vpFREE2 Forums

Majestic Don & Mike's bartop progressive

#1

Has anyone won anything during the month of July on a bartop?

I've been conducting an informal poll of the few people I see playing
when I'm up there. The story I get is a frequent repeat: "I used to do
ok on these machines especially during the first month of operation,
but this month I can't hit a thing". This from people playing
different games on different machines. In fact I think the jackpot has
been hit only once this month. I only play the best games on the
bartop and only after much preparation. I can't understand why my
results this month have been much worse than previously when I only
had my self derived strategy (which was only slightly worse than the
correct simplified strategy for OEJ) as I've been working very hard
the last 2 months to improve my skills. When I add up all these pieces
of information a very disturbing pattern emerges: the bartop games
definitely were within normal parameters for the first month, but this
month frequencies of winning hands have been squelched across the
board. While I wouldn't like it the news of me being the only loser
for the month wouldn't perturb me too much as dry spells are expected.
However when hearing the same account from everyone it begins to raise
suspicions. Other than the 1 person that hit a jackpot this month does
anyone have results that disagree with the reported pattern (of being
ok during 1st month, but bad since and especially bad in July)?

#2

I was having the same problem throughout the casino. Have stopped playing there a couple of months ago. Playing at Trumps and doing alright. Tried contacting the Indiana
Gaming Commision twice as to any rules concerning randomness for video poker. Have not received any reply.

···

vp_nbi <nbi@wideopenwest.com> wrote:
Has anyone won anything during the month of July on a bartop?

I've been conducting an informal poll of the few people I see playing
when I'm up there. The story I get is a frequent repeat: "I used to do
ok on these machines especially during the first month of operation,
but this month I can't hit a thing". This from people playing
different games on different machines. In fact I think the jackpot has
been hit only once this month. I only play the best games on the
bartop and only after much preparation. I can't understand why my
results this month have been much worse than previously when I only
had my self derived strategy (which was only slightly worse than the
correct simplified strategy for OEJ) as I've been working very hard
the last 2 months to improve my skills. When I add up all these pieces
of information a very disturbing pattern emerges: the bartop games
definitely were within normal parameters for the first month, but this
month frequencies of winning hands have been squelched across the
board. While I wouldn't like it the news of me being the only loser
for the month wouldn't perturb me too much as dry spells are expected.
However when hearing the same account from everyone it begins to raise
suspicions. Other than the 1 person that hit a jackpot this month does
anyone have results that disagree with the reported pattern (of being
ok during 1st month, but bad since and especially bad in July)?

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#3

Relax. IGT machines cannot be altered to produce a non-random
result, regardless of the state the machines are physically in. If
IGT machines were somehow alterable they would lose their Nevada
gaming license and IGT has a majority market share of all video
machines in Nevada.

Some much more likely explanations:

1) A sample of poker hands smaller than 500,000 hands (700 hours of
single line poker) is going to have a ton of variance, and your
results won't be something useful.

2) Selective sampling. Looking at your results and picking your
worse time period, of course you will find bad results. I mean
looking at my gaming record, I found that on Tuesdays, I am only
getting back an 85% return. Must that mean that the machines are
being altered on Tuesdays?

3) Asking people whether they've had good or bad sessions lately is
notoriously unreliable.

4) There's a real easy way to see how long it's been since the
jackpot's been hit. Look at the size of the progressive. Assuming a
0.2% meter and that 10% of play is less than max coin, the average
that the progressive should be at when it is hit is about $4500, with
outliers of $5500 to $6000.

--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, robert tryjefaczka
<bobtry2000@y...> wrote:

I was having the same problem throughout the casino. Have stopped

playing there a couple of months ago. Playing at Trumps and doing
alright. Tried contacting the Indiana

Gaming Commision twice as to any rules concerning randomness for

video poker. Have not received any reply.

vp_nbi <nbi@w...> wrote:
Has anyone won anything during the month of July on a bartop?

I've been conducting an informal poll of the few people I see

playing

when I'm up there. The story I get is a frequent repeat: "I used to

do

ok on these machines especially during the first month of operation,
but this month I can't hit a thing". This from people playing
different games on different machines. In fact I think the jackpot

has

been hit only once this month. I only play the best games on the
bartop and only after much preparation. I can't understand why my
results this month have been much worse than previously when I only
had my self derived strategy (which was only slightly worse than the
correct simplified strategy for OEJ) as I've been working very hard
the last 2 months to improve my skills. When I add up all these

pieces

of information a very disturbing pattern emerges: the bartop games
definitely were within normal parameters for the first month, but

this

month frequencies of winning hands have been squelched across the
board. While I wouldn't like it the news of me being the only loser
for the month wouldn't perturb me too much as dry spells are

expected.

However when hearing the same account from everyone it begins to

raise

suspicions. Other than the 1 person that hit a jackpot this month

does

anyone have results that disagree with the reported pattern (of

being

···

ok during 1st month, but bad since and especially bad in July)?

#4

--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com,
"tooncesthecatwhocoulddriveacar" <tooncestdc@y...> wrote:

Relax. IGT machines cannot be altered to produce a non-random
result, regardless of the state the machines are physically in. If
IGT machines were somehow alterable they would lose their Nevada
gaming license and IGT has a majority market share of all video
machines in Nevada.

Creating a pseudo-random generator is not at all difficult. If the
manufacturer knows in advance the exact testing methodology of the
gaming board lab they could devise a generator that passes their tests
while yet not being truly random. Supposedly the lab now inspects the
source code from which the vp firmware is generated, but we don't know
for a fact when that practice was adopted and to which IGT models it
applies. What makes you think IGT video poker machines are
unalterable? Ever hear of American Coin? Video Poker machines still
use EEPROMs for storage of the executable code. While somewhat
resource consumptive hacking an EEPROM is not beyond the realm of
possibility. But I'm not even suggesting anything of the sort may have
transpired. It's obvious that casinos like machines that generate
money. I don't think manufacturers need to be told that and it follows
that if they could get away with shipping non-random machines they
most likely would. The argument that because IGT is big and has so
much at stake they must be beyond reproach simply doesn't wash. Some
of the biggest companies in the world engage in shenanigans precisely
because they do have much at stake. Need an example? How about
Microsoft? The IGT president's comments regarding the "near miss"
controversy involving their slot products certainly didn't inspire any
trust. IGT's machines could in fact be 100% legit. I simply have not
been assured beyond the shadow of a doubt that this is so. "Trust, but
verify" seems like a reasonable approach.

Some much more likely explanations:

1) A sample of poker hands smaller than 500,000 hands (700 hours of
single line poker) is going to have a ton of variance, and your
results won't be something useful.

Granted, the sample size may yet be too small. I say "yet" because the
American Coin scandal came to light via locals playing the same
machines for a statistically significant number of cycles. I don't
mean to suggest that anything nepharious is actually going on, I'm
just saying that it doesn't hurt to keep our eyes open for anything
truly unusual.

2) Selective sampling. Looking at your results and picking your
worse time period, of course you will find bad results. I mean
looking at my gaming record, I found that on Tuesdays, I am only
getting back an 85% return. Must that mean that the machines are
being altered on Tuesdays?

That's a reductio ad absurdum that isn't applicable. This thread has
been about a result interval of 1 month. Selectivity doesn't enter
into it unless there are many months of results to choose from. For
people who are playing for most of the day several days a week, a
month constitutes a large enough interval so that a consistent
behavior for the entire month is something noteworthy even if not yet
statistically conclusive. When the aggregate is considered though this
becomes much more substantive. What is particularly striking is that
nobody seems to have been on a roll for the month and that everyone
seems to be having their bad luck at the same time. That can be
plausible in the extreme short term but not indefinitely.

3) Asking people whether they've had good or bad sessions lately is
notoriously unreliable.

Not "lately", but for the entire month. And yes, I'm aware of the
reliability issues regarding such reports. Nevertheless the reports
create a pattern. We'll have to see if it persists and repeats.

4) There's a real easy way to see how long it's been since the
jackpot's been hit. Look at the size of the progressive. Assuming a
0.2% meter and that 10% of play is less than max coin, the average
that the progressive should be at when it is hit is about $4500, with
outliers of $5500 to $6000.

By your definition of outlier we are at one right now. And the
previous jackpot when hit was an outlier as it topped $6k.

···

--- In vpFREE_Chicago@yahoogroups.com, robert tryjefaczka
<bobtry2000@y...> wrote:
> I was having the same problem throughout the casino. Have stopped
playing there a couple of months ago. Playing at Trumps and doing
alright. Tried contacting the Indiana
> Gaming Commision twice as to any rules concerning randomness for
video poker. Have not received any reply.
>
> vp_nbi <nbi@w...> wrote:
> Has anyone won anything during the month of July on a bartop?
>
> I've been conducting an informal poll of the few people I see
playing
> when I'm up there. The story I get is a frequent repeat: "I used to
do
> ok on these machines especially during the first month of operation,
> but this month I can't hit a thing". This from people playing
> different games on different machines. In fact I think the jackpot
has
> been hit only once this month. I only play the best games on the
> bartop and only after much preparation. I can't understand why my
> results this month have been much worse than previously when I only
> had my self derived strategy (which was only slightly worse than the
> correct simplified strategy for OEJ) as I've been working very hard
> the last 2 months to improve my skills. When I add up all these
pieces
> of information a very disturbing pattern emerges: the bartop games
> definitely were within normal parameters for the first month, but
this
> month frequencies of winning hands have been squelched across the
> board. While I wouldn't like it the news of me being the only loser
> for the month wouldn't perturb me too much as dry spells are
expected.
> However when hearing the same account from everyone it begins to
raise
> suspicions. Other than the 1 person that hit a jackpot this month
does
> anyone have results that disagree with the reported pattern (of
being
> ok during 1st month, but bad since and especially bad in July)?
>
>