I do not play nearly as much as you guys and it will be less still as I start full time work tomorrow for the first time in 19-1/2 months.
The last month has been about $400 negative for me on that bank but I am still about $2800 ahead on that bank without a royal. (Since I am only a little over $1000 ahead this year on all games (I play some tables as well.) + about $700 in coupons, I am not too unhappy. The feed rate of the progressive on that bank is exactly 0.25% (Every fourth $ credit adds one cent to the meter.) The last half of June was great for me at the Majestic Star. Two royals each in the first ten minutes on the five play quarter super aces on 6/17 and 6/20. On 6/24 I needed about twenty minutes to land a set of aces on that game. Also on 6/24 I was asking the 25c Multi-Strike for help on the third line with a deuce in DB2's. The three other deuces got me up to the top in style!
As tooncesthecatwhocoulddriveacar very correctly states, the results can be affected by variance. The three best games on that bank also are three of the most volatile you can find. 180-80 One Eyed Jacks Wild, 25-12 Double Bonus Deuces and 9-5 Triple Pay Plus. Also note that these machines were giving 0.2% instead of the 0.1% cashback that the other VP gives. That means that all three of these games are theoretically positive at any progressive. Note that at the base progressive, OEJW has the shortest
RF cycle at a little less often than once every 38,000 hands.
···
----- Original Message -----
From: tooncesthecatwhocoulddriveacar
To: vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com
Sent: 7/29/2004 12:11:39 PM
Subject: [vpFREE_Chicago] Re: Majestic Don & Mike's bartop progressive
Relax. IGT machines cannot be altered to produce a non-random
result, regardless of the state the machines are physically in. If
IGT machines were somehow alterable they would lose their Nevada
gaming license and IGT has a majority market share of all video
machines in Nevada.
Some much more likely explanations:
1) A sample of poker hands smaller than 500,000 hands (700 hours of
single line poker) is going to have a ton of variance, and your
results won't be something useful.
2) Selective sampling. Looking at your results and picking your
worse time period, of course you will find bad results. I mean
looking at my gaming record, I found that on Tuesdays, I am only
getting back an 85% return. Must that mean that the machines are
being altered on Tuesdays?
3) Asking people whether they've had good or bad sessions lately is
notoriously unreliable.
4) There's a real easy way to see how long it's been since the
jackpot's been hit. Look at the size of the progressive. Assuming a
0.2% meter and that 10% of play is less than max coin, the average
that the progressive should be at when it is hit is about $4500, with
outliers of $5500 to $6000.
--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, robert tryjefaczka
<bobtry2000@y...> wrote:
I was having the same problem throughout the casino. Have stopped
playing there a couple of months ago. Playing at Trumps and doing
alright. Tried contacting the Indiana
Gaming Commision twice as to any rules concerning randomness for
video poker. Have not received any reply.
vp_nbi <nbi@w...> wrote:
Has anyone won anything during the month of July on a bartop?I've been conducting an informal poll of the few people I see
playing
when I'm up there. The story I get is a frequent repeat: "I used to
do
ok on these machines especially during the first month of operation,
but this month I can't hit a thing". This from people playing
different games on different machines. In fact I think the jackpot
has
been hit only once this month. I only play the best games on the
bartop and only after much preparation. I can't understand why my
results this month have been much worse than previously when I only
had my self derived strategy (which was only slightly worse than the
correct simplified strategy for OEJ) as I've been working very hard
the last 2 months to improve my skills. When I add up all these
pieces
of information a very disturbing pattern emerges: the bartop games
definitely were within normal parameters for the first month, but
this
month frequencies of winning hands have been squelched across the
board. While I wouldn't like it the news of me being the only loser
for the month wouldn't perturb me too much as dry spells are
expected.
However when hearing the same account from everyone it begins to
raise
suspicions. Other than the 1 person that hit a jackpot this month
does
anyone have results that disagree with the reported pattern (of
being
ok during 1st month, but bad since and especially bad in July)?
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