vpFREE2 Forums

Laying Odds

#1

Julia Ramirez said:
" basically it has to do with the CSM not including the last 12
cards that

have been seen in the shuffle. This gives a strong bias toward the DON'T.
"

What if the last 12 cards are returned to the CSM before each shuffle and

deal?

The cards ARE returned to the CSM after each hand. There
is, however a 12-card buffer that always stays full. So the cards “just
returned” don’t have a chance to be in the next twelve cards out. These “last
in” cards have an equal chance to get into the first open slot on that buffer
next --- but there necessarily will be at least 12 cards that come out before
the “last in” cards can come out again.

Julia further commented: At my local Indian casino, each
player pays a $1 fee to the house on each

roll out (deal out? ) when playing the pass or don't pass. However, players

don't pay the $1 on the come/don't come. I was the only person at the very

crowded craps table playing the come bets and not the pass line. Does the

very interesting information presented in Bob Dancer's column still apply to

this situation?

I don’t have any particulars on the game at your casino.
If it is the “Card Craps” brand, then yes it will likely behave in the same
way. If it is another brand, who knows? But if it uses a CSM, there will likely
continue to be a bias towards the DON’T.

Avoiding the $1 fee by betting Don’t Come instead of Don’t
Pass is clever --- assuming normal rules apply. The fact that nobody else was
doing it strikes me as strange. This is not exactly “advanced strategy.” But
continue to do it. Eventually everyone else will figure out what you’re doing
and/or the dealers will figure out that you’re supposed to be charged the fee
as well.

For people betting “normal” amounts, a $1 fee per come
out roll is WAY too expensive and the game should be avoided. If you were
betting $100 on the DON’T and laying 10x odds at Viejas --- even with a $1 fee
you’d still have a positive game. But the game is “too tight” (i.e. not enough
over 100%) for me now even without that fee.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

Bob, thank you so much for responding to my last post. I love to play craps, but seldom do because of the house advantage. I was so happy to read your column on Tuesday, and plan to learn this new advantage play. Here's another question:

The local casino offers cards craps, but their was of dealing sounds a bit different from the way you described. The CSM randomly deals 6 red cards and 6 blue cards , each numbered 1-6. The "shooter" calls out a number, and the dealer chooses the first red card from that number then the first blue card. For example, if the shooter calls 3, the dealer would pick the 3rd red card and then the 3rd blue card. It seems to me that there is just as much a probability of doubles, etc as a roll of two dice.

Please tell me the flaw in my reasoning and that I can play advantage craps!

#3

Hello.

FWIIW, the "wizard of odds" web-pages have an extensive section on craps with "proper strategy" being a large part of what is said. I learned a great deal, with a bit of careful reading and study, raising my confidence in giving craps a shot.

There is even a simulator that lets you practice what you've learned, again to increase confidence if you decide to actually play.

..... bl

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Julia Ramirez" <ramirez6@...> wrote:

I love to play
craps, but seldom do because of the house advantage.

#4

Julia requested: Please tell me the flaw in my reasoning and that I can play advantage craps!
  I have no reason to believe the game you describe is beatable --- hence my recommendation is you don't play.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

Questions: are there just 12 cards in the CSM (Red 1, Red 2,..., Red 6, Blue 1, Blue 2,..., Blue 6), or are there multiples of each number?

If there are multiples, are the 12 cards put right back into the CSM (and have just as much chance of being dealt in the next "roll" as the cards still in the machine)?

If the answers are "there are multiples" and "the cards are not put back into the CSM before the next draw," then the probability of a particular number (1-6) showing up on a card after the first "roll" is no longer necessarily 1/6.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Julia Ramirez" <ramirez6@...> wrote:

The local casino offers cards craps, but their was of dealing
sounds a bit different from the way you described.
The CSM randomly deals 6 red cards and 6 blue cards , each
numbered 1-6. The "shooter" calls out a number, and the dealer
chooses the first red card from that number then the first blue
card. For example, if the shooter calls 3, the dealer would pick
the 3rd red card and then the 3rd blue card. It seems to me that
there is just as much a probability of doubles, etc as a roll of
two dice.

#6

The alleged CSM is actually not a real CSM, it has an exploitable bug.

discountgambling.net/?s=counting+csm

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Don Del Grande" <don.delgrande@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Julia Ramirez" <ramirez6@> wrote:
>
> The local casino offers cards craps, but their was of dealing
> sounds a bit different from the way you described.
> The CSM randomly deals 6 red cards and 6 blue cards , each
> numbered 1-6. The "shooter" calls out a number, and the dealer
> chooses the first red card from that number then the first blue
> card. For example, if the shooter calls 3, the dealer would pick
> the 3rd red card and then the 3rd blue card. It seems to me that
> there is just as much a probability of doubles, etc as a roll of
> two dice.

Questions: are there just 12 cards in the CSM (Red 1, Red 2,..., Red 6, Blue 1, Blue 2,..., Blue 6), or are there multiples of each number?

If there are multiples, are the 12 cards put right back into the CSM (and have just as much chance of being dealt in the next "roll" as the cards still in the machine)?

If the answers are "there are multiples" and "the cards are not put back into the CSM before the next draw," then the probability of a particular number (1-6) showing up on a card after the first "roll" is no longer necessarily 1/6.