Luck

[futrend]

I think Rockofjello333's explanation of luck was on target. He
said more on the subject than I would ever expect necessary. It
seems obvious the words lucky or unlucky should be used to describe
some after the fact "randomness". To me those words are nothing more
than a simle descriptive label, not a phenomenon or scientific law.
   Having said that, how many minimum hands need to be played to put
much meaning into the concept of ER of a particular game? I
understand that ER is real and meaningful from the first hand played
in a game. However, what I am trying to ask is what minimum number
of hands are necessary to say (after the fact) that the results were
similar to what was expected because of the ER. If I play 600-700
hands an hour for 5 or 6 hours (assume for this example perfect
play), what explanation would be given for my final results. Would
one say the results were expected because of the ER of the VP game
played, or should simply say the results were lucky or unlucky. Very
lucky or very unlucky if extreme. Again using those terms just as a
label to describe the now known fact of randomness for this one event.
  I especially appreciated Stuart's explanation of positive
expectation. Couldn't his example have been broaden even more for a
recreational player. How many hands in one session must a
professional play in order to explain the results in terms of
positive expectation, rather than simply labeling them as either
lucky or unlucky. What are the minimun number of hands a
professional player needs to play in order for him to describe his
session as not recreational?

Thanks,
Bob

[vpFREE4]

From the FAQ:

7. What is the long term? - Theoretically speaking, the long
term is forever. For video poker purposes, the long term is
when you have played a lot of hands (several million at a
minimum) and actual results are about the same as expected
results. Tom Ski calculates (with a 95% confidence factor)
that the actual results for 10/7 DB, played with perfect
strategy, should be within 1.0% of expected results after
1,085,465 hands, and within 0.1% after 108,546,482 hands.

···

On 15 Oct 2004 at 11:36, futrend wrote:

However, what I am trying to ask is what minimum number
of hands are necessary to say (after the fact) that the results were
similar to what was expected because of the ER.

[jim_becker]

If you have WinPoker, you can use it to 'test' a game and autoplay X
amount of hands, I will reset the coins and the overall play, then let
it autoplay 2000 hand (3 or so hours) and record the win/loss, then
repeat that many many times, you will see the kind of variance you can
expect out of that game and see somewhat of a picture of what kind of
session bankroll you will need, very usefull I believe. As far as
your question as to when will the lucky/unlucky not come into play, I
believe you would be talking millions of hands, personally this year
my wife and I have played about 400,000 to 500,000 hands and we have
had very good runs and also very bad runs, but thankfully we have done
well and hit more royals then the hand count says we should have, so
the reverse is that someone (maybe us later) is doing the opposite,
which doesnt mean we are playing better, just happening to be hitting
the good pots.

Hope that helps
Jim

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "futrend" <futrend@y...> wrote:

   I think Rockofjello333's explanation of luck was on target. He
said more on the subject than I would ever expect necessary. It
seems obvious the words lucky or unlucky should be used to describe
some after the fact "randomness". To me those words are nothing more
than a simle descriptive label, not a phenomenon or scientific law.
   Having said that, how many minimum hands need to be played to put
much meaning into the concept of ER of a particular game? I
understand that ER is real and meaningful from the first hand played
in a game. However, what I am trying to ask is what minimum number
of hands are necessary to say (after the fact) that the results were
similar to what was expected because of the ER. If I play 600-700
hands an hour for 5 or 6 hours (assume for this example perfect
play), what explanation would be given for my final results. Would
one say the results were expected because of the ER of the VP game
played, or should simply say the results were lucky or unlucky. Very
lucky or very unlucky if extreme. Again using those terms just as a
label to describe the now known fact of randomness for this one event.
  I especially appreciated Stuart's explanation of positive
expectation. Couldn't his example have been broaden even more for a
recreational player. How many hands in one session must a
professional play in order to explain the results in terms of
positive expectation, rather than simply labeling them as either
lucky or unlucky. What are the minimun number of hands a
professional player needs to play in order for him to describe his
session as not recreational?

Thanks,
Bob