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Concerning your "serious advantage player" question -- Jean Scott's
comments are absolutely authoritative on this subject given her
extensive play experience. Her statement reflects that the most
serious of players strive for vp play that is well within their
physical and, as Jean puts it, psychological bankrolls. (They might,
however, occasionally overstetch in approaching a new play and
subsequently back off - or take a "pot shot" from time to time.)
However, I suspect most players (I include myself among them) are
tempted to take on play that represents a risk of ruin (ROR)
considerably beyond what they'll comfortably tolerate over the long
term. The comp and promotional benefits are extremely tempting.
There is a frequently cited "bankroll requirement" for play of 4-6
royals (I've seen this attributed to Bob Dancer - not sure if that's
accurate). Behind every bankroll statement is an assumption about
game return and risk. The "4-6 royal" measure represents a long-term
risk of under 5% for a game with fairly high return and low variance
-- FPDW w/ .25% cb (about 1% advantage) is a prime example.
However, the plays available to players at denominations above $.25 or
on multiplays typically are at far more modest returns and a 5% ROR
bankroll requirement is considerably higher.
I cite "5% ROR" because I consider that the greatest risk at which a
prudent player would push their play. Granted, this is a "long term"
risk. Many will say that they're comfortable with a 1 in 20 risk that
they'll bust over the course of play during their lives. However,
because anyone who successfully hangs in for the long haul will
realize decent growth in their bankroll from decently positive play,
those who bust will do so in the SHORT-TERM. The most prudent of
players will strive to keep their ROR reigned in to no more than 2%,
where occasional loss streaks may take them higher temporarily.
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A gaming mathematician named Cindy Liu developed a video poker
analyzer that provides an excellent assessment of game risk and
bankroll requirements. It can be found at:
http://www.gamblingtools.net/vp/vpanalyzer.html
It calculates ROR for a given bankroll when playing a game under
stated cashback assumptions (you'd also include available promotional
cash - added as a percentage of the related trip coin-in). It also
calculates the bankroll representing a given ROR.
A few notes about use:
The calculator is Java based. It's necessary to enable Java in your
browser if not already enabled (it's disabled in some cases to ensure
the strongest precaution against viruses, etc. - however a strong
virus tool should provide the necessary safeguard).
The calculator is limited to a few basic game "templates" (e.g. DW,
JB, etc.) Games with paytables that don't conform to those included
in the calculator, e.g. DDB, can't be analyzed.
To analyze a game, you first select the game type. A default paytable
will appear -- modify it as necessary and then click on "Calculate" to
determine game return and variance.
Next, enter cashback as a decimal number, not a percent. CB of .25%
would be entered as .0025. If you typically receive some type of
bonus in addition to CB, add that. For example, if you redeem $25 of
additional cash on an average of $16K trip play, you would add .00156
or a total of .00406.
You can now calculate your bankroll requirement for a given ROR or,
alternatively, the ROR for a stated bankroll. Enter the known amount
and click the appropriate button to calculate the unknown variable.
The bankroll should be input as number of bets when determining ROR
(and will be calculated in those terms when providing a ROR). For
example, if you're playing $.25 vp with a bankroll of $5000, the
bankroll input would be 4000 bets (a $1000 royal is 800 bets). For $1
vp with a bankroll of $15000, the bankroll would stated as 3000 bets.
As an example, 10/7 DB w/ .2% cb and .15% bonus (.35% total), has a 5%
ROR bankroll requirement of 7687 bets, or a little under 10 royals.
The 2% ROR is 10038 bets - about 12.5 royals.
Jazbo's website (with some interpretation) can be used to augment this
information to calculate multiplay bankroll and ROR.
- Harry