vpFREE2 Forums

Math v. Superstition?

#1

The "error" is not in changing machines because you've had a "cold streak". The error is thinking / believing that changing machines will really make a difference in future outcome. The other reasons for changing machines are done with a belief that it will be less drafty, that the lighting will be better, that you will be in better company, etc. -- expectations that may have a more factual basis, and good reason for "believing" that THOSE changes will occur. But to think your "luck will change" with a machine change is NOT a reasonable expectation unless you believe that different machines with the same computer hardware are in fact statistically different in their expected performance for mysterious reasons that we can't perceive.

--BG

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1.1. Re: Math v. Superstition?
Date: Wed Dec 14, 2011 9:18 am ((PST))

I have never understood the "purists" scoffing at people
who change machines after a "cold" streak. The fact is
that it really doesn't matter which machine you use - the
odds are identical - so if one chooses to change machines
because of an annoying draft, bad lighting, an obnoxious
player nearby, wanting a change of scenery, or tiring of
putting money in and getting none back, it makes no
difference. One can continue on the same machine or
move, and it should make no difference - so why the flap if
you decide to move to a new machine? Makes no sense to
me.

#2

No,I'm telling you. Don't you guys know how to do anthing? Spit on the machine. That's how you get things done.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Barry Glazer <b.glazer@...> wrote:

The "error" is not in changing machines because you've had a "cold streak". The error is thinking / believing that changing machines will really make a difference in future outcome. The other reasons for changing machines are done with a belief that it will be less drafty, that the lighting will be better, that you will be in better company, etc. -- expectations that may have a more factual basis, and good reason for "believing" that THOSE changes will occur. But to think your "luck will change" with a machine change is NOT a reasonable expectation unless you believe that different machines with the same computer hardware are in fact statistically different in their expected performance for mysterious reasons that we can't perceive.

--BG

#3

Being on a losing machine can be very stressful.And since changing machines will not make a difference in your results,if it makes you feel better emotionally,then why not do it.You actually gain something....you feel better.People can believe what they want about individual trails,but as long as you don't change playing the best EV machines possible with the best strategy possible,Who cares what you believe.The purists feel that you've committed some kind of sacrilege for doing so.

Marc

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-----Original Message-----
From: Barry Glazer <b.glazer@att.net>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thu, Dec 15, 2011 7:14 pm
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Math v. Superstition?

The "error" is not in changing machines because you've had a "cold streak". The error is thinking / believing that changing machines will really make a difference in future outcome. The other reasons for changing machines are done with a belief that it will be less drafty, that the lighting will be better, that you will be in better company, etc. -- expectations that may have a more factual basis, and good reason for "believing" that THOSE changes will occur. But to think your "luck will change" with a machine change is NOT a reasonable expectation unless you believe that different machines with the same computer hardware are in fact statistically different in their expected performance for mysterious reasons that we can't perceive.

--BG

1.1. Re: Math v. Superstition?
    Date: Wed Dec 14, 2011 9:18 am ((PST))

I have never understood the "purists" scoffing at people
who change machines after a "cold" streak. The fact is
that it really doesn't matter which machine you use - the
odds are identical - so if one chooses to change machines
because of an annoying draft, bad lighting, an obnoxious
player nearby, wanting a change of scenery, or tiring of
putting money in and getting none back, it makes no
difference. One can continue on the same machine or
move, and it should make no difference - so why the flap if
you decide to move to a new machine? Makes no sense to
me.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

Being on a losing machine can be very stressful.And since changing machines will not make a difference in your results,if it makes you feel better emotionally,then why not do it.You actually gain something....you feel better.People can believe what they want about individual trails,but as long as you don't change playing the best EV machines possible with the best strategy possible,Who cares what you believe.The purists feel that you've committed some kind of sacrilege for doing so.

Marc

Since this horse apparently still has a twitch or two left in it, let me go ahead and take a strike with my club ...

I get what you're saying. But I still stumble over the idea that switching machines would make someone "feel better", in absence of some gut feeling that their luck is more likely to change for the better.

I'm not sure who these "purists" are ... for myself, frankly I couldn't give a crap how often someone hops around machines -- that's their business. But I count myself a "very disciplined" player (and regard that as a critical success factor, when it comes to vp play).

I'm not immune to misgivings and second thoughts when confronted with a very sour session. But, assuming that I've otherwise been satisfied with the comfort and other characteristics of the machine I've been playing, I'm loathe to allow a bad session alone to prompt me to change machine.

You're correct in pointing out that switching, alone, has no material impact on play expectation. But I'm hesitant to accept that it's always without consequence.

Generally speaking, I find optimal play requires that I regularly set aside temporary misgiving or doubts about my play in order to ensure that I best take advantage of the opportunities at hand. An example can be pushing to play through a sour session when there's a strong advantage in doing so. Another can involve making a prudent choice between plays when my "gut" may be pushing me in a direction other than the best economic option.

Frequently, opting for the best choices means carefully weighing all factors at hand and sometimes going with one that involves some discomfort. And so it is that I'm caused to suspect that someone who switches machines because of a bad session might also be prone to make less than optimal play choices in the interest of "feeling better".

Obviously, we're talking supposition here. I likely don't know the first thing about the hypothetical player in question (unless it happens to be my wife ;). And, when it comes down to it, I really could care less. All the same, this is the presumption that arises in my mind.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, marccarfi@... wrote:

#5

Non-math comments!!!

If you are doing a negative play, move around as much as you can - less play, less exposure to casino edge.

If you are doing a positive play, don't move unless you have a "valid" reason: i.e. health factors, a nearby smoker is putting your health at risk, cold air is coming down right on your shoulders and giving you discomfort/pain.

Other valid reasons might be psychological, i.e., you're in a losing streak and you are tempted to go "on tilt" and might decide to stray from basic strategy. Or, you get so upset, you aren't thinking straight and make strategy errors. In these cases, a better option might be to go take a walk, get some fresh air, go take a nap, etc. etc., rather than going to another machine.

Streaks happen - change machines whenever you want to, for whatever reason. Just don't think that changing between two machines with the same paytable is going to change the long-term odds. And you can't know in advance whether the new machine is going to be better or worse in the short-term. Waste of brain cells to try to predict the future results.

What concerns me more is people who change games all the time in one session, moving from one with a better EV to one with a lower one. There might be a valid reason to change once, to seek lower volatility - your bankroll is going down. But I see players all the time go back and forth every few minutes, hoping to find a game that is "luckier." No one can switch games that often and not make strategy errors, momentarily forgetting what game they are playing. It is hard enough to switch games from one day to the next and not suffer from momentary lack of concentration. And the sad thing about all this is sometimes I know the people who are doing this and they think they are "advantage" players - and then hear them complain about their long losing streaks.

I say this kindly: You can't just talk the talk, you have to walk the walk. Some players might be happier if they just accept in their mind that they are recreational gamblers, which is a perfectly acceptable goal.

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http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
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