vpFREE2 Forums

MS bb

#1

I agree it would be great to figure out how the BB at MS works. I have done this in the past. Unfortunately, the programs change quite a bit and quite often. I tracked MS for quite a while and their program was very consistent back then. I was within a dollar on my bounceback checks. Then it leveled off to where it wasn't worth playing. Then it went through the roof. Then it leveled off.

Here's what I suggest for the parameters to track in figuring out the BB:

denomination of machine
EV of machine
theo for machine ( not usually attainable)
coin in ( per day, per week and per month)
hours played ( per day, per week and per month)
win loss ( per day, per week and per month)
bb checks cashed in the last couple of months ( maybe)

That's a good start and there are probably others. Harrah's uses about 40 parameters in figuring out their offers.

What MS has done is taken cash back , an easily understood, easily calculated , hard cost and made it into a comp. The value is not fixed, the timing is limited and you rarely use it all up and it is difficult to figure out. Pretty smart marketing but a pain for the video poker masses.

They want you to view bounce back as " Gee, look what I got as a gift from Majestic" instead of " HOw my cash back is less this month on the same amount of play".

···

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#2

Your idea of M/S turning bb into a "comp" is interesting, and may
help explain some of the volatility. That would explain stories about
people who played at a higher level in the past who have cut down
their play and are receiving higher bb than a consistently high level
player.

I do think the type of machine vp played is of critical importance in
their bb calc. I play mostly .01 vp 100 play, and know these machines
are played heavily 24/7, and mostly played rather poorly, even though
the pay tables good, mostly around 99% with bonus deluxe 99.6%. I
think M/S uses actual machine losses NOT theoretical losses, that can
be the only explanation on the high level of bb some people who play
these machines get, I have heard of more than one person who got 4 x
$425 last month...you just can't put much coin-in in these machines
to come close to justifying those numbers.

I do believe that bb is increassed if you have a big loss, but not
reduced if you have big wins, other than wiping out any previous big
loss bonus. I know people who have had very big wins for .01 games
$2000-$4000 and have not had their bb cut.

I think your paramter checklist is good, if people would share even
approx. numbers I think that would be good enough, as long as their
approx. is consistent from one month to the next.

--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "John.G.Zaroff"
<John.G.Zaroff@d...> wrote:

I agree it would be great to figure out how the BB at MS works. I

have done this in the past. Unfortunately, the programs change quite
a bit and quite often. I tracked MS for quite a while and their
program was very consistent back then. I was within a dollar on my
bounceback checks. Then it leveled off to where it wasn't worth
playing. Then it went through the roof. Then it leveled off.

Here's what I suggest for the parameters to track in figuring out

the BB:

denomination of machine
EV of machine
theo for machine ( not usually attainable)
coin in ( per day, per week and per month)
hours played ( per day, per week and per month)
win loss ( per day, per week and per month)
bb checks cashed in the last couple of months ( maybe)

That's a good start and there are probably others. Harrah's uses

about 40 parameters in figuring out their offers.

What MS has done is taken cash back , an easily understood, easily

calculated , hard cost and made it into a comp. The value is not
fixed, the timing is limited and you rarely use it all up and it is
difficult to figure out. Pretty smart marketing but a pain for the
video poker masses.

They want you to view bounce back as " Gee, look what I got as a

gift from Majestic" instead of " HOw my cash back is less this month
on the same amount of play".

···

**********************************************************************
******************

Note: The information contained in this message may be privileged

and confidential and thus protected from disclosure. If the reader of
this message is not the intended recipient, or an employee or agent
responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or
copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have
received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by
replying to the message and deleting it from your computer. Thank
you.

**********************************************************************
******************

#3

--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "jaydavidson118"
<jaydavidson118@y...> wrote:

Your idea of M/S turning bb into a "comp" is interesting, and may
help explain some of the volatility. That would explain stories about
people who played at a higher level in the past who have cut down
their play and are receiving higher bb than a consistently high level
player.

I think Jay Willy hit the nail on the head. While MS may be looking at
various factors there isn't a rational formula in use that assigns
proper weights to the factors. Hence with all the subjectivity the
result is a wide range of play to coupon correlations many of which
have no apparent justification.

I do think the type of machine vp played is of critical importance in
their bb calc.

Yes, but for the wrong reasons. As I've said before payback percentage
alone is a poor measure of how much risk the player's coin-in is
exposed to.

I play mostly .01 vp 100 play, and know these machines
are played heavily 24/7, and mostly played rather poorly, even though
the pay tables good, mostly around 99% with bonus deluxe 99.6%.

What's probably happening is:
1. MS is using the aggregate payback percentage for these machines
rather than the actual payback percentage of a specific game being played.
2. Game variance isn't factored into MS calculations at all (this I
know for a fact).

So if we compare BDLX at .01x100 vs. OEJ at $1 single play we arrive
at an interesting comparison that may shed light on the mysticism.

In both cases we're playing for $5 a pop full pay. Superficially it
might appear like the .9998 OEJ is a better play than the .9964 BDLX.
But this isn't true. How come?

1. BDLX players get credit for a payback percentage less than .9964,
i.e. the aggregate machine payback or possibly even the lowest payback
on the machine (which would be totally outrageous but not outside of
MSs realm of incompetence).
2. Variance is totally ignored by MS. High percentage games like OEJ
(.9998) and JW2 (.9992) have a much higher variance than BDLX.
3. Multi-play reduces volatility vs. single play.
4. The same speed of play results in much higher coin-in for OEJ since
the 100 plays are much slower.

What this all adds up to is players who not only put much more money
at risk but are also suffering devastating dry spells are seeing their
coupons reduced while at the same time the soccer grandmas are seeing
their coupons go up for playing $.01 JOB!

Enraged? Damn right I'm enraged.

think M/S uses actual machine losses NOT theoretical losses, that can
be the only explanation on the high level of bb some people who play
these machines get, I have heard of more than one person who got 4 x
$425 last month...you just can't put much coin-in in these machines
to come close to justifying those numbers.

No. Theoretical predominates. Jessica made that clear to me. According
to her actual losses become the dominant factor only in extreme cases.
The threshold for when this occurs was not explained. Of course their
theoretical is screwed up as it neglects variance, but that's the way
it is. You are quite correct however in suggesting that it's
improbable that someone could achieve the level of coin-in that would
justify $425/week. I and others have reached similar conclusions
earlier in the year.

I do believe that bb is increassed if you have a big loss, but not
reduced if you have big wins, other than wiping out any previous big
loss bonus. I know people who have had very big wins for .01 games
$2000-$4000 and have not had their bb cut.

I've had big losses and the corresponding bb was cut, not increased!

I think your paramter checklist is good, if people would share even
approx. numbers I think that would be good enough, as long as their
approx. is consistent from one month to the next.

My cup runneth over. Unless MS corrects its problems there no longer
is a strong incentive for me to return as the aggravations associated
with playing vp there no longer are worth it. I'm much more inclined
to visit the poker rooms at Harrah's or Trump's.

···

--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "John.G.Zaroff"
<John.G.Zaroff@d...> wrote:
>
> I agree it would be great to figure out how the BB at MS works. I
have done this in the past. Unfortunately, the programs change quite
a bit and quite often. I tracked MS for quite a while and their
program was very consistent back then. I was within a dollar on my
bounceback checks. Then it leveled off to where it wasn't worth
playing. Then it went through the roof. Then it leveled off.
>
> Here's what I suggest for the parameters to track in figuring out
the BB:
>
> denomination of machine
> EV of machine
> theo for machine ( not usually attainable)
> coin in ( per day, per week and per month)
> hours played ( per day, per week and per month)
> win loss ( per day, per week and per month)
> bb checks cashed in the last couple of months ( maybe)
>
>
> That's a good start and there are probably others. Harrah's uses
about 40 parameters in figuring out their offers.
>
> What MS has done is taken cash back , an easily understood, easily
calculated , hard cost and made it into a comp. The value is not
fixed, the timing is limited and you rarely use it all up and it is
difficult to figure out. Pretty smart marketing but a pain for the
video poker masses.
>
> They want you to view bounce back as " Gee, look what I got as a
gift from Majestic" instead of " HOw my cash back is less this month
on the same amount of play".
>
>
>
**********************************************************************
******************
>
> Note: The information contained in this message may be privileged
and confidential and thus protected from disclosure. If the reader of
this message is not the intended recipient, or an employee or agent
responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or
copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have
received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by
replying to the message and deleting it from your computer. Thank
you.
>
>
**********************************************************************
******************

#4

I think Jay Willy hit the nail on the head. While MS may be looking

at

various factors there isn't a rational formula in use that assigns
proper weights to the factors. Hence with all the subjectivity the
result is a wide range of play to coupon correlations many of which
have no apparent justification.

I think the key here is the subset of very favorable play to coupon
correlations, this is what we are trying to identify. Not to increase
the frustration to those that have had rollercoaster bb coupons.

My experience, based on six months of bb, has been consistent with a
spike up last month and continued this month. My coupons have all
been paired monthly e.g. May June are identical aswere July and Aug.
My play has been relatively consistent on all parametes I can think
of e.g. # of visits a month, coin-in, length of playing sessions,
games played, ave. bet amount. I know of at least one other person
who has also received consistnetly high coupons for the last six
months...although they miss the $600 coupons they got in Dec. and
Jan. evidently that was a glitch that has not been repeated. I was
surprised that no one reported those coupons on this board, many
people got them, unfortunately that was before my time at M/S.

···

--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, "vp_nbi" <nbi@w...> wrote: