Some of you may have received the same Billy Joel offer I received via
email from the MGM Grand. The offer is only for locals and stated
that if I earn 1,500 points in one day at MGM I'd earn 2 free $131.25
tickets to see the Billy Joel concert on February 14. According to
MGM's page on the Index, it takes $4.50 coin-in (c/i) to earn 1 point.
Therefore, $6,750 c/i = 1,500 points. If I play 9/6 JoB with a
99.54% EV, my return would be about $6,719. That's about a $31
expected loss for tickets worth $262.50. Also, adding in MGM's earned
comps plus discretionary comps apparently add about another 1/2 point
to the 99.54% I'd get playing JoB, which seems to make this about a
break even proposition. Are my assumptions correct or am I missing
something? It would be great to see Billy Joel for "free," but I'd
hate to lose more than what break even would be. Any comments would
be appreciated.
MGM Grand Billy Joel Offer
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpcostsmoney" <vpcostsmoney@...>
wrote:
Some of you may have received the same Billy Joel offer I received
via
email from the MGM Grand. The offer is only for locals and stated
that if I earn 1,500 points in one day at MGM I'd earn 2 free
$131.25
tickets to see the Billy Joel concert on February 14. According to
MGM's page on the Index, it takes $4.50 coin-in (c/i) to earn 1
point.
Therefore, $6,750 c/i = 1,500 points. If I play 9/6 JoB with a
99.54% EV, my return would be about $6,719. That's about a $31
expected loss for tickets worth $262.50. Also, adding in MGM's
earned
comps plus discretionary comps apparently add about another 1/2
point
to the 99.54% I'd get playing JoB, which seems to make this about a
break even proposition. Are my assumptions correct or am I missing
something? It would be great to see Billy Joel for "free," but I'd
hate to lose more than what break even would be. Any comments would
be appreciated.
I'm good at math but certainly not a wizard as many who post on this
site could justifiably claim as to their proficiency.
But without even jotting down a single number I do know the danger of
assigning a long-term return to a short timeframe. It simply isn't
accurate.
That's why you bankroll from a longer perspective. Your $6750 coin-in
might bring you a royal and a return well over 100%. I hope it does.
But you also might get no royal, no SF, fewer 4Ks than expected and
end up losing a thousand or two. Unlikely, but, yes, people do
experience that result at good old 9/6 Jacks on a bad day.
One way of preventing that is by playing for the lowest denomination
possible. That way, your $6750 buys you more hands and gets you
closer to the long-term 99.54%. You play longer, but going through
more hands hopefully gets you through those rough patches in the road.
In this situation that strategy can't work, because, guess what? The
mighty MGM-Grand will not be outsmarted since they simply don't offer
you 9/6 Jacks below the $1 level!
About the best you can do is to play only one hand at a time on the
50 or 100 play $1 machine in high limit. By the time you're done in a
few hours I hope you've achieved your goal. But, for me, I'm very
wary of offers that seem like such a simple goal but are difficult
without the lower denomination machines to help achieve it. And do
think twice about how you'll feel if those 2 "free" tickets end up
costing you a thousand. Ouch.
Run Lotspiech's calculator, it will give you the distribution of
possible results:
http://www.lotspiech.com/poker/GamblersRuin.html
Also there's a good chance that MGM will say that play on 9/6 jacks
doesn't qualify, after you've earned the points of course, especially
if you win.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpcostsmoney" <vpcostsmoney@...> wrote:
Some of you may have received the same Billy Joel offer I received via
email from the MGM Grand. The offer is only for locals and stated
that if I earn 1,500 points in one day at MGM I'd earn 2 free $131.25
tickets to see the Billy Joel concert on February 14. According to
MGM's page on the Index, it takes $4.50 coin-in (c/i) to earn 1 point.
Therefore, $6,750 c/i = 1,500 points. If I play 9/6 JoB with a
99.54% EV, my return would be about $6,719. That's about a $31
expected loss for tickets worth $262.50. Also, adding in MGM's earned
comps plus discretionary comps apparently add about another 1/2 point
to the 99.54% I'd get playing JoB, which seems to make this about a
break even proposition. Are my assumptions correct or am I missing
something? It would be great to see Billy Joel for "free," but I'd
hate to lose more than what break even would be. Any comments would
be appreciated.
Thanx for the info. I won't be trying to get those "free tix" after all.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpcostsmoney" <vpcostsmoney@> wrote:
>
> Some of you may have received the same Billy Joel offer I received via
> email from the MGM Grand. The offer is only for locals and stated
> that if I earn 1,500 points in one day at MGM I'd earn 2 free $131.25
> tickets to see the Billy Joel concert on February 14. According to
> MGM's page on the Index, it takes $4.50 coin-in (c/i) to earn 1 point.
> Therefore, $6,750 c/i = 1,500 points. If I play 9/6 JoB with a
> 99.54% EV, my return would be about $6,719. That's about a $31
> expected loss for tickets worth $262.50. Also, adding in MGM's earned
> comps plus discretionary comps apparently add about another 1/2 point
> to the 99.54% I'd get playing JoB, which seems to make this about a
> break even proposition. Are my assumptions correct or am I missing
> something? It would be great to see Billy Joel for "free," but I'd
> hate to lose more than what break even would be. Any comments would
> be appreciated.
>