vpFREE2 Forums

Mohegan Sun Trip

Just wanted to post a quick message re: the $1 Pick 'ems. I was at
MS Friday-Saturday, and happened to be sitting next to a disabled $1
PE machine when a tech came by with a replacement mainboard for it.
I watched him go through the setup procedure, and one screen in
particular caught my eye.

This screen listed all of the games available on the machine, and had
a column labled "Pct", which I assumed was the longterm percentage
payback on the game with perfect play. The numbers in the columns
didn't make sense, though:

Pick 'Em: 98.28 (or something close to that -- definately 98.xx)
Triple Trouble Poker (the game with the devils): 98.48
Joker Wild (or whatever the single Joker game is named): 99.10
That video slot game: 90.xx

The highest number was 99.10 for the Joker Wild game, and the lowest
was 90.xx for the Slot game. I was curious about Triple Trouble
because it seems to be a popular game, but it is impossible to
analyze because of the random nature of the devils -- it was actually
listed a bit higher than PE.

I know that PE returns 99.95% with perfect play over the long-term,
so I'm curious as to what these numbers represented. I don't believe
that they represented the actual longterm return, since the tech was
looking at EPROM settings (electronically-programmable read-only
memory), and there wouldn't be any technical way to have the numbers
update as people played. I also believe that the number would be
much higher for PE as it is an easy game that gets a lot of use by
regulars that I would assume know how to play.

Anyone know?

Just as a sidenote, I've played well over a million hands of PE at
MS, and I keep very good records. I have no reason to believe that
the machines there are anything but fair (I'm VERY close to 100%
return on the game -- actually a tiny bit over).

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "billkennedy3"
<billkennedy3@...> wrote:

This screen listed all of the games available on the machine, and

had

a column labled "Pct", which I assumed was the longterm percentage
payback on the game with perfect play. The numbers in the columns
didn't make sense, though:

Pick 'Em: 98.28 (or something close to that -- definately 98.xx)
Triple Trouble Poker (the game with the devils): 98.48
Joker Wild (or whatever the single Joker game is named): 99.10
That video slot game: 90.xx

The highest number was 99.10 for the Joker Wild game, and the

lowest

was 90.xx for the Slot game. I was curious about Triple Trouble
because it seems to be a popular game, but it is impossible to
analyze because of the random nature of the devils -- it was

actually

listed a bit higher than PE.

Mohegan Sun has several types and paytables for Joker Poker. One is
Kings or Better that pays either 15 or 17 for the 4 of a kind, some
are the Atlantic City Joker, where the 5 of a kind pays 4000 and they
have one that I found last night in the .25 pickem machines in the
old poker room that has the following paytable: 1-2-5-7-8-20-050-050-
100-1000 that returns 99.07%, pretty close to the Joker that you
saw. I played arround with winpoker to see if I could come up with
the 98.28 payback for pickem that you saw, but I couldn't get that
return. They might be trying to short pay a few pickems to see if
they still get play (there is 1 or 2 short pay in the .25 machines
that I spoke about above). The next step is to look at the paytable
for the pickem that they were working on to see if it has been
shorted. If not, either their assumption on the return of the game
is wrong or it's winpoker that is wrong. Thank you for the info. -
Russ

Forgot to mention that I did check the paytable after the tech was
finished, and it was indeed the full pay (99.95%) schedule.

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "russwin1" <russwin1@...>
wrote:

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "billkennedy3"
<billkennedy3@> wrote:
>
> This screen listed all of the games available on the machine, and
had
> a column labled "Pct", which I assumed was the longterm

percentage

> payback on the game with perfect play. The numbers in the

columns

> didn't make sense, though:
>
> Pick 'Em: 98.28 (or something close to that -- definately 98.xx)
> Triple Trouble Poker (the game with the devils): 98.48
> Joker Wild (or whatever the single Joker game is named): 99.10
> That video slot game: 90.xx
>
> The highest number was 99.10 for the Joker Wild game, and the
lowest
> was 90.xx for the Slot game. I was curious about Triple Trouble
> because it seems to be a popular game, but it is impossible to
> analyze because of the random nature of the devils -- it was
actually
> listed a bit higher than PE.

Mohegan Sun has several types and paytables for Joker Poker. One

is

Kings or Better that pays either 15 or 17 for the 4 of a kind, some
are the Atlantic City Joker, where the 5 of a kind pays 4000 and

they

have one that I found last night in the .25 pickem machines in the
old poker room that has the following paytable: 1-2-5-7-8-20-050-

050-

100-1000 that returns 99.07%, pretty close to the Joker that you
saw. I played arround with winpoker to see if I could come up with
the 98.28 payback for pickem that you saw, but I couldn't get that
return. They might be trying to short pay a few pickems to see if
they still get play (there is 1 or 2 short pay in the .25 machines
that I spoke about above). The next step is to look at the

paytable

···

for the pickem that they were working on to see if it has been
shorted. If not, either their assumption on the return of the game
is wrong or it's winpoker that is wrong. Thank you for the info. -
Russ

Great observation Bill; I wish you were sure of the last two digits.
But if it was 98.28 and coupled with JW at 99.10 not fitting into
standard paytables, I believe those are the actual returns. Before
your post, I had estimated that the Pick Em's probably returned 98%
and at the most 99% given the number who do not know perfect
strategy, do not want to play perfect strategy (ie. go for Royals
more often), or who play somewhat casually and recklessly and do not
pay attention. Table blackjack, whose non-counting strategy is very
well-known, is rated at 98% in most casinos even though optimal
strategy should yield 99.7% and quite higher for those who count.

Whenever I have not played for a while, I practice on the computer
and I get amazed at how many careless errors I make, and then get
more careful. Most people play for fun, do not practice, and have no
idea when they're blundering like crazy -- no bells and whistles when
you err -- and mistakes at pick em' cost more EV than other VP.

I don't know what you mean by it was not updating as people played as
the machine you were looking at was disabled. It would be doubtful
those readings would be for anything but that one individual
machine. They need to know if one machine is performing
substantially different than the others. [The progressive (variable
jackpot) slots have extra units attached to transfer data from the
other machines.] What we do not know from your data though is how
far back it goes, whether it was from the last time they worked on
the machine, or before they re-upgraded the paytable.

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "billkennedy3"
<billkennedy3@...> wrote:

Just wanted to post a quick message re: the $1 Pick 'ems. I was at
MS Friday-Saturday, and happened to be sitting next to a disabled

$1

PE machine when a tech came by with a replacement mainboard for

it.

I watched him go through the setup procedure, and one screen in
particular caught my eye.

This screen listed all of the games available on the machine, and

had

a column labled "Pct", which I assumed was the longterm percentage
payback on the game with perfect play. The numbers in the columns
didn't make sense, though:

Pick 'Em: 98.28 (or something close to that -- definately 98.xx)
Triple Trouble Poker (the game with the devils): 98.48
Joker Wild (or whatever the single Joker game is named): 99.10
That video slot game: 90.xx

The highest number was 99.10 for the Joker Wild game, and the

lowest

was 90.xx for the Slot game. I was curious about Triple Trouble
because it seems to be a popular game, but it is impossible to
analyze because of the random nature of the devils -- it was

actually

listed a bit higher than PE.

I know that PE returns 99.95% with perfect play over the long-term,
so I'm curious as to what these numbers represented. I don't

believe

that they represented the actual longterm return, since the tech

was

looking at EPROM settings (electronically-programmable read-only
memory), and there wouldn't be any technical way to have the

numbers

···

update as people played. I also believe that the number would be
much higher for PE as it is an easy game that gets a lot of use by
regulars that I would assume know how to play.

Anyone know?

Just as a sidenote, I've played well over a million hands of PE at
MS, and I keep very good records. I have no reason to believe that
the machines there are anything but fair (I'm VERY close to 100%
return on the game -- actually a tiny bit over).

I only meant that the numbers wouldn't be updatable as people played
because the tech was working in EPROM settings. The ROM stands for
read-ONLY memory -- which means the machine would have no way to
update this number "on the fly". EPROM settings are
typically "program these once, and remember them forever" kind of
things.

I would have also come to the conclusion that these numbers
represented actual returns, but I ruled it out due to the reason
above.

I agree with you for the most part, but I wouldn't compare the FP PE
machines to BJ. There are a lot of BJ tables in the casino -- it is
a popular game and you get a LOT of people playing it that have no
idea what they're doing. I go to MS about once a month, and I see
the same faces playing those 9-10 FP PE machines EVERY time. I
notice some of these people making the occasional minor mistake, but
for the most part, I believe that the majority of people playing
these machines are playing them close to optimally. Once in awhile,
you'll see a non-regular sit down for 10-20 minutes and play without
a clue, but that amount of play is neglible when you consider that
the locals have the machines pretty much locked up.

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "steviemcc1"
<steviemcc1@...> wrote:

Great observation Bill; I wish you were sure of the last two

digits.

But if it was 98.28 and coupled with JW at 99.10 not fitting into
standard paytables, I believe those are the actual returns. Before
your post, I had estimated that the Pick Em's probably returned 98%
and at the most 99% given the number who do not know perfect
strategy, do not want to play perfect strategy (ie. go for Royals
more often), or who play somewhat casually and recklessly and do

not

pay attention. Table blackjack, whose non-counting strategy is

very

well-known, is rated at 98% in most casinos even though optimal
strategy should yield 99.7% and quite higher for those who count.

Whenever I have not played for a while, I practice on the computer
and I get amazed at how many careless errors I make, and then get
more careful. Most people play for fun, do not practice, and have

no

idea when they're blundering like crazy -- no bells and whistles

when

you err -- and mistakes at pick em' cost more EV than other VP.

I don't know what you mean by it was not updating as people played

as

the machine you were looking at was disabled. It would be doubtful
those readings would be for anything but that one individual
machine. They need to know if one machine is performing
substantially different than the others. [The progressive

(variable

jackpot) slots have extra units attached to transfer data from the
other machines.] What we do not know from your data though is how
far back it goes, whether it was from the last time they worked on
the machine, or before they re-upgraded the paytable.

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "billkennedy3"
<billkennedy3@> wrote:
>
> Just wanted to post a quick message re: the $1 Pick 'ems. I was

at

> MS Friday-Saturday, and happened to be sitting next to a disabled
$1
> PE machine when a tech came by with a replacement mainboard for
it.
> I watched him go through the setup procedure, and one screen in
> particular caught my eye.
>
> This screen listed all of the games available on the machine, and
had
> a column labled "Pct", which I assumed was the longterm

percentage

> payback on the game with perfect play. The numbers in the

columns

> didn't make sense, though:
>
> Pick 'Em: 98.28 (or something close to that -- definately 98.xx)
> Triple Trouble Poker (the game with the devils): 98.48
> Joker Wild (or whatever the single Joker game is named): 99.10
> That video slot game: 90.xx
>
> The highest number was 99.10 for the Joker Wild game, and the
lowest
> was 90.xx for the Slot game. I was curious about Triple Trouble
> because it seems to be a popular game, but it is impossible to
> analyze because of the random nature of the devils -- it was
actually
> listed a bit higher than PE.
>
> I know that PE returns 99.95% with perfect play over the long-

term,

> so I'm curious as to what these numbers represented. I don't
believe
> that they represented the actual longterm return, since the tech
was
> looking at EPROM settings (electronically-programmable read-only
> memory), and there wouldn't be any technical way to have the
numbers
> update as people played. I also believe that the number would be
> much higher for PE as it is an easy game that gets a lot of use

by

> regulars that I would assume know how to play.
>
> Anyone know?
>
> Just as a sidenote, I've played well over a million hands of PE

at

> MS, and I keep very good records. I have no reason to believe

that

···

> the machines there are anything but fair (I'm VERY close to 100%
> return on the game -- actually a tiny bit over).
>

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "billkennedy3"
<billkennedy3@...> wrote:

···

I only meant that the numbers wouldn't be updatable as people played
because the tech was working in EPROM settings. The ROM stands for
read-ONLY memory -- which means the machine would have no way to
update this number "on the fly". EPROM settings are
typically "program these once, and remember them forever" kind of
things.

=======================

I was there the day the tech got that machine working and also can
verify the numbers that you mentioned. I don't remember them all but I
did notice the PickEm and the Jokers Wild (I think 99.10). I was
surprised that the PickEm % didn't match what I thought it should have
been since I thought the numbers referred to the payback of the game.
I concluded that the value was tied to what the machine had payed back
to date ( coin-in / coin-out ).

With regard to your statement about there being no way to change the
values stored in the EPROM, that is not necessarily so. The EP in
EPROM stands for "Electronically Programmable" so they can be
programmed on the fly as necessary. I am a software developer
currently working on an aviation equipment project. A few of the
boards in our system have EPROMs and we use them to store serial
numbers, coefficients and other parameters but also to keep track of
elapsed time for some of the equipment. I have software routines that
can read the data from these EPROMs and also update them peridically.
So, I think it would be a fair guess to say those numbers represented
some percentage of play or payout for that machine.

I saw the numbers on the 4th machine the night before but didn't
realize what the screen was until after the tech had cleared it. I did
see the numbers on the 3rd machine that next day (the tech had fixed
the 4th machine and was checking something else on the 3rd). I think
it would be interesting to see the numbers from another machine and
compare the two. If the number were identical, then that would really
make me wonder but if they were different, as I suspect, then it most
likely is some percentage that is being tracked for each game. Anyway,
I think it will be a while before we get another chance to see those
screen again.

Good luck to all,

Jack