Brian, what is the expected return on playing blackjack over an
extended period of play, using basic strategy and fair blackjack
table rules...greater than 99% (less than 1% house advantage) On a
single hand of blackjack you will either win or lose (let's ignore
surrender and black jacks for now) Does that make the expected return
of blackjack 50% I don't think so!
Let's extend your faulty reasoning to video poker on a single play
dollar machine with max. coin the most I could lose on a single bet
is $5 but I could win $4000 maybe $800, $250, $45...(on a 99% video
poker game you will never get a 99% return on a single bet, but yet
people on this forum understand that over the long run if you play
properly your return will approach the expected return) boy that
looks like a great game the distribution of possible returns is very
positively skewed...that is until you add probabilitities into the
mix and calculate expected return...and that is what you must do when
you evaluating matchplay even if you are only playing one coupon that
day.
For people who take their video poker somewhat seriously, this is a
very important concept to understand. Read my whole prior posting, I
thought it was clear.
One more shot at explanation. If you play a progesssive machine,
where the basic game return is 99%, but say the machine has a very
high progressive making it a 102%, now if you play that machine and
don't hit the royal the progressive was a waste of time...why bother
with these progressives..but let's say you only play this machine
when it is over 100%...sooner or later you will hit a royal and get
the progressive, then to you this machine is a over 100% machine to
someone who plays it only once when it is over 100% and doesn't hit
the prog. it is reall a 99% or techically a 97% machine. Your 50/50
resoning is like the one shot player...I assume people on this forum
are not one shot players!
Faulty reasoning? I don't think so. At least not on Jean's part!
Bet on the toss of a fair coin. Win once, lose once. On each toss,
$5 of
your own money bet plus a $5 matchplay coupon. Win $10, lose $5.
Profit, $5 for
the two matchplay bets. Value of each matchplay is 1/2 face value,
or $2.50.
This is for a 100% return game. A small adjustment downward should
be made
for "real" casino even money bets, as Jean said.
Brian
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In a message dated 11/23/2004 1:05:46 AM Pacific Standard Time,
jaydavidson118@y... writes:
Jean, unfortunately this is faulty reasoning. A $5 matchplay
coupon
is worth $5 x (the expected value of the game you are playing)
what
you are saying, that the match-play is worth about 1/2 face value
would be true only if you were playing a game with an expected
loss
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, bjaygold@a... wrote:
of 50%...I don't think even Harrahs has games that bad.
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