This type of observation is fairly common. If you go back into the VP free message archive, there are a lot of similar posts. What you don't typically find is any data supporting the claim.
Record keeping is a pain but without it, there's no way to quantify whether playing conditions have changed or not.
Let's take the first part of the statement. Your question is whether the playing conditions at MGM Grand Detroit have gotten worse over the last 3 months for video poker players.
Now, MGM Grand is known for lower payback video poker schedules. I think the best payback on $0.50 DDB is 8/5. This makes it a sub 97% game with a ton of volatility. On average, you should lose $45 per hour playing a leisurely 600 hands per hour. Take a good look at that number. Play for 4 hours and if you do better than losing $180, you are having above average success.
In between royals, you will lose about $75/hour. No royal, aces w/kicker or 2-4/kicker and you lose about $150/hour.
2-4 with a kicker is about a 7000 hand cycle, Aces/kicker is about a 16,000 hand cycle a royal is about a 40000 hand cycle. Cycle to hit one of these hands is about 4300 hands. So at 600 hph, you will play , ON AVERAGE, a little over 7 hours before you hit one of the big hands and be down $1000 in that time.
DDB at MGM will cost you a lot of money. If you play any significant amount of hands , you can not be ahead on the game.
Now for the part about the royals. The size of the progressive gives you one piece of the puzzle. You also need to know the meter rise.
Easiest way to figure it is to go when the bank is empty, run $100 through and track how much the meter increases. If it goes up $1 , that is a 1% meter. If it goes up $0.50, that is a 0.5% meter. From there, you can track how many hands between royals. The tough part is you will probably miss that royals that were hit quickly unless you watch the meter for a week straight.
$8000 royal on a 1% meter rise means $400,000 has been played since the last royal. That is 80,000 hands at the $1 level or about 2 royal cycles. Those happen all the time.
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--- In vpFREE_Detroit@yahoogroups.com, "bzvw3l01" <madams583@...> wrote:
I'm curious to see if other regular poker players at MGM have noticed a dramatic decrease in success over the past 3 months at MGM Detroit. I've been a regular player (approx twice a week) since MGM Detroit opened. I generally play 50 cent - dollar Double Double, Triple Double, and Jacks or Better. I've had my fair share of success over the years, but it became extremely noticable over the past 3 months that the machines appear to offer significantly lower play. Their only dollar progressive has been over $8,000 three different times I've seen over this timeframe. In 8 years, I've never seen it over $8,000.