Does anyone out there remember where the technical definition of "Long Term" for video poker is sequestered? I remember the content and that it was the number of hands required to have a 99% chance of being within + or - 1% of expectancy, but I can't seem to find it now.
~FK
Grab the volatility index or standard deviation for whatever you're talking
about (the Wizard of Odds has it for a few of the games), and apply the
basic Confidence Interval formula to find the the range after n games. It's
a simple formula so you can guess or check to get a 1% CI interval, or you
can solve for n. Alternatively, I believe XLS has =confidence( but no
matter what, you're going to need a VI of standard deviation first.
On Sun, Nov 27, 2011 at 3:47 PM, Frank <frank@progressivevp.com> wrote:
**
Does anyone out there remember where the technical definition of "Long
Term" for video poker is sequestered? I remember the content and that it
was the number of hands required to have a 99% chance of being within + or
- 1% of expectancy, but I can't seem to find it now.~FK
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Does anyone out there remember where the technical definition of "Long Term" for video poker is sequestered? I remember the content and that it was the number of hands required to have a 99% chance of being within + or - 1% of expectancy, but I can't seem to find it now.
~FK
There's a measure called "N0" that I believe is meant to define the
point at which expected value is 1 standard deviation above break
even. But I wouldn't call any definition "official."
Perhaps you're remembering a discussion about longterm at this link:
http://members.cox.net/vpfree/FAQ_LT.htm
...especially the part posted by John G. Zaroff part way down the page. Zaroff credits TomSki with calculating how many hands it would take to have a 95% chance of being within 1% of EV.
That's an interesting measure, but I don't think either Zaroff or TomSki meant for that to be an official technical definition of long term.
--Dunbar
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
Does anyone out there remember where the technical definition of "Long Term" for video poker is sequestered? I remember the content and that it was the number of hands required to have a 99% chance of being within + or - 1% of expectancy, but I can't seem to find it now.
~FK
I know you can get $100 in FP for 30,000 points But are there smaller denominations, i.e., $50 for 15,000? Anything smaller?
Also, is there a maximum amount limit you can get in FP?
Also, once you get the voucher, how long do you have before it expires.
TIA
________________
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
This is John Zaroff. Long Term doesn't really have a fixed definition. The Tomski definition gives a way of calculating one definition of long term. It really has to be defined in terms of % away from expected and a confidence interval.
If you want to know how long you have to play before you exactly achieve the actual expected value, it is really infinite. This is similar to the limits definition from calculus. By choosing an appropriate value, you can make the result as close to the limit as you want but you never hit it.
If you want 1% deviation, that is one value. If you want 0.1% you need 100 times as many hands.
You can calculate how many hands to get how close, but which one of these calculations is 'long term' is up for discussion.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@...> wrote:
Perhaps you're remembering a discussion about longterm at this link:
http://members.cox.net/vpfree/FAQ_LT.htm
...especially the part posted by John G. Zaroff part way down the page. Zaroff credits TomSki with calculating how many hands it would take to have a 95% chance of being within 1% of EV.
That's an interesting measure, but I don't think either Zaroff or TomSki meant for that to be an official technical definition of long term.
--Dunbar
Long term is the amount of time the machines spend in the casino.
Short term is the amount of time you spend in the casino.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
Does anyone out there remember where the technical definition of "Long Term" for video poker is sequestered? I remember the content and that it was the number of hands required to have a 99% chance of being within + or - 1% of expectancy, but I can't seem to find it now.
~FK
Hi Jean-
The lowest I saw offered was $50 for 15,000. At Flamingo the free play cards were not where the gift cards were- they were in te middle of the displays (the gift cards were off in a corner).
Sorry- didn't see anything regrading a maxixmum.
Ms. Craps is correct- you had to specify which casino you want to redeem them at- I think you have a week to redeem them- but it may have only been 48 or 72 hours- jeez I'm getting old- can't remember stuff from 2 1/2 weeks ago!
Hope that helps a little- Thanks, Lee.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:
I know you can get $100 in FP for 30,000 points But are there smaller denominations, i.e., $50 for 15,000? Anything smaller?
Also, is there a maximum amount limit you can get in FP?
Also, once you get the voucher, how long do you have before it expires.
TIA
________________
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
N0 (Nzero) = variance/edge^2 hands
Example: FPDW +0.25% cashback: N0 = 26/.01/.01 = 260,000 hands
At less than N0 hands you are in the short term (std.dev.>edge or luck>skill), at more than N0 hands you are in the long term (edge>std.dev. or skill>luck), so N0 is the inflection point where skill begins to overtake luck. In the short term, luck is dominant, in the long term, skill is dominant.
It's in the FAQ.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:
>Does anyone out there remember where the technical definition of "Long Term" for video poker is sequestered? I remember the content and that it was the number of hands required to have a 99% chance of being within + or - 1% of expectancy, but I can't seem to find it now.
>
>~FKThere's a measure called "N0" that I believe is meant to define the
point at which expected value is 1 standard deviation above break
even. But I wouldn't call any definition "official."
I cannot access the link you provided, nor can I find any section of vpFREE entitled faq. How do I get to the info on NO exactly???
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
>
> Does anyone out there remember where the technical definition of "Long Term" for video poker is sequestered? I remember the content and that it was the number of hands required to have a 99% chance of being within + or - 1% of expectancy, but I can't seem to find it now.
>
> ~FK
>Perhaps you're remembering a discussion about longterm at this link:
http://members.cox.net/vpfree/FAQ_LT.htm
...especially the part posted by John G. Zaroff part way down the page. Zaroff credits TomSki with calculating how many hands it would take to have a 95% chance of being within 1% of EV.
That's an interesting measure, but I don't think either Zaroff or TomSki meant for that to be an official technical definition of long term.
--Dunbar
Actually, the point I was trying to make on another forum was that one has to define it or else it's a meaningless phrase. You've done that nicely. Thank you.
I believe NO was the thing I had seen a couple years ago that provided some definition. Now if I could just find out how to access it?
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@> wrote:
>
> Perhaps you're remembering a discussion about longterm at this link:
>
> http://members.cox.net/vpfree/FAQ_LT.htm
>
> ...especially the part posted by John G. Zaroff part way down the page. Zaroff credits TomSki with calculating how many hands it would take to have a 95% chance of being within 1% of EV.
>
> That's an interesting measure, but I don't think either Zaroff or TomSki meant for that to be an official technical definition of long term.
>
> --Dunbar
>This is John Zaroff. Long Term doesn't really have a fixed definition. The Tomski definition gives a way of calculating one definition of long term. It really has to be defined in terms of % away from expected and a confidence interval.
If you want to know how long you have to play before you exactly achieve the actual expected value, it is really infinite. This is similar to the limits definition from calculus. By choosing an appropriate value, you can make the result as close to the limit as you want but you never hit it.
If you want 1% deviation, that is one value. If you want 0.1% you need 100 times as many hands.
You can calculate how many hands to get how close, but which one of these calculations is 'long term' is up for discussion.
Are you just trying to be funny? I've been known to do this once or twice myself...
I hope you don't really think this was a "technical" description. If so I guess I have to go look up "technical" as well now.
FK:)
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Rich Givens" <canoebum@...> wrote:
Long term is the amount of time the machines spend in the casino.
Short term is the amount of time you spend in the casino.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
>
> Does anyone out there remember where the technical definition of "Long Term" for video poker is sequestered? I remember the content and that it was the number of hands required to have a 99% chance of being within + or - 1% of expectancy, but I can't seem to find it now.
>
> ~FK
>
Thank you all I have found it. Someone emailed me a direct link.
I still can't get to it from my browser from the vpFREE forum for some reason but I can access it directly.
Thanks!
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
I cannot access the link you provided, nor can I find any section of vpFREE entitled faq. How do I get to the info on NO exactly???
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@> wrote:
>
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> >
> > Does anyone out there remember where the technical definition of "Long Term" for video poker is sequestered? I remember the content and that it was the number of hands required to have a 99% chance of being within + or - 1% of expectancy, but I can't seem to find it now.
> >
> > ~FK
> >
>
> Perhaps you're remembering a discussion about longterm at this link:
>
> http://members.cox.net/vpfree/FAQ_LT.htm
>
> ...especially the part posted by John G. Zaroff part way down the page. Zaroff credits TomSki with calculating how many hands it would take to have a 95% chance of being within 1% of EV.
>
> That's an interesting measure, but I don't think either Zaroff or TomSki meant for that to be an official technical definition of long term.
>
> --Dunbar
>
When you get around to revising your book, which is excellent by the way, you should put N0 in it.
Here's Brett Harris' 1997 math paper on it:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/Betsize/theory.htm
"The functional n0[b] is called the Long Run Index, because it is equal to the number of rounds that must be played, with a fixed betting spread, such that the accumulated expectation equals the accumulated standard deviation. As such, it is a measure of how many rounds must be played to overcome a negative fluctuation of one standard deviation with such a fixed spread."
It's written for blackjack but applies to any gamble or stochastic process.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
Thank you all I have found it. Someone emailed me a direct link.
I still can't get to it from my browser from the vpFREE forum for some reason but I can access it directly.
Thanks!
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
>
> I cannot access the link you provided, nor can I find any section of vpFREE entitled faq. How do I get to the info on NO exactly???
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Does anyone out there remember where the technical definition of "Long Term" for video poker is sequestered? I remember the content and that it was the number of hands required to have a 99% chance of being within + or - 1% of expectancy, but I can't seem to find it now.
> > >
> > > ~FK
> > >
> >
> > Perhaps you're remembering a discussion about longterm at this link:
> >
> > http://members.cox.net/vpfree/FAQ_LT.htm
> >
> > ...especially the part posted by John G. Zaroff part way down the page. Zaroff credits TomSki with calculating how many hands it would take to have a 95% chance of being within 1% of EV.
> >
> > That's an interesting measure, but I don't think either Zaroff or TomSki meant for that to be an official technical definition of long term.
> >
> > --Dunbar
> >
>