vpFREE2 Forums

Losing Streak

In a message dated 5/26/2005 12:52:42 AM Eastern Standard Time,
QueenofComps@frugalgambler.biz writes:

Without cashback or other benefits, you need more like $8000 to play FPDW to
be fairly certain not to go broke. And there is never a 100% guarantee.

I don't do a lot of couponing though I do collect my cashback at Rampart
(when I'm not changing it into meals or other goodies). Still I think (and it
wasn't FPDW but rather mainly 10-7 DB and some just under 100 percent games) I
was darned close to or over that $3000 mark.

Karen

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

<<I don't do a lot of couponing though I do collect my cashback at Rampart
(when I'm not changing it into meals or other goodies). Still I think (and it
wasn't FPDW but rather mainly 10-7 DB and some just under 100 percent games) I was darned close to or over that $3000 mark.>>

I'm sorry, Karen, but you have just answered your own question. Most people don't play 10/7 DB accurately enough to get it over 100% and with any negative game there is no bankroll big enough to expect to not go broke eventually. The bankroll for quarter 10/7 DB, played perfectly, but with no CB, is - if I remember correctly - about $30,000 for a 5% ROR (risk of ruin) and about $46,00 for a 1% ROR.

I just found some notes on Tomski's ROR figures. If you add .2% CB, those figures go down to $13,683 and $21,035. Add .4% CB and they are $8725 and $13,413. Add .6% and they are $6,336 and $9,741. Remember this is for QUARTERS!!!! If you want some scary figures, multiple these numbers by 4 if you play $1 10/7!!

I'm afraid too many players think if they are play a 100% game they are safe from going broke. I can't emphasize enough - you need more than an even game. The smaller the edge the bigger the bankroll you need. And even these lower figures, you still have a 1% change of going broke. Remember, bankroll requirements mean you can lose that much money (or more) even playing perfectly!!!!!

I don't want to discourage anyone - but encourage you to look for plays with a better edge!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

···

________________________________________
Jean $�ott - http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
  for VP software and strategy cards.
  NEW - Blackjack Strategy Cards +
              Updated Second Edition of
             "The Frugal Gambler."

krallison416 wrote:

I don't do a lot of couponing though I do collect my cashback at
Rampart (when I'm not changing it into meals or other goodies).
Still I think (and it wasn't FPDW but rather mainly 10-7 DB and some
just under 100 percent games) I was darned close to or over that
$3000 mark.

Speaking in very general terms, playing vp with a .4% edge (incl cb,
but reduced for error cost) will beg a bankroll of 5x-7x the RF pay
for comfortable play (assuming that game variance isn't much higher
than that of DB ... allow for more for DDB and other rocky rides).

Playing a near-breakeven game (say 100.05%, w/ cb less errors) is a
recipe for heart break unless playing on a VERY large bankroll. Since
play itself isn't expected to produce a sizable cushion against
inevitable painful downturns with high probability, it's necessary
that you go into play with one. Pulling a number out of my a**, I'd
suggest a 20x RF bankroll might be sufficient over the medium term.

Playing a negative game, say 9/7 DB w/ modest cb, will be expected to
drain any bankroll over time.

Strong occasional cash promotions are a critical aspect of a favorable
vp career.

- Harry

Harry Porter wrote:

Speaking in very general terms, playing vp with a .4% edge (incl cb,
but reduced for error cost) will beg a bankroll of 5x-7x the RF pay
for comfortable play (assuming that game variance isn't much higher
than that of DB ... allow for more for DDB and other rocky rides).

Just caught Jean's subsequent post. My numbers were calc'ed about 3
years ago and I now recall that the .4% was actual the cb/promo cash
edge ON TOP of 10/7 DB ... i.e. a .55% edge.

- H.

well, let's see so far we have 2 people that have never lost more than
3000 playing quarter fpdw and 0 that have gone above that...

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:

Harry Porter wrote:
> Speaking in very general terms, playing vp with a .4% edge (incl

cb,

···

> but reduced for error cost) will beg a bankroll of 5x-7x the RF pay
> for comfortable play (assuming that game variance isn't much higher
> than that of DB ... allow for more for DDB and other rocky rides).

Just caught Jean's subsequent post. My numbers were calc'ed about 3
years ago and I now recall that the .4% was actual the cb/promo cash
edge ON TOP of 10/7 DB ... i.e. a .55% edge.

- H.

http://www.gamblingtools.net/vp/vpanalyzer.html

according to this easy to use tool, the 96% i mentioned previously is
at the 5000 level not 3000...great tool as you can either select to
input the ror or bankroll amt and calculate the other figure...someone
maybe to comment on the actual accuracy of the calculations....

using:
http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/analyzer/CindyProg.html
10/7db +0.4%cb: 10%ror bankroll = 5365 bets: 5365/800=6.7 royals
10/7db no cb: 10%ror bankroll = 18534 bets: 18534/800=23 royals

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:

Harry Porter wrote:
> Speaking in very general terms, playing vp with a .4% edge (incl

cb,

> but reduced for error cost) will beg a bankroll of 5x-7x the RF

pay

> for comfortable play (assuming that game variance isn't much

higher

···

> than that of DB ... allow for more for DDB and other rocky rides).

Just caught Jean's subsequent post. My numbers were calc'ed about 3
years ago and I now recall that the .4% was actual the cb/promo cash
edge ON TOP of 10/7 DB ... i.e. a .55% edge.

- H.

fpdw no cb 4% ror I get bankroll=4927 bets=4927x$1.25=$6,159 on 5 coin
quarters

the calculations behind the tool are exact and limited only by the
input precision and calculator precision

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "irdd3000" <irdd@n...> wrote:

http://www.gamblingtools.net/vp/vpanalyzer.html

according to this easy to use tool, the 96% i mentioned previously is
at the 5000 level not 3000...great tool as you can either select to
input the ror or bankroll amt and calculate the other figure...someone
maybe to comment on the actual accuracy of the calculations....

just noticed the bankroll is in units so you need to multiply for
$1.25, so you are correct...

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

fpdw no cb 4% ror I get bankroll=4927 bets=4927x$1.25=$6,159 on 5

coin

···

quarters

the calculations behind the tool are exact and limited only by the
input precision and calculator precision

if you are mathematically inclined and have a spreadsheet you can "diy"
the formula is: R(1)=probability x R(1)^(win+cb) summed for each win
type (rf,sf,quad...) including no win
the formula is recursive, so you have to start with an initial value
and solve for exact value
once you have R(1), the ror of any bankroll is R(1)^(bankroll in bets)
one bet is the amount bet per hand, for example for 5 coin quarters it
is $1.25

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "irdd3000" <irdd@n...> wrote:

just noticed the bankroll is in units so you need to multiply for
$1.25, so you are correct...

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
> fpdw no cb 4% ror I get bankroll=4927 bets=4927x$1.25=$6,159 on 5
coin
> quarters
>
> the calculations behind the tool are exact and limited only by the
> input precision and calculator precision

for the precision freaks:
i get fpdw no-cb R(1)=0.999346832571955
10% ror bankroll=ln(.1)/ln(R(1))=3524.1087=$4,405.14

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

···

if you are mathematically inclined and have a spreadsheet you can "diy"
the formula is: R(1)=probability x R(1)^(win+cb) summed for each win
type (rf,sf,quad...) including no win
the formula is recursive, so you have to start with an initial value
and solve for exact value
once you have R(1), the ror of any bankroll is R(1)^(bankroll in bets)
one bet is the amount bet per hand, for example for 5 coin quarters it
is $1.25

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "irdd3000" <irdd@n...> wrote:
> just noticed the bankroll is in units so you need to multiply for
> $1.25, so you are correct...
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
> <nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
> > fpdw no cb 4% ror I get bankroll=4927 bets=4927x$1.25=$6,159 on 5
> coin
> > quarters
> >
> > the calculations behind the tool are exact and limited only by the
> > input precision and calculator precision