Gilbert Escobar
If the any of the progressive meters rises to over
$1,200.00 (say from $1,000.00) or where you would end
up with that IRS form, how does this figure into the
overall percentage?
The gist of this question is: Does the fact that a jackpot is
reported to the IRS affect the expected return on a machine?
In brief, if you itemize your tax deductions already, No.
Now for my typical long-winded discussion of the factors involved. I
always hope these prove to be more educational than they are a bore :).
Tax reporting of a jackpot is not a factor in determining the return
on a machine, per se. There is a qualification to this, but it's a
satisfactory answer in and of itself. Technically, taxation is a
complex factor that can be factored in all play but is generally ignored.
HOWEVER, if you file a 1040-A or 1040-EZ, then it is a significant
factor. You'll end up paying tax on any W2-G reported jackpots
because you can't offset reported wins with other losses.
Now, either way, most people will prefer to ignore the tax
consequences since the considerations and implications for play can be
unwieldy. However, I'll detail them FYI.
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For the player who doesn't itemize deductions, this means that if you
were to be accurate in analyzing the return of a machine with any wins
of $1200 or more, you should reduce those wins to the amount you'll be
left with after taxes. The same goes if you're going to determine a
modified play strategy that reflects the progressive amounts using a
product such as VP Strategy Master or Frugal Video Poker. This is
because you want to employ a strategy that maximizes the amount you
end up with in your pocket after taxes, not the amount that the taxman
can latch on to.
The means by which to do this is to determine your marginal tax rate.
For most middle-income taxpayers, this is likely to be 28%. Then, if
you're analyzing game return with WinPoker or FVP, reduce any payoffs
of $1200 or more by that rate. For example, a payoff of $2000 would
be reduced to $1440. Note that this is appropriate for a
non-progressive game as well, such as $.50 vp with a $2000 RF. Use
this revised payoff schedule to determine game return with WP/FVP.
Next, use the payoff schedule with vpsm/FVP to determine a revised
strategy.
Finally, if you don't plan to change the strategy that you're going to
play progressive game or, for that matter, a standard paytable with
wins in excess of $1199, then the return analysis takes a different
approach.
To do this you first need to determine the game return for the payoff
table that reflects the base strategy that you plan to use. This is
because this will be based upon a hand distribution reflecting the
strategy you are using, not a revised strategy for the updated
payoffs. Then, examine the individual return % for each hand and
reduce that by 28% and use this reduction to determine the revised
after-tax return of the game. Take $.50 JB for example: The $2K RF
accounts for 1.98% of the return. 28% of this amount is roughly .56%.
This means the JB 99.54% return results in an effective return of
98.98% for the player who doesn't itemize.
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Now, let me briefly discuss the player who currently itemizes
deductions. This person can deduct all losses against wins.
Therefore, the reported RF really doesn't receive any different
treatment than any unreported wins.
I'm not going to delve into the details of tax reporting for an
itemizer, other than to say that for practical purposes hitting a
reportable win has no particular consequence different than any other win.
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Note, I have avoided the frequent misnomer of "taxable jackpot". All
winnings are taxable, no matter what the filing method of the
taxpayer. As to what a particular taxpayer chooses to report is
matter that rests between their conscience and the IRS. (And let's
not extend any discussion into that topic, ok? It's an exercize that
doesn't enlighten or educate.)
- Harry