In a message dated 12/16/2003 8:07:02 PM Pacific Standard Time,
brumar_lv@yahoo.com writes:
Each pull, one chance in 48,806,447.
Brian
Thanks Brian, thats very interesting. Based on $3 a pull, that means
IGT collected $146,419,340 before they paid the +$40 million jackpot,
leaving about $106,419,000 to cover expenses. Is that a great
business or what!!!!!!
Your figures are way too high for several reasons.
First of all, other combinations pay off, not just the top Jackpot. I have
heard that Megabucks machines pay back around 85%, NOT including the Jackpot.
Second, I don't know the meter contribution to the top Jackpot. Without that
piece of information, it is impossible to calculate how much the overall
"hold" of the Megabucks machines are. A good estimate might be a 7-8% overall hold.
Additionally, I don't know what the split is between the casino and IGT of
the machines' "take."
A 2% meter would put the average Jackpot at just under $10,000,000. This
seems a little low to me, based upon the most recent Jackpots. Maybe a 3% meter?
That would make the average Jackpot $11,400,000. At any rate, if the return
minus the Jackpot is 85%, and reset is $7,000,000, then the payback at reset is
(not accounting for the fact that the Jackpot is not paid out in one lump sum)
7,000,000/(48,806,447 X 3) + .85 = 89.78%. If the meter is 3%, overall return
would be 92.78%. Break-even (not counting slot club benefits) would be when
the Jackpot's present value got to just under $22,000,000. It seems likely,
since the Jackpot is not paid out in a lump sum, that the game has never actually
gone positive!
Finally, if you've ever watched folks play the Megabucks machines, you've
observed that a good percentage of them play just one coin. These are the people
wandering around the casino with a bucket of dollars, dropping one into this
machine and one into that machine. These people are playing Megabucks at just a
fraction over 85%, since they cannot actually hit the Jackpot.
I understand that IGT is doing quite well financially!
Brian
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