vpFREE2 Forums

Mohegan Sun royals

#1

There was some discussion a little while ago about VP machines being tight
at Mohegan Sun. Just want to report that I was there again this morning to
use my free slot play, playing at the bar in the Hall of Lost Tribes. Held A
and Q of spades and the rest filled in for a royal - that's the second this
week, so if there's an issue with the machines at the bar, it sure is working
positively for me:)

Sandy

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#2

There was some discussion a little while ago about VP machines

being tight

at Mohegan Sun. Just want to report that I was there again this

morning to

use my free slot play, playing at the bar in the Hall of Lost

Tribes. Held A

and Q of spades and the rest filled in for a royal - that's the

second this

week, so if there's an issue with the machines at the bar, it sure

is working

positively for me:)

Sandy

Nice Hit.

It's the nature of an honest machine to be streaky. If it hits at
fixed intervals, it's not honest, it's fixed. Random processes
produce streaky patterns. It's nice to be on the right side of the
bell (called the normal distribution) curve, but you will never know
until afterwards. And, if you play long enough, you WILL also have
times on the left side of the curve where nothing seems to hit. So
you need bankroll (several royals worth) when that happens to you.

The royal cycle in 9/6 Jacks is 40,390 hands. So if there are 40,390
video poker machines hitting royals at exactly the same time, you can
expect one of those machines to hit back-to-back (BTB) royals. For
you 100 line players in Nevada, by your 404th royal you have a good
chance of experiencing a back-to-back royal. Or if 404 of you are
playing the 100 line machines for one royal cycle, one of you should
expect a back-to-back.

But that's all just an average. If all 404 of you played 1000 royal-
length sessions on your 100 line machines, there would likely be 1000
BTB royals to divy up. Some would get multiples, some would get
none. The average is about 2 and a half. The distribution is the
bell curve. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets
you. Grin and bear it.

Las Vegas regulations require that all machines installed anywhere
in the USA, are qualified for randomness if they are to be also
installed in Las Vegas. So you typical IGT and Bally games at
Mohegan are tested and honest. They play the same here as there. In
a word, streaky.

···

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, SAbramo102@... wrote:

#3

TT,

I really like what you are tyring to express, but the distribution of royals is not a bell curve
at all-- its follows a poisson distribution. After a great number of royal cycles it gets
close to a bell curve, and even after 10, a bell curve might be a reasonable approx, but at
1 or 5 no way. Dan Paymer's VP book has a pretty good discussion on how to use a Poisson distribution to compute expected numbers of royals, etc...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution

The distribution of the game return is also decidedly not a bell curve, though many like to
think otherwise. Indeed is has, thankfully, a long postive tail, where the RF lives. It does,
however, in some central region, begin to appear like the bell curve after a lot of hands, of
course. Although the wikipedia entry on the central limit is quite poor (and arguably
misleading), it does show how things tend to become like a bell curve sooner or later...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem

Nice Hit.

snip

The royal cycle in 9/6 Jacks is 40,390 hands.

snip
The distribution is the

bell curve. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets
you. Grin and bear it.

snip

···

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "turbotrader2" <TurboTrader2@...> wrote:

In
a word, streaky.