vpFREE2 Forums

Math v. Superstition?

#1

The reason people have so much difficulty leaving a machine that isn't producing winning hands is because they keep trying to "teach it a lesson". It can never hurt to switch from such machines, and the psychological factor alone is worth the break in the action for most players.

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Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4GLTE smartphone

----- Reply message -----
From: "Tom Robertson" <007@embarqmail.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Math v. Superstition?
Date: Tue, Dec 13, 2011 7:05 pm
armchairpresident wrote:

I have not moved from machines that are taking my money

If you replaced "are taking" with "took," that should eliminate a lot

of misconceptions. The phrase "are taking" is based on an

unsupportable, hopelessly complicated theory.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

The reason people have so much difficulty leaving a machine that isn't
producing winning hands is because they keep trying to "teach it a lesson".
It can never hurt to switch from such machines, and the psychological factor
alone is worth the break in the action for most players.

---I think it is more of thinking the downward spiral can't continue, not
"teaching the machine a lesson." Never heard that one. I agree, a change
can't hurt but nor can it help.

Scot

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-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On Behalf Of
rob.singer1111@yahoo.com
Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 9:00 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Math v. Superstition?

#3

I could argue that moving machines when it's futile costs the effort
to make it, but that would only distract from the potential greater
cost. Moving machines, assuming they have identical paytables and
work mechanically identically, means that one believes that the recent
losing streak on the first machine means that its expected value is
worse than the second machine. By how much? There's no reason to
limit this difference. What's to stop the player with this
misconception from moving from a 10/7 machine to a 9/7 machine? Is
there any reason to assume that the player believes the "trend" cost
of playing the first machine is less than 1.1%?

rob wrote:

···

The reason people have so much difficulty leaving a machine that isn't producing winning hands is because they keep trying to "teach it a lesson". It can never hurt to switch from such machines, and the psychological factor alone is worth the break in the action for most players.

Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4GLTE smartphone

----- Reply message -----
From: "Tom Robertson" <007@embarqmail.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Math v. Superstition?
Date: Tue, Dec 13, 2011 7:05 pm
armchairpresident wrote:

I have not moved from machines that are taking my money

If you replaced "are taking" with "took," that should eliminate a lot

of misconceptions. The phrase "are taking" is based on an

unsupportable, hopelessly complicated theory.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

<<I think it is more of thinking the downward spiral can't continue, not
"teaching the machine a lesson." >>

I knew someone who would put a "naughty machine" in "time out" for a short time and switch to another machine nearby.

···

________________
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

I teach "bad" machines the worst lesson of all. I stay on them.

Jean wrote:

···

<<I think it is more of thinking the downward spiral can't continue, not
"teaching the machine a lesson." >>

I knew someone who would put a "naughty machine" in "time out" for a short time and switch to another machine nearby.
________________
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#6

When that happens I tend to get excited because it usually means something good is coming. I had a machine play very cold for hours, then like a switch was turned on the 4 of a kinds, straight flushes, and full houses started pouring out.

#7

" I had a machine play very cold for hours, then like a switch was turned on the 4 of a kinds, straight flushes, and full houses started pouring out."

Because that machine went into a randomly generated "good streak" - which occurs in random patterns. No one knows when it might start, or end.

So, even though I know one machine is identical to another, I might switch machines in the hopes of encountering one that starts out faster into a "good streak".

Frank had some good discussions on the list a while back talking about this....his advice was to stand up; announce loudly that you were going to change machines, then sit back down again at the same machine.

Even in live poker those random streaks of good hands would seem to all go to a certain seat at the table for a while. Then people would say, "Play your rush - play every hand". Not the most sound advice but I will say at those time it seemed like you almost could play "every hand" when the cards are coming like that in your favor.

Valerie

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The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.

http://www.eset.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#8

Live poker is different than other forms of gambling in this regard.
Not because the cards have memory or that you can actually predict the
length of a rush, but because you are playing against other fallible
human players, and if the other players *perceive* you to be on a
lucky streak, how they react to your play might be different. They
may fold more readily, making bluffs more likely to succeed. Knowing
your current table image can be a useful poker skill.

···

On Wed, Dec 14, 2011 at 7:45 AM, Valerie Pollard <vpollard@socal.rr.com> wrote:

Even in live poker those random streaks of good hands would seem to all
go to a certain seat at the table for a while. Then people would say,
"Play your rush - play every hand". Not the most sound advice but I
will say at those time it seemed like you almost could play "every hand"
when the cards are coming like that in your favor.

#9

" if the other players *perceive* you to be on a
lucky streak, how they react to your play might be different. They
may fold more readily, making bluffs more likely to succeed. Knowing
your current table image can be a useful poker skill."

Yes that's very true, too.

V

__________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus signature database 6712 (20111214) __________

The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.

http://www.eset.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#10

A ride is a ride, doesn't matter if machine or horse or whatever, you can't even let it be thinking it can just buck you off whenever it's not in the mood. Ride like Patton and Churchill, they shot their rides at the first sign of insubordination and ordered a fresh mount, that's how they kept their jeep pools in top shape also. If you can't mount with authority, don't even get on, hop in back in carriage with the rest of the civilians and complain about the rough ride all you want cause it won't get you nowhere.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkdqCTcDkbc

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

I teach "bad" machines the worst lesson of all. I stay on them.

Jean wrote:

><<I think it is more of thinking the downward spiral can't continue, not
>"teaching the machine a lesson." >>
>
>I knew someone who would put a "naughty machine" in "time out" for a short time and switch to another machine nearby.
>________________
>Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
>http://queenofcomps.com/
>You can read my blog at
>http://jscott.lvablog.com/
>
>
>[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#11

Very well put, Peter. And if I might add, when you are getting bad cards or having bad luck, your opponents are inspired by your misfortune. They attack more readily, they take shots at you, they play better against you. So unless the game is REALLY good, then it is a good time to find another game.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter M." <midnight1626@...> wrote:

Live poker is different than other forms of gambling in this regard.
Not because the cards have memory or that you can actually predict the
length of a rush, but because you are playing against other fallible
human players, and if the other players *perceive* you to be on a
lucky streak, how they react to your play might be different. They
may fold more readily, making bluffs more likely to succeed. Knowing
your current table image can be a useful poker skill.

#12

I can't tell if you're joking or not. That ain't true, is it? They didn't really shoot them, did they? That's horrible. lol Tell me you're kidding.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

Ride like Patton and Churchill, they shot their rides at the first sign of insubordination and ordered a fresh mount,

#13

Bob Bartop wrote:

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter M." <midnight1626@...> wrote:

Live poker is different than other forms of gambling in this regard.
Not because the cards have memory or that you can actually predict the
length of a rush, but because you are playing against other fallible
human players, and if the other players *perceive* you to be on a
lucky streak, how they react to your play might be different. They
may fold more readily, making bluffs more likely to succeed. Knowing
your current table image can be a useful poker skill.

Very well put, Peter. And if I might add, when you are getting bad cards or having bad luck, your opponents are inspired by your misfortune. They attack more readily, they take shots at you, they play better against you. So unless the game is REALLY good, then it is a good time to find another game.

Wouldn't that be a good time to play more passively and encourage
aggressive players to play even more over-aggressive?

#14

I guess that would be advisable, IF for whatever reason I choose to stay in the game. But I've usually played in venues where there are many games within walking or driving distance. There's just so many ways opponents play better against you when you're getting your butt kicked. Even little old ladies who have not bluffed since the Truman Administration, suddenly they rob you. I might as well find a fresh game, sit down in it, and lie about how hot I've been running lately.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

Wouldn't that be a good time to play more passively and encourage
aggressive players to play even more over-aggressive?

#15

Most players generally play too passively, too straightforwardly, with not enough bluffing. So their natural reaction to a losing player actually has them playing more balanced and better overall. Sure you shift your strategy to account, but you're usually going to be less profitable on the whole.

Ed

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Sent from my iPhone

On Dec 14, 2011, at 4:00 PM, Tom Robertson <007@embarqmail.com> wrote:

Bob Bartop wrote:

>--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter M." <midnight1626@...> wrote:
>>
>> Live poker is different than other forms of gambling in this regard.
>> Not because the cards have memory or that you can actually predict the
>> length of a rush, but because you are playing against other fallible
>> human players, and if the other players *perceive* you to be on a
>> lucky streak, how they react to your play might be different. They
>> may fold more readily, making bluffs more likely to succeed. Knowing
>> your current table image can be a useful poker skill.
>>
>
>
>Very well put, Peter. And if I might add, when you are getting bad cards or having bad luck, your opponents are inspired by your misfortune. They attack more readily, they take shots at you, they play better against you. So unless the game is REALLY good, then it is a good time to find another game.

Wouldn't that be a good time to play more passively and encourage
aggressive players to play even more over-aggressive?

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#16

When does the 2012 Las Vegas Advisor coupon book come out?

Thanks.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#17

Doesn't anyone around here know how to handle a cold machine. You don't leave it. No. No. No. You spit on it, or dump your drink on it, or pound it with your fist. It must be very helpful because I've seen lots of people do it. Whenever I come upon a machine with the glass busted I always think "there goes another satisfied customer."

#18

Hey Ed, glad to have you on vpFREE. I really enjoyed that book "Professional No-Limit Holdem." You taught me some really good stuff.

Any aspiring poker players out there, Ed Miller is a damn good poker teacher.

#19

I couldn't find any video of the mules blocking traffic scene for which Patton had a simple solution but here's one of George C. Scott caught in a sensitive "Dr. Phil" moment with a shell shock victim (now they call it PTSD):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZJcAeJ8YRo

So stop crying and get back on that machine and hit some royals soldier!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Bartop" <bobbartop@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>
> Ride like Patton and Churchill, they shot their rides at the first sign of insubordination and ordered a fresh mount,

I can't tell if you're joking or not. That ain't true, is it? They didn't really shoot them, did they? That's horrible. lol Tell me you're kidding.

#20

First I have to stop crying because I hit a squirrel earlier.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

I couldn't find any video of the mules blocking traffic scene for which Patton had a simple solution but here's one of George C. Scott caught in a sensitive "Dr. Phil" moment with a shell shock victim (now they call it PTSD):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZJcAeJ8YRo

So stop crying and get back on that machine and hit some royals soldier!