"Old Grumpy" asks "What is wrong with this picture?" Simply that there is no such thing as a "Law of Averages." It's a gambler's myth. Pick up any book on statistics, and look up the "Law of Large Numbers" which says that in the long run you are likely to get closer to expectation on a relative basis even though you might get farther away on an absolute basis.
Randomness is naturally clumpy, but it has no memory. Even though Mr. A is way ahead of Mr. B, their expectations for the future are the same (assuming they're playing the same game with the same strategy).
Dan
Old Grumpy wrote:
ยทยทยท
When it comes to advanced math, I am not the sharpest tool in the
box..That being said,let me set this up. Two strangers sit down adjacent and start
to play the same game with the same strategy.Mr. A has had the good fortune
of hitting 4 Royals in one week. Mrs. B,who has played the same amount of
time has hit none.Supposedly, the chances of either one hitting a royal that day is exactly
the same because of the RNG which has no memory. However, the law of
averages which is an ingredient in the formulation of the strategy, tells us
eventually both players will have approximately hit the same amount of royals if
they continue playing the same way for the same amount of time and the
same game.What is wrong with this picture? Well If this is the first week that
started playing video poker how can everything be equal each new play when Mrs.
B is four Royals behind Mr. A and in the "long run" they will have
accumulated around the same total of RF.Mrs. B is going to have a better chance of catching up so her chances of a
jackpot pull is greater than Mr.B. in the ominous and controversial long
run.
--
Dan Paymar
Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com
"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur