You can't expect a .1% return over the long term, even with perfect
play. Over many lifetime samples, that would be the average result.
But the measure for you personally is N0. N0 = variance/(edge^2) hands
of play. If my memory is right, FPDDB variance is 43. So for FPDDB N0
= 43/(.001^2) = 43 million hands. At N0 hands your results will be
(approximately) 84% of the time positive and 16% negative, for a
positive expectation game (reverse for a negative expectation game).
So, bottom line, if you grind out 43 million hands of FPDDB with
perfect play, you can expect to come out ahead 84% of the time but to
lose 16% of the time, assuming you have the bankroll to play all those
hands and that the casino will allow you to play all those hands. For
less than 43 million hands, your results will be less, for example for
one hand your results are 55% nothing and 33% push, which leaves you
just 12% chance of winning one hand.
http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/tables/doubledoublebonus.html
For a breakeven game, your longterm results are not to expect to
breakeven, rather your results will be 50% chance of winning and 50%
chance of losing. A breakeven game is a game of bankrolls, someone
will quit first, either you or the casino, either you will run out of
money or the casino will cut you off for winning too much. The ratio
of those limits determines the probable outcome. For example, if your
stop loss is $50,000 and the casino will kick you out if you win
$20,000 , the longterm results are 5 out of 7 you win $20,000 , 2 out
of 7 you lose $50,000 . For you personally there is nothing breakeven
about this result.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Robert Pickett <robert.pickett70@...>
wrote:
Merry Christmas All,
If I am playing FP DDB (100.1% ) and playing perfectly, I can
expect a .1% positive return over the long long term, right? If say I
am playing at 99% accuracy, is that 1% subtracted from the 100.1% in
terms of expected long long term returns thereby giving me an expected
return of 99.1%. I don't even know if that question makes sense. It
does in my head but I don't know if I asked it correctly. I really
like the feature on Bob Dance's software that tells me my accuracy but
I'll be darned if I have been able to score perfect 100% play over
1000+ hands. Thanks.
Robert
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