In a message dated 10/27/2004 9:35:21 AM Eastern Standard Time,
billkennedy3@yahoo.com writes:
Thanks for the excellent info. This is very surprising if true --
that MS would use a 6%
I've been told that my theo is $1400 per trip. I average 30-40K and would put
the theo closer to 4%. Then again, there seems to be very few people working
at MS that know what their talking about.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I've been told that my theo is $1400 per trip. I average 30-40K and
would put
the theo closer to 4%. Then again, there seems to be very few
people working
at MS that know what their talking about.
At MS, the payback return rises with the denomination of the
machine. Here is a link to a second-hand report of the numbers
submitted to the Connecticut Division of Special Revenue back in June
30, 2002:
http://www.casino-magyck.com/usland-connecticut.html
In these reports they lump vp with the slot machines as 25% of the
revenue from these goes to the State of Connecticut. The numbers
have changed a little since 2002 but back then there was a 2.8%
difference between a $1 and $5 machine, and another 1% to a $10
machine. So a theo of 4% or probably less would be expected if you
were playing $5 machines. I do not have the bankroll to support the
$5 machines, but if you want to verify the theos, then pick a simple
situation. On one single day play one machine. Note your point
balance before and after and multiply the difference by $90 if
machine is >=$1 or by $160 if<$1. Try not to play through midnight
so there is not a question which day you gambled on. Go to a host at
a lounge where they're going to check your play anyways and just
politely ask one simple question. "Can you tell me what my theo (in
total dollars) was just for today?"
VPFREE is open to all. Its good to talk about games. Its good to
discuss trip reports. Some things are not good to talk about in an
open forum. This thread may be one of those things.
Haaljo in Boston
--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "steviemcc1"
<steviemcc1@y...> wrote:
> I've been told that my theo is $1400 per trip. I average 30-40K
and
would put
> the theo closer to 4%. Then again, there seems to be very few
people working
> at MS that know what their talking about.At MS, the payback return rises with the denomination of the
machine. Here is a link to a second-hand report of the numbers
submitted to the Connecticut Division of Special Revenue back in
June
30, 2002:
http://www.casino-magyck.com/usland-connecticut.html
In these reports they lump vp with the slot machines as 25% of the
revenue from these goes to the State of Connecticut. The numbers
have changed a little since 2002 but back then there was a 2.8%
difference between a $1 and $5 machine, and another 1% to a $10
machine. So a theo of 4% or probably less would be expected if
you
were playing $5 machines. I do not have the bankroll to support
the
$5 machines, but if you want to verify the theos, then pick a
simple
situation. On one single day play one machine. Note your point
balance before and after and multiply the difference by $90 if
machine is >=$1 or by $160 if<$1. Try not to play through
midnight
so there is not a question which day you gambled on. Go to a host
at
a lounge where they're going to check your play anyways and just
politely ask one simple question. "Can you tell me what my theo
(in
total dollars) was just for today?"
This is not directly related to VP but it is related to my ability to play
VP. I was playing the $1PE at MS last night and nearly froze my you know
what off in the old poker room. You can hang meat in that room. I have
found this room to be very cold whether it is summer, winter, spring or
fall.
Is my own body temperature out of whack or has any one else notices this? I
know at least one other person noticed it...I was with a friend there a
couple of months ago and I had to buy her a sweater in one of the gift
shops...the shop attendant stated that lots of sweaters are sold because
people are freezing in the casino.
Has there been some study that people bet more when cold, are they trying to
increase sweater sales or should I just order a shot of brandy and ignore
the cold?
I (and several of the people I was with) also commented on the same
thing this past weekend. Seemed even colder than usual.
Although, the cold didn't bother me so much as losing did. I managed
to lose close to $6,000 playing $1 PE over the course of the weekend
(right around 20,000 hands, judging by the points I earned). I
managed 8 quads, and still lost this much. I've been tracking my
sessions since June (about 25 of them so far), and this is more than
double my next closest loss. I was there with 12 people this
weekend, and not a single person won (although one person did manage
to hold his losses to only $20). Several of them lost over $2,000,
although I was by far the biggest loser.
Any math people out there want to let me know what an "almost worst
case scenario" (say a 1 in 100 event on the negative side) is for
20,000 hands of $1 PE? I'm curious how statistically likely a loss
like this is. Assume perfect play (while I do make the occasional
error, I do believe that I'm pretty close).
--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "jack33ct" <jack33ct@c...>
wrote:
This is not directly related to VP but it is related to my ability
to play
VP. I was playing the $1PE at MS last night and nearly froze my
you know
what off in the old poker room. You can hang meat in that room. I
have
found this room to be very cold whether it is summer, winter,
spring or
fall.
Is my own body temperature out of whack or has any one else notices
this? I
know at least one other person noticed it...I was with a friend
there a
couple of months ago and I had to buy her a sweater in one of the
gift
shops...the shop attendant stated that lots of sweaters are sold
because
people are freezing in the casino.
Has there been some study that people bet more when cold, are they
trying to
increase sweater sales or should I just order a shot of brandy and
ignore
the cold?
I definitely agree this room has been cold all year. You just have
to get enough people to complain for them to do something about it.
What management didn't realize is when it was the poker room, it was
usually completely full of over a hundred bodies which raised the
temp of the room several degrees and poker players don't want others
to see them sweat. Now it's only a tenth as full of people.
Jazbo has produced some graphs on video poker volatility &
probability and has PE one of the games analyzed. Though the graphs
don't analyze your particularly long playing situation, they might
give you a clue as to deserving a grade of F in the luck category.
Here is one with a probability distribution for 10,000 hands (you
need to multiply the ending bankroll by $5 since that's what your
really putting in):
http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/curves.html
Here is another one that shows Survivability With 320 Bets (really
meaning a $1600 bankroll):
http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/halflife.html
I.E. $1600 should last you 5000 hands 85% of the time. However when
you put in four times over 20,000 hands you should get a much higher
% since the long shot hands now have a greater chance to hit.
--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "billkennedy3"
<billkennedy3@y...> wrote:
I (and several of the people I was with) also commented on the same
thing this past weekend. Seemed even colder than usual.Although, the cold didn't bother me so much as losing did. I
managed
to lose close to $6,000 playing $1 PE over the course of the
weekend
(right around 20,000 hands, judging by the points I earned). I
managed 8 quads, and still lost this much. I've been tracking my
sessions since June (about 25 of them so far), and this is more
than
double my next closest loss. I was there with 12 people this
weekend, and not a single person won (although one person did
manage
to hold his losses to only $20). Several of them lost over $2,000,
although I was by far the biggest loser.Any math people out there want to let me know what an "almost worst
case scenario" (say a 1 in 100 event on the negative side) is for
20,000 hands of $1 PE? I'm curious how statistically likely a loss
like this is. Assume perfect play (while I do make the occasional
error, I do believe that I'm pretty close).
During my "no quad run" I lost $2340 over 6570 hands.
O.K. Stevie,
I'll say billk had a "Grade F in the luck category" looking at that
10K hand bell curve. Can you answer his question on what the
probability would be for his experience last weekend?
There is some area under the 10K curve where the bankroll is $-1K
(equates to $5K in billk's case). I would say its about a 1 in
20,000 chance of losing $6K on PE over 20,000 hands. Its a much
greater chance of losing that amount on Double Bonus and less with
JB.
I have lost $2,500 several times over 20K hands of Pick em. All due
to lack of quads. Billk received his share of quads and still lost
$6K.
Its the quirks of randomness. Read a message last week that a Las
Vegas board member had 2 royals in an hour on Double Bonus and then
dealt a royal on a five play two days later.
Keep the faith, billk!
haaljo in Boston
--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "steviemcc1"
<steviemcc1@y...> wrote:
Jazbo has produced some graphs on video poker volatility &
probability and has PE one of the games analyzed. Though the
graphs
don't analyze your particularly long playing situation, they might
give you a clue as to deserving a grade of F in the luck category.Here is one with a probability distribution for 10,000 hands (you
need to multiply the ending bankroll by $5 since that's what your
really putting in):
http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/curves.htmlHere is another one that shows Survivability With 320 Bets (really
meaning a $1600 bankroll):
http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/halflife.html
I.E. $1600 should last you 5000 hands 85% of the time. However
when
you put in four times over 20,000 hands you should get a much
higher
% since the long shot hands now have a greater chance to hit.
--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "billkennedy3"
<billkennedy3@y...> wrote:
>
> I (and several of the people I was with) also commented on the
same
> thing this past weekend. Seemed even colder than usual.
>
> Although, the cold didn't bother me so much as losing did. I
managed
> to lose close to $6,000 playing $1 PE over the course of the
weekend
> (right around 20,000 hands, judging by the points I earned). I
> managed 8 quads, and still lost this much. I've been tracking
my
> sessions since June (about 25 of them so far), and this is more
than
> double my next closest loss. I was there with 12 people this
> weekend, and not a single person won (although one person did
manage
> to hold his losses to only $20). Several of them lost over
$2,000,
> although I was by far the biggest loser.
>
> Any math people out there want to let me know what an "almost
worst
> case scenario" (say a 1 in 100 event on the negative side) is
for
> 20,000 hands of $1 PE? I'm curious how statistically likely a
loss
> like this is. Assume perfect play (while I do make the
occasional
> error, I do believe that I'm pretty close).
Yeah, I was kinda "guesstimating" that this was somewhere in the 1 in
20,000 to 30,000 range on the negative side of things. I didn't even
realize that it'd be possible to lose that much money in only 20,000
hands, especially considering that I got my share of quads. I must
have really missed out on straights/flushes/full houses. I'm still
pretty well ahead for the year, but a few more sessions like this
could certainly change that. I've also had some crazy things happen
O.K. Stevie,
I'll say billk had a "Grade F in the luck category" looking at that
10K hand bell curve. Can you answer his question on what the
probability would be for his experience last weekend?
There is some area under the 10K curve where the bankroll is $-1K
(equates to $5K in billk's case). I would say its about a 1 in
20,000 chance of losing $6K on PE over 20,000 hands. Its a much
greater chance of losing that amount on Double Bonus and less with
JB.
I have lost $2,500 several times over 20K hands of Pick em. All due
to lack of quads. Billk received his share of quads and still lost
$6K.
Its the quirks of randomness. Read a message last week that a Las
Vegas board member had 2 royals in an hour on Double Bonus and then
dealt a royal on a five play two days later.
Keep the faith, billk!
haaljo in Boston--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "steviemcc1"
<steviemcc1@y...> wrote:
>
> Jazbo has produced some graphs on video poker volatility &
> probability and has PE one of the games analyzed. Though the
graphs
> don't analyze your particularly long playing situation, they
might
> give you a clue as to deserving a grade of F in the luck category.
>
> Here is one with a probability distribution for 10,000 hands (you
> need to multiply the ending bankroll by $5 since that's what your
> really putting in):
> http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/curves.html
>
> Here is another one that shows Survivability With 320 Bets
(really
on the extreme positive side of randomness, so it was only a matter of time before something like this happened, I suppose. --- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "haaljo" <haaljo@y...> wrote:
> meaning a $1600 bankroll):
> http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/halflife.html
> I.E. $1600 should last you 5000 hands 85% of the time. However
when
> you put in four times over 20,000 hands you should get a much
higher
> % since the long shot hands now have a greater chance to hit.
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "billkennedy3"
> <billkennedy3@y...> wrote:
> >
> > I (and several of the people I was with) also commented on the
same
> > thing this past weekend. Seemed even colder than usual.
> >
> > Although, the cold didn't bother me so much as losing did. I
> managed
> > to lose close to $6,000 playing $1 PE over the course of the
> weekend
> > (right around 20,000 hands, judging by the points I earned). I
> > managed 8 quads, and still lost this much. I've been tracking
my
> > sessions since June (about 25 of them so far), and this is more
> than
> > double my next closest loss. I was there with 12 people this
> > weekend, and not a single person won (although one person did
> manage
> > to hold his losses to only $20). Several of them lost over
$2,000,
> > although I was by far the biggest loser.
> >
> > Any math people out there want to let me know what an "almost
worst
> > case scenario" (say a 1 in 100 event on the negative side) is
for
> > 20,000 hands of $1 PE? I'm curious how statistically likely a
loss
> > like this is. Assume perfect play (while I do make the
occasional
> > error, I do believe that I'm pretty close).
O.K. Bill,
I have accepted that over the long run we will at best break even
when playing the game. Sure is fun and MS has a great player's club.
Haaljo in Boston
--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "billkennedy3"
<billkennedy3@y...> wrote:
Yeah, I was kinda "guesstimating" that this was somewhere in the 1
in
20,000 to 30,000 range on the negative side of things. I didn't
even
realize that it'd be possible to lose that much money in only
20,000
hands, especially considering that I got my share of quads. I
must
have really missed out on straights/flushes/full houses. I'm
still
pretty well ahead for the year, but a few more sessions like this
could certainly change that. I've also had some crazy things
happen
on the extreme positive side of randomness, so it was only a
matter
of time before something like this happened, I suppose.
--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "haaljo" <haaljo@y...>
wrote:
>
> O.K. Stevie,
> I'll say billk had a "Grade F in the luck category" looking at
that
> 10K hand bell curve. Can you answer his question on what the
> probability would be for his experience last weekend?
> There is some area under the 10K curve where the bankroll is $-
1K
> (equates to $5K in billk's case). I would say its about a 1 in
> 20,000 chance of losing $6K on PE over 20,000 hands. Its a much
> greater chance of losing that amount on Double Bonus and less
with
> JB.
> I have lost $2,500 several times over 20K hands of Pick em. All
due
> to lack of quads. Billk received his share of quads and still
lost
> $6K.
> Its the quirks of randomness. Read a message last week that a
Las
> Vegas board member had 2 royals in an hour on Double Bonus and
then
> dealt a royal on a five play two days later.
> Keep the faith, billk!
> haaljo in Boston
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "steviemcc1"
> <steviemcc1@y...> wrote:
> >
> > Jazbo has produced some graphs on video poker volatility &
> > probability and has PE one of the games analyzed. Though the
> graphs
> > don't analyze your particularly long playing situation, they
might
> > give you a clue as to deserving a grade of F in the luck
category.
> >
> > Here is one with a probability distribution for 10,000 hands
(you
> > need to multiply the ending bankroll by $5 since that's what
your
> > really putting in):
> > http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/curves.html
> >
> > Here is another one that shows Survivability With 320 Bets
(really
> > meaning a $1600 bankroll):
> > http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/halflife.html
> > I.E. $1600 should last you 5000 hands 85% of the time.
However
> when
> > you put in four times over 20,000 hands you should get a much
> higher
> > % since the long shot hands now have a greater chance to hit.
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "billkennedy3"
> > <billkennedy3@y...> wrote:
> > >
> > > I (and several of the people I was with) also commented on
the
> same
> > > thing this past weekend. Seemed even colder than usual.
> > >
> > > Although, the cold didn't bother me so much as losing did.
I
> > managed
> > > to lose close to $6,000 playing $1 PE over the course of the
> > weekend
> > > (right around 20,000 hands, judging by the points I
earned). I
> > > managed 8 quads, and still lost this much. I've been
tracking
> my
> > > sessions since June (about 25 of them so far), and this is
more
> > than
> > > double my next closest loss. I was there with 12 people
this
> > > weekend, and not a single person won (although one person
did
> > manage
> > > to hold his losses to only $20). Several of them lost over
> $2,000,
> > > although I was by far the biggest loser.
> > >
> > > Any math people out there want to let me know what
an "almost
> worst
> > > case scenario" (say a 1 in 100 event on the negative side)
is
> for
> > > 20,000 hands of $1 PE? I'm curious how statistically likely
a
> loss
> > > like this is. Assume perfect play (while I do make the
> occasional
> > > error, I do believe that I'm pretty close).