Visiting for the Derby -- Lot's of questions --
1. Does anyone have any early thoughts on Derby picks?
2. Does Horsehoe award reward credits as well as tier credits on the full pay VP?
3. Is the Shopping Spree similar to the ones in other casinos with Callaway Golf available?
4. Any info on 7x points on the 25th and 26th?
5. How are the restaurants / rooms?
6. Any other thoughts on the area?
Thanks for any comments. RW
I'll tackle #1, because horseracing is a major interest of mine.
The top 5 favorites in this year's Ky Derby will likely be:
1. I Want Revenge
2. Quality Road
3. Dunkirk
4. Friesen Fire
5. Pioneer of the Nile.
Of these, I like Pioneer of the Nile the least. He has yet to run on a real dirt surface like he will have to at Churchill Downs. His races have all been on synthetic dirt. He will have to improve substantially on a surface he hasn't been tested on to compete with the other top horses.
Friesen Fire will not have raced in 7 weeks when he races in the Derby. That's too long, IMO.
Quality Road had a hoof problem ("quarter crack") last week. So far he seems to be doing fine and training well. He's got huge talent.
Dunkirk is very lightly raced and finished behind Quality Road in the Florida Derby. None of these horses have run as far as the mile-and-a-quarter Derby distance, but Dunkirk's come-from-behind style makes him a good candidate to get the distance.
My early choice to win is I Want Revenge. He won his last race after spotting his rivals 3 lengths due to a slow start out of the gate and then withstanding some solid bumping in the stretch. His speed figures are the best of the field, too.
Just as in video poker, betting horse should depend on the payout "schedule". In most horseracing, you don't have a good idea of the payouts until the last minute before the gate opens. But in the Ky Derby, the amount bet is so huge that you have a very good idea of the odds even 10 or 15 minutes before the race. For example, you might want to bet I Want Revenge at 5-1 but pass if 3-1 or less.
At 4-1 it might be a close call. (those numbers are just examples and not meant to be precise.)
Some of the longer odds horses may have value, too. Two of particular interest are the horses that finished 1-2 in the UAE Derby in Dubai (Regal Ransom and Desert Party).
If anyone's interested, I usually make my own "fair odds line" for the Derby, and I post it at Sharpsportsbetting.com. I will probably have some picks that will depend on the odds meeting a certain threshold. This year I will probably be doing a taped analysis of the Derby field along with a racing writer from the NY Post, and the audio will be posted at RoughingThePunter.com. (just to be clear, I'm not selling anything)
If you want to get a ballpark idea of what the odds will be, you can check the futures at the offshore sportsbook, TheGreek.com. (just click "View/bet lines" on the left, then "Horses".
--Dunbar
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "casinoredwolf" <iso3@...> wrote:
Visiting for the Derby -- Lot's of questions --
1. Does anyone have any early thoughts on Derby picks?
2. Does Horsehoe award reward credits as well as tier credits on the full pay VP?
3. Is the Shopping Spree similar to the ones in other casinos with Callaway Golf available?
4. Any info on 7x points on the 25th and 26th?
5. How are the restaurants / rooms?
6. Any other thoughts on the area?Thanks for any comments. RW