vpFREE2 Forums

Long Losing Streak

#1

I'm experiencing a long and painful losing streak. I travel to Vegas 4-
5 times a year and also play at Argosy in Lawrenceburg, IN. I play $1
DDB. In 2004, I hit 12 Royals, all on Progressives and had a great
year.

Since then, I went to Vegas, Mirage in Jan 05 and October 05. Both
trips, lost $6500 each time for 3 day stays. I generally play 15-18
hours per day. During both stays, no Royals, no Aces with kicker.
Same was true at Argosy for 2 day trips, losing $2500 each trip.

I play fast and use the suggested strategy for DDB.

I visited Argosy yesterday and had 5 quads in 5 hours of play, all of
the $250 category. Lost another $2200. Others playing the bank of 8
$1 machines were having the same luck. Saw 1 quad hit with 2's and
the kicker during that time. The pay table is 9/5.

What gives, is this my own bad luck or have the machines changed?

#2

What gives, is this my own bad luck or have the machines changed?

If its of any consolation I went through something similar in 2004. My game of choice is DDB
at both .50c and $1.00 level. For all of that year no matter where I played I couldn't win a
thing if my life depended on it to the point that I was going to swear off playing ever again.
Then last year, in one trip to LV alone, I netted $7000.00 with royals and aces with kickers at
basically the same casinos I had played at the year before (The Palms,Caesar's...etc). After
three years of playing locally here in Canada at Pick'em Poker, I finally got my first royal for
$6000.00 last month after never getting higher than a straight flush over a year ago!

I think luck does have something to do with it, also being at the right place at the right time
and of course good playing strategy definitely helps.

#3

DDB is one of the higher variance games which leads to both big wins
and big losses. Have you added all your results together for 2004 and
2005 to see where you stand overall? Assuming 800 HPH you should lose
an average of $80/hr with dollar 9-5 DDB, half that with 9-6. These
numbers double during RF droughts.

Dick

I'm experiencing a long and painful losing streak. I travel to

Vegas 4-

5 times a year and also play at Argosy in Lawrenceburg, IN. I play

$1

DDB. In 2004, I hit 12 Royals, all on Progressives and had a great
year.

Since then, I went to Vegas, Mirage in Jan 05 and October 05. Both
trips, lost $6500 each time for 3 day stays. I generally play 15-

18

hours per day. During both stays, no Royals, no Aces with kicker.
Same was true at Argosy for 2 day trips, losing $2500 each trip.

I play fast and use the suggested strategy for DDB.

I visited Argosy yesterday and had 5 quads in 5 hours of play, all

of

the $250 category. Lost another $2200. Others playing the bank of

8

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "newnow2002" <newnow2002@...> wrote:

$1 machines were having the same luck. Saw 1 quad hit with 2's and
the kicker during that time. The pay table is 9/5.

What gives, is this my own bad luck or have the machines changed?

#4

---newnow2002 wrote:

I'm experiencing a long and painful losing streak. [playing DDB]

I'm glad to see some DDB hardcores post. I really enjoy DDB myself,
I get about 6 trips per year to Nevada, and probably spend half of
my 12-14 hrs per day at DDB. I'm lucky enough to have the 10/6
version available and I mix it up between 25c/50c 3-play & 5-play
and single line 25c/50c/$1. $1 single line 10/6 and 9/6 and 25c 9/6
DDB has prog RFs. I'm pretty sure I'm on the plus side on this game
after 3 yrs, but I don't track each game individually.

I think I jump around from game-to-game more than the average bear,
but I have a sequence that satisfies my up and down sessions of
DDB. I like to go back and forth between BP and DDB. 8/5 ACE$ Bonus
poker is usually available, if not, I'll do regular 8/5 BP. It's
just a nice change of pace to get the 2-1 for two pair, and the
strategy holds are not that much different. ("Aces alone" is my
switchover mantra/reminder when I start DDB). Certainly I notice and
enjoy the decreased variance of BP, especially if the DDB
rollercoaster has taken me for a downward session. But then I begin
to crave the big quad payoffs, and it's time to switch back.
Something in my brain tells me when to switch, and it's a
distracting "want" until I follow that inner voice.

I understand when you play outside of Nevada, that you often don't
have a lot of choice about the best games by paytable to play. But
it sounds like the variance is denting your bankroll, so either get
your wheelbarrow ready to collect your big payoff from the variance
swinging back to your favor, or try a mellower game to soothe your
distracting losses, until you are psychologically ready to tackle
DDB again.

I've been warned by a lot of posters that I'm playing with fire by
playing so much DDB, and I'll probably agree if/when I have a long
losing streak like you are in. That's another good reason I keep my
skills current for other games - I play KBJW and FPDW about 1/3 of
the time. DDB & BP the other 2/3. I've dabbled with Multistrike, but
it's too quirky and too much different of a strategy change to
dedicate time or bankroll to.

Anyhow, enough about me. I think your session bankroll would notice
the difference if you are willing to travel to get 9/6 or better yet
10/6 DDB games. (You KNOW somebody was gonna say this....)

~MARK
       in Seattle

#5

Hi Mark,
  
What are some of the more mellow Vp games ? DDB is a favorite of mine but it can be a wild ride ! I'm learning DW but I think it'll be another wild ride . I live in the Mid-South area and good VP (full pay) is very hard to come by in Tunica and at the riverboat casino's near me. Being a new student to VP, I only know the strategies for a few games at this point but which games would you suggest that are mellower than DDB and FPDW?
  
  Thank u kindly.
  
  Nita
   
  > I'm experiencing a long and painful losing streak. [playing DDB]
  
  I'm glad to see some DDB hardcores post. I really enjoy DDB myself,
  I get about 6 trips per year to Nevada, and probably spend half of
  my 12-14 hrs per day at DDB. I'm lucky enough to have the 10/6
  version available and I mix it up between 25c/50c 3-play & 5-play
  and single line 25c/50c/$1. $1 single line 10/6 and 9/6 and 25c 9/6
  DDB has prog RFs. I'm pretty sure I'm on the plus side on this game
  after 3 yrs, but I don't track each game individually.
  
  I think I jump around from game-to-game more than the average bear,
  but I have a sequence that satisfies my up and down sessions of
  DDB. I like to go back and forth between BP and DDB. 8/5 ACE$ Bonus
  poker is usually available, if not, I'll do regular 8/5 BP. It's
  just a nice change of pace to get the 2-1 for two pair, and the
  strategy holds are not that much different. ("Aces alone" is my
  switchover mantra/reminder when I start DDB). Certainly I notice and
  enjoy the decreased variance of BP, especially if the DDB
  rollercoaster has taken me for a downward session. But then I begin
  to crave the big quad payoffs, and it's time to switch back.
  Something in my brain tells me when to switch, and it's a
  distracting "want" until I follow that inner voice.
  
  I understand when you play outside of Nevada, that you often don't
  have a lot of choice about the best games by paytable to play. But
  it sounds like the variance is denting your bankroll, so either get
  your wheelbarrow ready to collect your big payoff from the variance
  swinging back to your favor, or try a mellower game to soothe your
  distracting losses, until you are psychologically ready to tackle
  DDB again.
  
  I've been warned by a lot of posters that I'm playing with fire by
  playing so much DDB, and I'll probably agree if/when I have a long
  losing streak like you are in. That's another good reason I keep my
  skills current for other games - I play KBJW and FPDW about 1/3 of
  the time. DDB & BP the other 2/3. I've dabbled with Multistrike, but
  it's too quirky and too much different of a strategy change to
  dedicate time or bankroll to.
  
  Anyhow, enough about me. I think your session bankroll would notice
  the difference if you are willing to travel to get 9/6 or better yet
  10/6 DDB games. (You KNOW somebody was gonna say this....)
  
   ~MARK
         in Seattle
  
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Mark <mark_my_words_again@yahoo.com> wrote: ---newnow2002 wrote:
        
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#6

Well, Anita, you will want to look for the charts that show
VARIANCE ("var").

In general, it's a measure of heighth of the profit and loss
fluctuations that one would expect "over the long term" for any
given paytable.
While even this is an understatement of a complex mathematical
discussion, I can simplify it even more for the beginner: you need a
bigger bankroll playing these higher variance (riskier) games so
that you don't tap out during the downswings.

The lower the variance #, the less risk of "ruin" for a given
bankroll. But EV is be just as important in your bankroll needs,
because if you play long enough, an EV less than 100% game, by
itself (not counting cash back & comps, etc.) will always tend
toward negative returns. And then the discussion deteriorates into
a discussion of what is the "long term" and even does it exist?

Hopefully you'll enjoy my simple answer, and just play the game that
you are the most expert at and have the most "fun per dollar" at.
AND QUIT when you are ahead! Play for the short term win!

Before somebody jumps to my rescue or on the attack, let me finish.
Here's the numbers:

game EV Variance
9/6 JoB 99.54% 19.5
8/5 BP 99.17 20.9
FPDW 100.76 25.8
FPJW KB 100.65 26.2
10/7 DB 100.17 28.3
10/6 DDB 100.06 42.2
9/6 DDB 98.98 42.0
9/7 TDB 99.58 98.3

For other games, look on the VPSM links from vpFree homepage. Or try
the vpFree Glossary link.

Generally speaking from an EV and Var standpoint, FPDW looks pretty
good!

I'll tell you what, five minutes after I hit a Royal, these numbers
mean nothing to me. It's the long losing streaks where I start
scratching my head and running the numbers and sweating variance and
bankrolls.

Give a quick reply post here if you want more detail! Then the
numbers guys will take over.

cavalierly,

~MARK

--- anita walker <wrote:

Hi Mark,
What are some of the more mellow Vp games ? DDB is a favorite

of mine but it can be a wild ride ! I'm learning DW but I think
it'll be another wild ride . I live in the Mid-South area and good
VP (full pay) is very hard to come by in Tunica and at the
riverboat casino's near me. Being a new student to VP, I only
know the strategies for a few games at this point but which games
would you suggest that are mellower than DDB and FPDW?

···

  Thank u kindly.
  
  Nita

#7

Mark,
  
  Thank you again for taking time to reply. I thought it was a wonderful response.
  
  You are right, DW doesn't look so bad. My problem is finding FPDW . Plus, I prefer $1 machines. Is there a general rule to follow regarding bankroll needed?
  
  Thanks again and good luck to you.
  
  Nita

Mark <mark_my_words_again@yahoo.com> wrote: Well, Anita, you will want to look for the charts that show
  VARIANCE ("var").
  
  In general, it's a measure of heighth of the profit and loss
  fluctuations that one would expect "over the long term" for any
  given paytable.
  While even this is an understatement of a complex mathematical
  discussion, I can simplify it even more for the beginner: you need a
  bigger bankroll playing these higher variance (riskier) games so
  that you don't tap out during the downswings.
  
  The lower the variance #, the less risk of "ruin" for a given
  bankroll. But EV is be just as important in your bankroll needs,
  because if you play long enough, an EV less than 100% game, by
  itself (not counting cash back & comps, etc.) will always tend
  toward negative returns. And then the discussion deteriorates into
  a discussion of what is the "long term" and even does it exist?
  
  Hopefully you'll enjoy my simple answer, and just play the game that
  you are the most expert at and have the most "fun per dollar" at.
  AND QUIT when you are ahead! Play for the short term win!
  
  Before somebody jumps to my rescue or on the attack, let me finish.
  Here's the numbers:
  
  game EV Variance
  9/6 JoB 99.54% 19.5
  8/5 BP 99.17 20.9
  FPDW 100.76 25.8
  FPJW KB 100.65 26.2
  10/7 DB 100.17 28.3
  10/6 DDB 100.06 42.2
  9/6 DDB 98.98 42.0
  9/7 TDB 99.58 98.3
  
  For other games, look on the VPSM links from vpFree homepage. Or try
  the vpFree Glossary link.
  
  Generally speaking from an EV and Var standpoint, FPDW looks pretty
  good!
  
  I'll tell you what, five minutes after I hit a Royal, these numbers
  mean nothing to me. It's the long losing streaks where I start
  scratching my head and running the numbers and sweating variance and
  bankrolls.
  
  Give a quick reply post here if you want more detail! Then the
  numbers guys will take over.
  
   cavalierly,
  
   ~MARK
  
  --- anita walker <wrote:
  > Hi Mark,
  > What are some of the more mellow Vp games ? DDB is a favorite
  of mine but it can be a wild ride ! I'm learning DW but I think
  it'll be another wild ride . I live in the Mid-South area and good
  VP (full pay) is very hard to come by in Tunica and at the
  riverboat casino's near me. Being a new student to VP, I only
  know the strategies for a few games at this point but which games
  would you suggest that are mellower than DDB and FPDW?
   
  > Thank u kindly.
  >
  > Nita
  
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          SPONSORED LINKS
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#8

Well, you are asking loaded questions here that have been the subject of many
dozens of threads and hundreds of posts in the last few years. The mathematical
discussions go on and on. I used to think it was just theoretical b.s., but as a math
whiz and engineer, I know that the math part of it is valid. It would increase in
relevance to me if the world would only act according to probabilistic models. Your
own experiences will convince you that the more money you can bring, the easier it is
to weather those down-turns.

Bankroll questions can be answered by "risk of ruin" calculators that you can search
for yourself, there are links in the links section of vpFree home page. The variables
you have to enter are
   the game's EV% (plus any cash back or comp% you wish to estimate)
   the denomination and number of hands (8 hrs x 600 hands per hour, for example)
    your comfort zone (a 5% R-o-R being much more comfortable than a 50% R-o-R)

and the calculator will spit out the bankroll needed.
Or, conversely, enter your bankroll and it will calculate your risk of ruin.
A $200 bankroll might be comfortable for an hour at $1 denom, but if you wanna last
5 days @ 8 hrs per day, I bet you'll want to bring way more than $5000. (I made these
numbers up without the calculator!)

Some well-seasoned players have recommended here on vpFree to bring at least
three Royal's worth of bankroll for an average 5-day trip. By this rule-of-thumb,
bringing along $12,000 should save you a cash machine or cashier's cage visit.

ME? I bring as much as I can, I go up in denom when I'm down a Royal amount, and I
go back down when I recoup losses at the higher denom. Best to have a Plan before
you play, and to stick to the Plan whether you are way up or way down. Win goals,
and stop loss limits. Or this hobby has the risk of spinning your gaming budget out-
of-control.

~MARK

---anita walker wrote:

Mark,
  
  Thank you again for taking time to reply. I thought it was a wonderful response.
  
  You are right, DW doesn't look so bad. My problem is finding FPDW . Plus, I

prefer $1 machines. Is there a general rule to follow regarding bankroll needed?

···

  
  Thanks again and good luck to you.
  
  Nita

#9

I highly recommend the Dunbar Risk Analyzer for Video Poker. It's available from LVA (and probably some other places). It will answer your bankroll questions.
Skip

anita walker wrote:

···

Mark,
  Thank you again for taking time to reply. I thought it was a wonderful response.
  You are right, DW doesn't look so bad. My problem is finding FPDW . Plus, I prefer $1 machines. Is there a general rule to follow regarding bankroll needed?
  Thanks again and good luck to you.
  Nita

Mark <mark_my_words_again@yahoo.com> wrote: Well, Anita, you will want to look for the charts that show VARIANCE ("var").
  In general, it's a measure of heighth of the profit and loss fluctuations that one would expect "over the long term" for any given paytable. While even this is an understatement of a complex mathematical discussion, I can simplify it even more for the beginner: you need a bigger bankroll playing these higher variance (riskier) games so that you don't tap out during the downswings.
  The lower the variance #, the less risk of "ruin" for a given bankroll. But EV is be just as important in your bankroll needs, because if you play long enough, an EV less than 100% game, by itself (not counting cash back & comps, etc.) will always tend toward negative returns. And then the discussion deteriorates into a discussion of what is the "long term" and even does it exist?
  Hopefully you'll enjoy my simple answer, and just play the game that you are the most expert at and have the most "fun per dollar" at. AND QUIT when you are ahead! Play for the short term win!
  Before somebody jumps to my rescue or on the attack, let me finish.
Here's the numbers:
  game EV Variance
9/6 JoB 99.54% 19.5
8/5 BP 99.17 20.9
FPDW 100.76 25.8
FPJW KB 100.65 26.2
10/7 DB 100.17 28.3
10/6 DDB 100.06 42.2
9/6 DDB 98.98 42.0
9/7 TDB 99.58 98.3
  For other games, look on the VPSM links from vpFree homepage. Or try the vpFree Glossary link.
  Generally speaking from an EV and Var standpoint, FPDW looks pretty good!
  I'll tell you what, five minutes after I hit a Royal, these numbers mean nothing to me. It's the long losing streaks where I start scratching my head and running the numbers and sweating variance and bankrolls.
  Give a quick reply post here if you want more detail! Then the numbers guys will take over.
   cavalierly,
   ~MARK
  --- anita walker <wrote:
> Hi Mark, > What are some of the more mellow Vp games ? DDB is a favorite of mine but it can be a wild ride ! I'm learning DW but I think it'll be another wild ride . I live in the Mid-South area and good VP (full pay) is very hard to come by in Tunica and at the riverboat casino's near me. Being a new student to VP, I only know the strategies for a few games at this point but which games would you suggest that are mellower than DDB and FPDW?
   > Thank u kindly.
> > Nita

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Thanks!
Skip
http://www.vpinsider.com

#10

Newnow;
In video poker this would not be considered a long losing streak. Streaks of 150,000 - 200,00 w/o a royal are not all that uncommon and even locals that play every day have losing streaks that can last for months*. Those who play dollars/two-dollars can easily lose many tens of thousands of dollars during these streaks and high limit players much more.
Even low variance VP is high variance. Video poker is a game of streaks.
*Quarter players who limit their play to very high return games, can often avoid these disasterous streaks, since they are not as dependent

···

on royals. This is becoming much harder to do these days. Skip newnow2002 wrote:

I'm experiencing a long and painful losing streak. I travel to Vegas 4-
5 times a year and also play at Argosy in Lawrenceburg, IN. I play $1
DDB. In 2004, I hit 12 Royals, all on Progressives and had a great year.

Since then, I went to Vegas, Mirage in Jan 05 and October 05. Both trips, lost $6500 each time for 3 day stays. I generally play 15-18 hours per day. During both stays, no Royals, no Aces with kicker. Same was true at Argosy for 2 day trips, losing $2500 each trip.

I play fast and use the suggested strategy for DDB.

I visited Argosy yesterday and had 5 quads in 5 hours of play, all of the $250 category. Lost another $2200. Others playing the bank of 8 $1 machines were having the same luck. Saw 1 quad hit with 2's and the kicker during that time. The pay table is 9/5.

What gives, is this my own bad luck or have the machines changed?

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

--
Thanks!
Skip
http://www.vpinsider.com

#11

Sorry about the typo. Should read 100,000 - 200,000 hands w/o a royal.

Skip Hughes wrote:

···

Streaks of 150,000 - 200,00 w/o a royal

--
Thanks!
Skip
http://www.vpinsider.com

#12

I hate to state the obvious about 9/6 DDB - but it is a negative expectation game and unless you have A LOT of slot club benefits and promotional benefits, you should EXPECT to lose long-term. Yes, you will have winning periods, but your long-term expectation is downhill.

···

________________________________________
Jean $�ott - http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
  Tax time is coming up - groan! "Tax Help
   for the Frugal Gambler" can answer many
   of your questions!

#13

Good info from Mark. I recently moved up to $1 VP, but only after
very careful consideration of what bankroll I had available and some
serious thought about just how bad things could get and whether I
could stomach a big downswing. I play a lot of JoB which is negative
without a good players club, but the decreased volatility compared to
other games seems to keep me in the game longer.
Drew

Bankroll questions can be answered by "risk of ruin" calculators

that you can search

for yourself, there are links in the links section of vpFree home

page.

A $200 bankroll might be comfortable for an hour at $1 denom, but

if you wanna last

5 days @ 8 hrs per day, I bet you'll want to bring way more than

$5000. (I made these

numbers up without the calculator!)
Some well-seasoned players have recommended here on vpFree to bring

at least

three Royal's worth of bankroll for an average 5-day trip. By this

rule-of-thumb,

bringing along $12,000 should save you a cash machine or cashier's

cage visit.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mark" <mark_my_words_again@...> wrote:

#14

He said 9/5 which means even lower expectations - DNP. :frowning:

I hate to state the obvious about 9/6 DDB - but it is a negative

expectation

game and unless you have A LOT of slot club benefits and promotional
benefits, you should EXPECT to lose long-term. Yes, you will have

winning

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@...> wrote:

periods, but your long-term expectation is downhill.
________________________________________
Jean $¢ott - http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
  Tax time is coming up - groan! "Tax Help
   for the Frugal Gambler" can answer many
   of your questions!

#15

If this topic has already been addressed then I apologize -- I just
didn't see it addressed elsewhere.

I was curious as to what the "effective" variances are for these
games during the losing streaks, for comparison. As Jazbo's webpage
says, "for short term play, the probabilities of the common hands are
more important," which makes sense to me.
http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/curves.html

I believe this would also apply for those pesky long losing streaks
(i.e. no RF or worse). If all of these games pay the 800/1 for the
common RF, then it would seem that the variances could be adjusted by
subtracting the contribution of the RF which is p(RF)*(800)^2 where p
(RF) is the overall probability of getting an RF, which doesn't vary
too much between these games, (and does in fact range between 13-16
according to FVP, depending on the game. I have added to Mark's
table (below) columns that state the RF contribution and the residual
variance once subtracted from the overall variance. I hope the
columns line up properly.

I'm not sure there's a practical use for these numbers other than it
might give a better feel of the roller coaster ride one will
experience for the different games when you are between cycles. I
agree with Mark's sentiments inasmuch as when I get the Royal I don't
really care about the numbers or for that matter which game I was
playing. But for the majority of the sessions, this could be
considered a "practical" comparison of variance. I always like to
manage my expectations :).

Mark: See you in Reno one of these days! My next trip is to the
Peppermill Feb 27th for three nights.

Al

(snip)

Here's the numbers:

game EV Variance RF contr Residual var.
9/6 JoB 99.54% 19.5 16.1 3.4
8/5 BP 99.17 20.9 15.8 5.1
FPDW 100.76 25.8 14.0 11.8
FPJW KB 100.65 26.2 16.2 10.0
10/7 DB 100.17 28.3 13.3 15.0
10/6 DDB 100.06 42.2 15.0 27.2
9/6 DDB 98.98 42.0 16.0 26.0
9/7 TDB 99.58 98.3 14.0 84.3

For other games, look on the VPSM links from vpFree homepage. Or

try

the vpFree Glossary link.

Generally speaking from an EV and Var standpoint, FPDW looks pretty
good!

I'll tell you what, five minutes after I hit a Royal, these numbers
mean nothing to me. It's the long losing streaks where I start
scratching my head and running the numbers and sweating variance

and

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mark" <mark_my_words_again@...> wrote:

bankrolls.

Give a quick reply post here if you want more detail! Then the
numbers guys will take over.

cavalierly,

~MARK