vpFREE2 Forums

knowing im right, but feeling im wrong

#1

Twice yesterday i had similar hands which were 2h5c9dTsAs,
i kept the As of course and twice the first three cards were JQK-SPADES.
the return on 8-5 bonus is 2.3769 for the As and 2.3127 for the As-Ts
according to WINPOKER. i really dont know what these figures mean, i
just keep the highest.

PLEASE explain to me what this would cost me by the hour or in some
terms that i would understand. I actually won 500+, but my winnings
would have been over 2500, the royal are 1199.

if i held all two to a royal with an A what would the penalty be, in
dollar per hour or layman language?

Thanks,
TD

#2

TD wrote:

Twice yesterday i had similar hands which were 2h5c9dTsAs,
i kept the As of course and twice the first three cards were
JQK-SPADES.
the return on 8-5 bonus is 2.3769 for the As and 2.3127 for the As-Ts
according to WINPOKER. i really dont know what these figures mean, i
just keep the highest.

PLEASE explain to me what this would cost me by the hour or in some
terms that i would understand. I actually won 500+, but my winnings
would have been over 2500, the royal are 1199.

if i held all two to a royal with an A what would the penalty be, in
dollar per hour or layman language?

The numbers 2.3769 and 2.3127 indicate your average win if you were to
play enough times to have every possible deal of the cards come up on
your draws. In other words, multiply the number of times you play by
the difference in the two numbers (0.0442) to find out the "penalty"
for Ace-10 suited over Ace.

The first question that needs to be answered is, how common is Ace-10
suited with the other cards less than 10? Of the 2,598,960 possible
deals (assuming order does not matter), only 19,840 of them are Ace-10
suited with the rest of the cards in 2-9 - about 1 hand in 131. In
other words, by discarding the 10, you expect to lose 0.0442 "coins"
every 131 hands, or about 1 coin per 3000 hands.

Now, the bad news - assuming the other payouts are the "usual" (i.e.
it's 1199 for a royal, then 50/25/8/5/4/3/2/1), "true" strategy says
to keep both cards. Strategy is usually calculated based on all
possible deals, as if the cards you discarded could be drawn again;
however, if you discard the 10 from Ace-10 suited, you can't get a
Royal, which is not taken into account in the "basic strategy". If
you do take this into account, Ace-10 suited is better than just Ace
if a Royal pays 1000 or more.

(However, do not make the assumption that you would have been dealt
the JQK if you had kept both cards. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong,
but don't newer machines wait until you push the "draw" button before
determining what cards are in the draw - so the additional fraction of
a section you would have taken in pressing the "hold" button for the
10 would have changed the result?)

-- Don

#3

Don -

You are correct that new machines (and in fact the vast majority of machines) do not determine the second draw until the "Draw" button is hit, meaning it is extremely unlikely TD would have had the JQK come up. Machines were made this way after a group of students successfully reverse engineered VP machines in the 1970s to determine the second draw based on the first cards.

Matt

ยทยทยท

________________________________
From: Don Del Grande <del_grande@earthlink.net>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, December 22, 2008 12:43:40 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: knowing im right, but feeling im wrong

TD wrote:

Twice yesterday i had similar hands which were 2h5c9dTsAs,
i kept the As of course and twice the first three cards were
JQK-SPADES.
the return on 8-5 bonus is 2.3769 for the As and 2.3127 for the As-Ts
according to WINPOKER. i really dont know what these figures mean, i
just keep the highest.

PLEASE explain to me what this would cost me by the hour or in some
terms that i would understand. I actually won 500+, but my winnings
would have been over 2500, the royal are 1199.

if i held all two to a royal with an A what would the penalty be, in
dollar per hour or layman language?

The numbers 2.3769 and 2.3127 indicate your average win if you were to
play enough times to have every possible deal of the cards come up on
your draws. In other words, multiply the number of times you play by
the difference in the two numbers (0.0442) to find out the "penalty"
for Ace-10 suited over Ace.

The first question that needs to be answered is, how common is Ace-10
suited with the other cards less than 10? Of the 2,598,960 possible
deals (assuming order does not matter), only 19,840 of them are Ace-10
suited with the rest of the cards in 2-9 - about 1 hand in 131. In
other words, by discarding the 10, you expect to lose 0.0442 "coins"
every 131 hands, or about 1 coin per 3000 hands.

Now, the bad news - assuming the other payouts are the "usual" (i.e.
it's 1199 for a royal, then 50/25/8/5/4/ 3/2/1), "true" strategy says
to keep both cards. Strategy is usually calculated based on all
possible deals, as if the cards you discarded could be drawn again;
however, if you discard the 10 from Ace-10 suited, you can't get a
Royal, which is not taken into account in the "basic strategy". If
you do take this into account, Ace-10 suited is better than just Ace
if a Royal pays 1000 or more.

(However, do not make the assumption that you would have been dealt
the JQK if you had kept both cards. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong,
but don't newer machines wait until you push the "draw" button before
determining what cards are in the draw - so the additional fraction of
a section you would have taken in pressing the "hold" button for the
10 would have changed the result?)

-- Don

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Don Del Grande" <del_grande@...>
wrote:

The numbers 2.3769 and 2.3127 indicate your average win if you were

to

play enough times to have every possible deal of the cards come up

on

your draws. In other words, multiply the number of times you play

by

the difference in the two numbers (0.0442) to find out the "penalty"
for Ace-10 suited over Ace.

The first question that needs to be answered is, how common is Ace-

10

suited with the other cards less than 10? Of the 2,598,960 possible
deals (assuming order does not matter), only 19,840 of them are Ace-

10

suited with the rest of the cards in 2-9 - about 1 hand in 131. In
other words, by discarding the 10, you expect to lose 0.0442 "coins"
every 131 hands, or about 1 coin per 3000 hands.

A couple of comments. First, could you elaborate on how you derived
the 19,840 number? I attempted to do the determination, but it
appeared I would come nowhere near that number, so abandoned the
effort.

Second, keeping the 10 is the inferior play. Therefore, shouldn't
you have said:"by keeping the 10, you expect to lose...", rather
than "by discarding the 10"?

Now, the bad news - assuming the other payouts are the "usual" (i.e.
it's 1199 for a royal, then 50/25/8/5/4/3/2/1), "true" strategy says
to keep both cards. Strategy is usually calculated based on all
possible deals, as if the cards you discarded could be drawn again;
however, if you discard the 10 from Ace-10 suited, you can't get a
Royal, which is not taken into account in the "basic strategy". If
you do take this into account, Ace-10 suited is better than just Ace
if a Royal pays 1000 or more.

What is this "true strategy" you refer to? In fact, what is this
entire paragraph about? It doesn't seem to make sense. It certainly
contradicts my understanding of how strategies are developed.