Mark Pilarski (a friend) Video Poker info

[Terrence_Murphy]

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

May 30, 2008

Dear Mark: As a video poker player, what should my beginning bankroll
be? I typically play $1 machines. Norm N.

In the gaming business it's called "risk of ruin." The risk of ruin
is the chance that standard deviation will wipe out your bankroll
before you have a chance to win what your pre-determined win goals
were. What you need in order to weather risk of ruin is a decent
sized bankroll. If your bankroll is too small to handle the swings
caused by standard deviation, you can get your clock cleaned.

Video poker players should have an adequate bankroll of at least 40
times their typical bet, if not more. With an adequate bankroll, you
can last through a cold streak and still be in action when a hot
streak comes along.

So, Norm, on a dollar machine, you should have a bankroll of at least
$200 (five coins in per hand times 40).
Dear Mark: What are your thoughts on players who like to believe that
one video poker machine that they regularly play is luckier than
another? Every time my sister and I go to the casino she runs to one
particular machine that she claims pays out more. June D.

It doesn't make one iota of difference whether she always plays
her "favorite" video poker machine or bounces around. As long as the
paytables are the same, she can expect the same long-term payback.

What I can't rule out, is that your sister accidentally happened on a
video poker machine that has a much better paytable than the other
machines surrounding it, so yes, June, it would pay out more.

I once had a favorite video poker machine at the Club Cal Neva in
Reno that I would play after pitching cardboard for eight hours. It
was a bar-top, so along with my after-shifter, I figured it was
worthy of a couple of bucks before I headed up to the lake (Tahoe). I
hit a royal and a dozen four-of-a-kinds over the year that I worked
there, and I'm sure I cashed out more than I put in. But deep down I
knew, or would like to think that I should have known, that the
probabilities of royals or four-of-a-kinds appearing remain the same
on all the machines, on every hand.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: All losers praise their own systems. VP
Pappy, Midwest Casino Guide

···

------------------------------------------------------------
You can email Mark at pilarski@markpilarski.com
-----------------------------------------------------------
This e-mail was brought to you by Charleston Communications.

When you can't be in Las Vegas be at OpenVegas
The First Las Vegas Social Network - We Never Close!

[John_Nitrox]

My wife and I play twenty-five cent FPDW and given the return and variance we've decided
$5000 is the right bankroll size for an extended trip to Las Vegas. I don't know how high
the expected value is on the game you are playing or what the variance is, but I'd certainly
like to see your work and learn more about it. Bon chance!

DPTNST,

John

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Terrence Murphy" <tismurph@...> wrote:

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

May 30, 2008

Dear Mark: As a video poker player, what should my beginning bankroll
be? I typically play $1 machines. Norm N.

In the gaming business it's called "risk of ruin." The risk of ruin
is the chance that standard deviation will wipe out your bankroll
before you have a chance to win what your pre-determined win goals
were. What you need in order to weather risk of ruin is a decent
sized bankroll. If your bankroll is too small to handle the swings
caused by standard deviation, you can get your clock cleaned.

Video poker players should have an adequate bankroll of at least 40
times their typical bet, if not more. With an adequate bankroll, you
can last through a cold streak and still be in action when a hot
streak comes along.

So, Norm, on a dollar machine, you should have a bankroll of at least
$200 (five coins in per hand times 40).
Dear Mark: What are your thoughts on players who like to believe that
one video poker machine that they regularly play is luckier than
another? Every time my sister and I go to the casino she runs to one
particular machine that she claims pays out more. June D.

It doesn't make one iota of difference whether she always plays
her "favorite" video poker machine or bounces around. As long as the
paytables are the same, she can expect the same long-term payback.

What I can't rule out, is that your sister accidentally happened on a
video poker machine that has a much better paytable than the other
machines surrounding it, so yes, June, it would pay out more.

I once had a favorite video poker machine at the Club Cal Neva in
Reno that I would play after pitching cardboard for eight hours. It
was a bar-top, so along with my after-shifter, I figured it was
worthy of a couple of bucks before I headed up to the lake (Tahoe). I
hit a royal and a dozen four-of-a-kinds over the year that I worked
there, and I'm sure I cashed out more than I put in. But deep down I
knew, or would like to think that I should have known, that the
probabilities of royals or four-of-a-kinds appearing remain the same
on all the machines, on every hand.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: All losers praise their own systems. VP
Pappy, Midwest Casino Guide
------------------------------------------------------------
You can email Mark at pilarski@...
-----------------------------------------------------------
This e-mail was brought to you by Charleston Communications.

When you can't be in Las Vegas be at OpenVegas
The First Las Vegas Social Network - We Never Close!

[Terrence_Murphy]

I look at playing a particular video poker game this way: If I play,
say for instance, Pick'Em for dollars, I'll put in $600 and play
until that's gone or until I make a couple hundred profit. I figure
that after I lose that much, not even a quad can get me back to even.
As for the ST-FL and the RF, it's the stuff of dreams and I never
expect to get one. (although I have had five royals--one on dollars--
playing Pick'Em over the years.)

If I play a non-progressive 9/6 JB machine, I'll only risk $125
because not even a quad will get me back to even on that game. Deuces
Wild the same thing, $125. (the wild royal is $125) The four deuces
is something I don't expect to hit, so I don't figure it in when I
play. If I hit it, it's a bonus. I'm looking for a $100 or more
profit for the day. If I get it, I leave and do other things with my
very valuable time. And trust me, time is valuable and in short
supply at my age.

"Nobody loves life like him that's growing old."
--Sophocles, Acrisius

At Greektown Casino, here in the Detroit area where I normally play,
I usually play just for quarters, more for the entertainment than the
money, but if the casino is running a double or triple points day or
some other kind of offer, I'll play for dollars. I will then bring at
least $850 ($600 for P'E, $125 FOR 9/6 JB, and $125 for NSUD Deuces)
I'll either get ahead and leave, or lose the $850 if I'm very
unlucky, which is my limit for the day. I've been doing this for
about twenty years now and it works for me.

Terrence "VP Pappy" Murphy

"I look at gambling as losing touch with reality for a short while
and getting a small sense of what mental illness must feel like."
--VP Pappy

···

__________________________________________________

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnitrox32" <johndive@...> wrote:

My wife and I play twenty-five cent FPDW and given the return and

variance we've decided

$5000 is the right bankroll size for an extended trip to Las

Vegas. I don't know how high

the expected value is on the game you are playing or what the

variance is, but I'd certainly

like to see your work and learn more about it. Bon chance!

DPTNST,

John
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Terrence Murphy" <tismurph@> wrote:
>
> Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski
>
> May 30, 2008
>
>
> Dear Mark: As a video poker player, what should my beginning

bankroll

> be? I typically play $1 machines. Norm N.
>
> In the gaming business it's called "risk of ruin." The risk of

ruin

> is the chance that standard deviation will wipe out your bankroll
> before you have a chance to win what your pre-determined win

goals

> were. What you need in order to weather risk of ruin is a decent
> sized bankroll. If your bankroll is too small to handle the

swings

> caused by standard deviation, you can get your clock cleaned.
>
> Video poker players should have an adequate bankroll of at least

40

> times their typical bet, if not more. With an adequate bankroll,

you

> can last through a cold streak and still be in action when a hot
> streak comes along.
>
> So, Norm, on a dollar machine, you should have a bankroll of at

least

> $200 (five coins in per hand times 40).
> Dear Mark: What are your thoughts on players who like to believe

that

> one video poker machine that they regularly play is luckier than
> another? Every time my sister and I go to the casino she runs to

one

> particular machine that she claims pays out more. June D.
>
> It doesn't make one iota of difference whether she always plays
> her "favorite" video poker machine or bounces around. As long as

the

> paytables are the same, she can expect the same long-term payback.
>
> What I can't rule out, is that your sister accidentally happened

on a

> video poker machine that has a much better paytable than the

other

> machines surrounding it, so yes, June, it would pay out more.
>
> I once had a favorite video poker machine at the Club Cal Neva in
> Reno that I would play after pitching cardboard for eight hours.

It

> was a bar-top, so along with my after-shifter, I figured it was
> worthy of a couple of bucks before I headed up to the lake

(Tahoe). I

> hit a royal and a dozen four-of-a-kinds over the year that I

worked

> there, and I'm sure I cashed out more than I put in. But deep

down I

> knew, or would like to think that I should have known, that the
> probabilities of royals or four-of-a-kinds appearing remain the

same

> on all the machines, on every hand.
>
> Gambling Wisdom of the Week: All losers praise their own systems.

VP

> Pappy, Midwest Casino Guide
> ------------------------------------------------------------
> You can email Mark at pilarski@
> -----------------------------------------------------------
> This e-mail was brought to you by Charleston Communications.
>
> When you can't be in Las Vegas be at OpenVegas
> The First Las Vegas Social Network - We Never Close!
>