drefm wrote:
I have an idea that one advantage that Las Vegas locals have in video
poker (or other minimal house advantage games like black jack) is their
ability to "come back tomorrow". From personal experience, and in
talking to others, the worst thing that can happen to a visitor is the
early win. Since the visitor probably can't gamble at their home, they
have to gamble it up in Vegas. After the big win, the percentages and
lack of practice work against the visitor, and they are lucky to break
even.
Someone who "gambles it up" will probably benefit if they
don't live in Las Vegas where they are subject to constant
temptations.
OTOH, disciplined LV locals who play positive situations
have an advantage over visitors because these positive
situations are readily available.
The local, on the other hand, can get a small win each day to
supplement their normal income, since they can leave and come back each
day. If the local chooses a low volitility game, such as Pick 'Em
Poker, there are good pays at the low end of the paytable. The player
can play at a $5 or $10 machine, make a quick $100 or $200, and leave.
The local would probably have a stop loss for those bad days, but would
seem to come out ahead in the long run.
Please let me know the flaw in this idea.
You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.
Selectively taking profits or losses or playing short
sessions doesn't affect your expected return - which
is negative for pickem.
You should run some 1000 hand computer simulations
of $5 or $10 pickem (although you can't find any in Las
Vegas) using FVP. You'll find that the quick $100 profit
opportunity never happens a lot of the time and you will
get stopped out frequently or realize sizeable losses.