vpFREE2 Forums

Matchplay redux (Jean Scott)

To understand the value of match-play coupons consider the following
example.

I think people are getting confused by the mechanics of match-play in
evaluating their value. The effective value of a match play coupon is
the same whether you use it as currently required place a $5 bet with
a $5 mathplay coupon on top if win win=$10 lose =0 OR if you could
place the matchplay coupon on the spot next to your bet and played
two separate hands (a $5 bet on both spots). What would you expect
the return to be on this matchplay spot to be now, over the long run?
The answer is the expected return of the game 99%, which is the same
in both situations.

Now the results of a single trial will most likely be different but
over the Long Run the results are the same the expected value of
these two scenarios are the same. Just like in the long run playing
100,000,000 of single line video poker will produce similar results
to playing 10,000,000 hands of ten play the number of hands played
does not effect expected value. Again the long run expected return of
blackjack is 99%, so that is the percentage of return that you can
expect from these coupons.

I believe you made the simialr mistake initally when you talked about
your multiplay multistrike video poker experience a few weeks back
Playing more hands at a single deal does not change the expected
return over the Long Run, it does effect you the short run experience
becasue you are effectively betting more on you inital deal, but in
the long run this will "wash-out" and has no effect.

Jean, I have skimmed your books, and think they are great. You are
doing a great service to the gambling public, in advocating a
more "rational" gambling experience. That is why I think it is
important that you fully undestand the application of probability
theory to gambling situations. I would hope that there would be
someone at the LVA office who can help you if these explantions are
still unclear, perhaps you could contact someone at UNLV for
assistance.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jaydavidson118" <jaydavidson118@y...>
wrote:

I think people are getting confused by the mechanics of match-play in
evaluating their value. The effective value of a match play coupon is
the same whether you use it as currently required place a $5 bet with
a $5 mathplay coupon on top if win win=$10 lose =0 OR if you could
place the matchplay coupon on the spot next to your bet and played
two separate hands (a $5 bet on both spots). What would you expect
the return to be on this matchplay spot to be now, over the long run?
The answer is the expected return of the game 99%, which is the same
in both situations.

Again, you are making the same mistake. If you bet 100 matchplay
coupons one at a time, on 50 hands you lose and they take the coupon
away. The other 50 times, they give you $5 back plus a void
matchplay coupon (only good for one play). Therefore, the 100
matchplay coupons with a $5 face value bet one a time return 50 times
$5 or $250 (50% of the face value). What you are missing is they
don't give you $10 in cash if you win but $5 and a now worthless
coupon.

Keith

Put another way, assuming I could just bet the coupons with no money
out of my pocket. You approach me with a stack of 100 $5 coupons.
How much should I be willing to pay you for them? Since playing them
will on average result in $250 in my pocket, that would be the value
I would apply a discount to when deciding how much to pay you.

Keith

If you give someone 100 $5 coupons and let them play a game with an
house advantage of less than 1% the Expected Value of those coupons
is: .99 x $500.

Think of it this way if I said to you I have a 9/6 JOB machine here
with $500 in credits on it how much would be willing to pay for that
machine, I would hope more than $250...it is certainly worth more
than $250 (like maybe .9954 x $500) Get it.

Put another way, assuming I could just bet the coupons with no

money

out of my pocket. You approach me with a stack of 100 $5 coupons.
How much should I be willing to pay you for them? Since playing

them

will on average result in $250 in my pocket, that would be the

value

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kls6792" <klsechler@a...> wrote:

I would apply a discount to when deciding how much to pay you.

Keith

Put another way, assuming I could just bet the coupons with no

money

out of my pocket. You approach me with a stack of 100 $5 coupons.
How much should I be willing to pay you for them? Since playing

them

will on average result in $250 in my pocket, that would be the

value

I would apply a discount to when deciding how much to pay you.

Keith

It's a good way of stating it. Even those of us who are a bit math
challenged (and I consider myself among them) have some consumer and
business survival skills. When put this way the argument seems
commonsensical.

Chandler

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kls6792" <klsechler@a...> wrote: