jaydavidson118 wrote:
Does the fact that I have won substantial financial rewards in math
competitions (four year tuition scholarship based solely on
mathematical prowess) change your mind to at least Think about what I
am writing? I guess the point I am trying to make is a little more
subtle than I thought.
Then later:
On the type of match-play I was talking about, bet $5 own money with
$5 match play coupon, the casino is in effect ginving you $5 of "free
money" with which to bet. To determine the expected value of that
coupon you must multiply the ev of the chosen game times the face
amount of the coupon. Now your experience on a single bet will not
match this value, however, over many years of using these coupons
your experience will approach this value. This value for blackjack is
approx. 99% of face value.Besides the mechanics of having to put up $5 of your own money to
play a match-play the casino's coupon is still the same as any other
$5 bet. You are effectively placing two simultaneous $5 bets, the
expected return does not change when the amount of money changes,
a$25 per hand player faces the same house advantage as a $100 per
hand player.
Jay, you're overlooking the fact that no matter whether you win or lose the bet, you LOSE the "free money" (the match play coupon), so those two"simultaneous $5 bets" are not equal.
Here's another way of looking at it. To keep it simple, let's stick with an honest 50-50 proposition with an even-money payoff.
Without the coupon you have a 50% chance of losing $5.00 and a 50% chance of winning $5.00 for an expected value of 0.5 x (-$5.00) + 0.5 x $5.00 = $0.00 (zero).
With a $5.00 match play coupon, you have a 50% chance of losing $5.00 and a 50% chance of winning $10.00 for an expected value is 0.5 x (-$5.00) + 0.5 x $10.00 = $2.50. Win or lose, the coupon is now gone, so it has an EV of $2.50, or half of it's face value.
If you're playing blackjack at 99% expected return, then the EV of the coupon is 99% of 50% of its face value, so a $5.00 match play coupon would be worth $2.475.
My degree is in electrical engineering, not math. What I've learned of probability and statistics is mostly self-taught over about 35 years of analyzing games of chance. Without that first-hand understanding and application of the math, I would not have been able to develop Optimum Video Poker.
Dan
ยทยทยท
At 1:29 AM +0000 11/24/04, vpFREE@yahoogroups.com wrote:
--
Dan Paymar
Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor/Publisher of VP newsletter "Video Poker Times"
Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com
"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur