <nbi@w...> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "jaydavidson118"
> <jaydavidson118@y...> wrote:
> >
> > If you estimate that trips are dealt slightly less than once
every 50
> > hands, you would need roughly 650 dealt hands fairly expect one
dealt
> > trip deuces, of course, you could get far more or zero...this
sample
> > size is way way way too small to tell you anything about the
fairness
> > of these machines. I would suggest skipping the experiment and
just
> > have fun!
> >
> > When I play the 100-play .01 machines I roughly track, for my won
> > amusement, the number of royals and dealt 4ofKs. This is easy to
do
> > if you estimate a royal should occur roughly every 40,000 hands
and a
> > that's 200 pts on the .01 machines...I'm amazed how close my
> > experience is to expectation.
>
> I agree, the .01 machines appear to be legit. I have only been dealt
> 4oak twice on these machines which is significantly below
expectation,
> but overall the results are not outliers by any measure. Sure would
> like to see a dealt royal on these things though even if it isn't
for
> me. I've never witnessed one, but one of the .01 regulars told me
she
> was dealt one on a Saturday nite so it apparently does happen.
>
> >
> >
> > --- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "John.G.Zaroff"
> > <John.G.Zaroff@d...> wrote:
> > >
> > > I plan on a trip to Majestic Star the second week of March.
I'd
> > like to run an experiment on the dealt hands for the nickel
hundred
> > plays at Mike and Don's Bar. There has been discussion on
> > VPfree_Chicago that the game isn't dealing fairly when over 25
hands
> > are played. Here is my experiment:
> > >
> > > 1) Play 400 dealt hands of 15 play. Record the number of times
I
> > am dealt 0,1,2,3 and 4 deuces.
> > >
> > > 2) Play 400 dealt hands of 30 play. Record the number of times
I am
> > dealt 0,1,2,3 and 4 deuces.
> > >
> > > Compare the average number of deuces per hand for the two
groups.
> > Compare that number to the expected average as well.
> > >
> > > Do the same for number of times I am dealt 0-4 deuces.
> > >
> > > Now, I realize that sample size is small and it is only one of
the
> > 8 machines, but this little experiment should indicate if there
is a
> > significant difference between the average number of deuces dealt
for
> > the 2 populations.
> > > I should be able to compare the means and run the appropriate
> > statistic.
> > >
> > > Here are my expected values for dealt hands :
> > >
> > > number prob( # of 2s) deuces
> > > of deuces in 400 hands
> > >
> > > 0 0.658842 263.5367993
> > > 1 0.29947364 119.7894542
> > > 2 0.03992982 15.97192723
> > > 3 0.00173608 0.694431619
> > > 4 1.8469E-05 0.00738757
> > >
> > > 0.3846 deuces per dealt hand
> > >
> > >
> > > Comments are welcomed
> > >
> > >
> >
**********************************************************************
> > ******************
> > >
> > > Note: The information contained in this message may be
privileged
> > and confidential and thus protected from disclosure. If the
reader of
> > this message is not the intended recipient, or an employee or
agent
> > responsible for delivering this message to the intended
recipient,
> > you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or
> > copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have
> > received this communication in error, please notify us
immediately by
> > replying to the message and deleting it from your computer. Thank
> > you.
> > >
> > >
> >
**********************************************************************
> > ******************