vpFREE2 Forums

Keno Draw Poker

#1

There's an analysis of Keno Draw Poker on the Wizard of Odds website now:

http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/keno-draw-poker/

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Bartop" <bobbartop@...> wrote:

Walked into my local Indian casino last night and found two new "red triple plays". I said, "Ah, well what have we got here? Two "new" old machines? Upon closer inspection, and after slipping a hundred dollar bill into it, I learned this was some new Keno-Video Poker hybrid thingy. It's a freaking Prius.

Well, I don't know much about Keno. Every time I have looked at all the different versions of Keno, my eyes glaze over. But this looked kinda interesting. I didn't sit there and figure it all out, but you win multipliers. If you hit something on your Keno card, there's a corresponding multiplier for the video poker hands.

I looked it up on Video Poker dot com, and they have it right there on their front page. I couldn't find anything yet on Wizard of Odds. I'd like to see some work on it.

Can anyone comment on it? Paytables, returns, etc.?

#2

Thank you.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ms. vpFREE3" <ms_vpfree_3@...> wrote:

There's an analysis of Keno Draw Poker on the Wizard of Odds website now:

http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/keno-draw-poker/

#3

I can see where this game could become quite popular.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ms. vpFREE3" <ms_vpfree_3@> wrote:
>
> There's an analysis of Keno Draw Poker on the Wizard of Odds website now:
>
> http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/keno-draw-poker/

#4

I suspect I know the answer to this but I will ask it anyway.

Doesn't keno have a $1500 threshold for W2Gs?

Video Poker and slots have a $1200 threshold.

I assume that $1200 is the W2G threshold for this game. Or is it?

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From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On Behalf Of
Mickey
Sent: Sunday, December 23, 2012 10:34 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Keno Draw Poker

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com> , "ms.

vpFREE3" <ms_vpfree_3@> wrote:

>
> There's an analysis of Keno Draw Poker on the Wizard of Odds website

now:

>
> http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/keno-draw-poker/

I can see where this game could become quite popular.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

Live Bingo has a $1500 threshold. Maybe live Keno does too. But the video games are technically slots so get ready for a W2-G if you jackpot a video keno game for $1200 or more.

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In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "pyiddy" <pyiddy@...> wrote:

I suspect I know the answer to this but I will ask it anyway. Doesn't keno have a $1500 threshold for W2Gs? Video Poker and slots have a $1200 threshold. I assume that $1200 is the W2G threshold for this game. Or is it?

#6

And you might get better comps, cash back, mailers, etc. playing live Keno or bingo. That's an important part of your return. But my guess is that they "see" Keno Poker as a VP bet.

So another consideration not mentioned is that you are receiving reduced slot club incentives since Keno Poker will be noted in the system as "video poker" which rewards players at a substantially lower rate than when you play slots. Yet up to 40% of your bet (10 coins out of 25) is being devoted to a random slot-type outcome not dependant on your skilled VP play. I feel the slight bump in EV (if you even find Keno Poker in full-pay) would be more than offset by lost slot club points. Technically you might just be better off by simply playing the non-Keno version of the game while putting that 40% Keno portion of the bet instead into an adjacent slot machine.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "pyiddy" <pyiddy@> wrote:
>
> I suspect I know the answer to this but I will ask it anyway. Doesn't keno have a $1500 threshold for W2Gs? Video Poker and slots have a $1200 threshold. I assume that $1200 is the W2G threshold for this game. Or is it?
>
>
Live Bingo has a $1500 threshold. Maybe live Keno does too. But the video games are technically slots so get ready for a W2-G if you jackpot a video keno game for $1200 or more.

#7

On the other hand, the average person who plays that machinemight be less skilled at the game, so their real payback/returncould be high enough and they might not hold near perfect playagainst you if the machine is a big earner for them.

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--- On Mon, 12/24/12, mikeymic <mikeymic@yahoo.com> wrote:

From: mikeymic <mikeymic@yahoo.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Keno Draw Poker
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Monday, December 24, 2012, 11:33 AM

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "pyiddy" <pyiddy@> wrote:

>

> I suspect I know the answer to this but I will ask it anyway. Doesn't keno have a $1500 threshold for W2Gs? Video Poker and slots have a $1200 threshold. I assume that $1200 is the W2G threshold for this game. Or is it?

>

>

Live Bingo has a $1500 threshold. Maybe live Keno does too. But the video games are technically slots so get ready for a W2-G if you jackpot a video keno game for $1200 or more.

And you might get better comps, cash back, mailers, etc. playing live Keno or bingo. That's an important part of your return. But my guess is that they "see" Keno Poker as a VP bet.

So another consideration not mentioned is that you are receiving reduced slot club incentives since Keno Poker will be noted in the system as "video poker" which rewards players at a substantially lower rate than when you play slots. Yet up to 40% of your bet (10 coins out of 25) is being devoted to a random slot-type outcome not dependant on your skilled VP play. I feel the slight bump in EV (if you even find Keno Poker in full-pay) would be more than offset by lost slot club points. Technically you might just be better off by simply playing the non-Keno version of the game while putting that 40% Keno portion of the bet instead into an adjacent slot machine.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#8

The way I would play the game W2-G's would not be a factor. At least not for quarters. The keno component is actually a postive influence on the video poker component. It raises the expected return of the game. Let's see if we can capture ALL of that positive influence.

First, I would have to have an incentive to play the game. A promotion or whatever that would put the game above the 100% threshold. Cashback is the best one I can think off at the moment. Maybe a multiplier cashback day.

I'm gonna use 8/5 Bonus Poker, one of the games the Wiz put in the payback chart, for an example. First we're gonna list the top five paying games according to the number of spots played. And the game is quarter denom with a ten coin keno bet.

1. 8/5 with 10-spot......99.658%
2. 8/5 with 9-spot.......99.658%
3. 8/5 with 6-spot.......99.633%
4. 8/5 with 4-spot.......99.615%
5. 8/5 with 3-spot.......99.592%

The 10-spot and the 9-spot are actually tied for first place. So let's get at it! Let's play those 10-spots and 9-spots....Not! Here's the little problem. The frequency for cathing a solid ten spot is about 8.9 million to one. Not exactly hittable odds. And the frequency for catching the solid nine is 1.4 million. Not exactly hittable odds either. So if we discont out the payback for the solid ten and the solid nine what would the ranking look like?

1. 8/5 with 6-spot........99.633%
2. 8/5 with 4-spot........99.615%
3. 8/5 with 10-spot.......99.602%
4. 8/5 with 3-spot........99.592%
5. 8/5 with 9-spot........99.219%

The ten spot has dropped to third place and the nine spot to 5th place. Another problem with the ten-spot is the 9 out of ten frequency is 164,000. I just don' like shooting at anything with such extreme odds. Discount out the payback for 9/10 and it drops the ten-spot payback to about 98%.

"So now the 6-spot is at the top of the heap. So let's get at it! Let's hit some six-spots!"

"Well....not so fast there, pardner."

The frequency for the six-spot is 7753. The payoff is 8750 coins. So 8750 coins divided by the total wager of 77530 coins is 11%. That's one helluva drain between six spot hits. No, I don't think I like the six-spot.

That leaves the 4-spot and the 3-spot. I think it's six of one and a half dozen of the other as far as which one to play. They both offer a way to capture all of the intrinsic value of the keno component in the short term.

The 4-spot is just 1.8 hundreths less payback than the six-spot but carries one helluva lot less variance. It has to do with the frequencies involved. The 4-spot offers, by far, the best "hit rate" of any of the number of spots you can play. The hit rate is the chance of catching "something." Here are the chances of catching:

2/4.........4.7
3/4........23.1
4/4.......326.4

When you average these frequencies together you will see that you will hit something, whether it's 2/4, 3/4, 4/4, every 3.86 games. The 7-spot has a hit rate up around 5, the ten-spot up around 6. The rest are even higher. So with the 4-spot you keep those multipliers coming at a steady rate. And the biggest cycle you are dealing with to capture all of the value is 326.4.

The 3-spot has a hit rate of 6.55. But the biggest cycle you are dealing with to capture all of the value is 72.07. And for quarter and dollar players there are no W2-G's involved on the keno side.

Playing 4-spots and 3-spots might not be very exciting to some people, but it is the way to capture all of the value in the short term.

#9

Maybe I misunderstand the game, but it sounds like the base VP game is -EV,
while the keno side game by itself is +EV.

Why would you want to play only the -EV game and forgo the right to play
+EV game?

···

On Mon, Dec 24, 2012 at 11:33 AM, mikeymic <mikeymic@yahoo.com> wrote:

**

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

>
> In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "pyiddy" <pyiddy@> wrote:
> >
> > I suspect I know the answer to this but I will ask it anyway. Doesn't
keno have a $1500 threshold for W2Gs? Video Poker and slots have a $1200
threshold. I assume that $1200 is the W2G threshold for this game. Or is it?
> >
> >
> Live Bingo has a $1500 threshold. Maybe live Keno does too. But the
video games are technically slots so get ready for a W2-G if you jackpot a
video keno game for $1200 or more.

And you might get better comps, cash back, mailers, etc. playing live Keno
or bingo. That's an important part of your return. But my guess is that
they "see" Keno Poker as a VP bet.

So another consideration not mentioned is that you are receiving reduced
slot club incentives since Keno Poker will be noted in the system as "video
poker" which rewards players at a substantially lower rate than when you
play slots. Yet up to 40% of your bet (10 coins out of 25) is being devoted
to a random slot-type outcome not dependant on your skilled VP play. I feel
the slight bump in EV (if you even find Keno Poker in full-pay) would be
more than offset by lost slot club points. Technically you might just be
better off by simply playing the non-Keno version of the game while putting
that 40% Keno portion of the bet instead into an adjacent slot machine.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#10

"Mickey Crimm wrote:

The frequency for the six-spot is 7753. The payoff is 8750 coins. So 8750 coins divided by the total wager of 77530 coins is 11%. That's one helluva drain between six spot hits. No, I don't think I like the six-spot.

First, I did the above all wrong. I figured it from a 10 coin bet. It should be figured from the 25 coin bet. It's a 4.5% drain on the 25 coin bet. Still significant.

Second, I failed to mention that the 4-spot also has no W2-G's on the keno side for quarter and dollar players at this triple play game.

#11

Awesome analysis Mickey.

Thanks.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

The way I would play the game W2-G's would not be a factor. At least not for quarters. The keno component is actually a postive influence on the video poker component. It raises the expected return of the game. Let's see if we can capture ALL of that positive influence.

First, I would have to have an incentive to play the game. A promotion or whatever that would put the game above the 100% threshold. Cashback is the best one I can think off at the moment. Maybe a multiplier cashback day.

I'm gonna use 8/5 Bonus Poker, one of the games the Wiz put in the payback chart, for an example. First we're gonna list the top five paying games according to the number of spots played. And the game is quarter denom with a ten coin keno bet.

1. 8/5 with 10-spot......99.658%
2. 8/5 with 9-spot.......99.658%
3. 8/5 with 6-spot.......99.633%
4. 8/5 with 4-spot.......99.615%
5. 8/5 with 3-spot.......99.592%

The 10-spot and the 9-spot are actually tied for first place. So let's get at it! Let's play those 10-spots and 9-spots....Not! Here's the little problem. The frequency for cathing a solid ten spot is about 8.9 million to one. Not exactly hittable odds. And the frequency for catching the solid nine is 1.4 million. Not exactly hittable odds either. So if we discont out the payback for the solid ten and the solid nine what would the ranking look like?

1. 8/5 with 6-spot........99.633%
2. 8/5 with 4-spot........99.615%
3. 8/5 with 10-spot.......99.602%
4. 8/5 with 3-spot........99.592%
5. 8/5 with 9-spot........99.219%

The ten spot has dropped to third place and the nine spot to 5th place. Another problem with the ten-spot is the 9 out of ten frequency is 164,000. I just don' like shooting at anything with such extreme odds. Discount out the payback for 9/10 and it drops the ten-spot payback to about 98%.

"So now the 6-spot is at the top of the heap. So let's get at it! Let's hit some six-spots!"

"Well....not so fast there, pardner."

The frequency for the six-spot is 7753. The payoff is 8750 coins. So 8750 coins divided by the total wager of 77530 coins is 11%. That's one helluva drain between six spot hits. No, I don't think I like the six-spot.

That leaves the 4-spot and the 3-spot. I think it's six of one and a half dozen of the other as far as which one to play. They both offer a way to capture all of the intrinsic value of the keno component in the short term.

The 4-spot is just 1.8 hundreths less payback than the six-spot but carries one helluva lot less variance. It has to do with the frequencies involved. The 4-spot offers, by far, the best "hit rate" of any of the number of spots you can play. The hit rate is the chance of catching "something." Here are the chances of catching:

2/4.........4.7
3/4........23.1
4/4.......326.4

When you average these frequencies together you will see that you will hit something, whether it's 2/4, 3/4, 4/4, every 3.86 games. The 7-spot has a hit rate up around 5, the ten-spot up around 6. The rest are even higher. So with the 4-spot you keep those multipliers coming at a steady rate. And the biggest cycle you are dealing with to capture all of the value is 326.4.

The 3-spot has a hit rate of 6.55. But the biggest cycle you are dealing with to capture all of the value is 72.07. And for quarter and dollar players there are no W2-G's involved on the keno side.

Playing 4-spots and 3-spots might not be very exciting to some people, but it is the way to capture all of the value in the short term.

#12

I'll break this game down some more so everyone can see what they will be dealing with should they decide to take this game on. According to the Wiz, Triple Play Keno Draw Poker with 8/5 Bonus and a ten coin 4-spot returns 99.615%.

All of the keno payscales are set up to be a big drain on the game. They all return around 50%. But they create the multipliers. The ten coin 4-spot has an ER of 50.78%. We can use that number in a hypothetical situation to determine the effect of the multipliers on the 8/5 Bonus payscale.

What would a 25,000 coin wager (a 15,000 coin wager at video poker and a 10,000 coin wager at keno) look like? First we'll multiply the 25,000 coin wager by .99615 to get an expected return of 24,903.75 coins. The 10,000 coin wager has an ER of 50.78% or 5078 coins. So we'll subtract the 5078 from 24,903.75 to get 19,825.75. That's the number of coins the 15,000 coin wager would have to return to put the game at 99.615%. Dividing that number by the 15,000 coins puts the vdieo poker side at 132.17%.

So, in effect, you would be making a 15 coin bet with an ER of 132.17% and simultaneously making a 10 coin bet with a 50.78% return. It balances to an overall return of 99.615%.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Ed Miller <ed.miller@...> wrote:

Maybe I misunderstand the game, but it sounds like the base VP game is -EV, while the keno side game by itself is +EV. Why would you want to play only the -EV game and forgo the right to play
+EV game?

#13

The more I think about this game the more I wouldn't want to play it unless I could find a play on the ten coin 3-spot or 4-spot. In this post I'll cover the 10 coin 3-spot. There may be stronger plays out there than 8/5 Bonus. For 3-spots the Wiz also has listed 9/6 Bonus Deluxe, 99.961%, and NSUD, 100.028%. So let's do the Bonus Deluxe.

With the 3-spot, everytime you make 2/3 (frequency is 7.21) on the keno side and Jacks or Better on the poker side you will get paid double for the poker hand. Everytime you make 3/3 (frequency 72.07) on the keno side and Jacks or Better on the poker side you will get paid 6X for the poker hand. The 3-spot is the shortest of short terms on this play since the biggest cycle to capture all of the keno payscale value is 72.07.

Some reverse engineering with a 25,000 coin hypothetical (15,000 vp, 10,000 keno). Bonus Deluxe is 99.961% so:

25,000 muliplied by .99651 is an ER of 24,912.75 coins.

The payback for the ten coin 3-spot is 56.89% or a return of 5,689 coins on a 10,000 coin wager.

24,912.75 minus 5,689 is 19,223.75 coins which is how many coins the 15,000 coin wager have to earn to put the game on 99.961%.

19,223.75 divided by 15,000 is 128.16%.

So we are simultaneosly making a 15 coin bet with an ER of 128.16% and a 10 coin keno bet with an ER of 56.89%.

We can even assign frequencies to hands. You make a high pair every 4.7334 hands so you will get paid double for a high pair every 34.13 games (4.7334 X 7.21). And you will get paid 6X every 341.13 games (4.7334 X 72.07)

For Two Pair you get paid double every 56.15 games and 6X every 561.35 games.

3K, double every 97.31 games, 6X every 972.73 games.

Straight, double every 564.18 Games, 6X every 5639.48 games.

Flush, double every 648.34 games, 6X every 6480.75 games.

Full House, double every 627.55 games, 6X every 6273 games.

Quads, double every 3055.45 games, 6X every 30542 games.

Straight Flush, double every 66,137 games, 6X every 661,098 games.

Royal Flush, double every 303, 375, 6X every 3,032,489 games

The more one can stat a game the better picture one can get of what they are up against. The 6X pay freqencies ain't looking to good. Look at the 6X Quad hit. The extra 2000 bets divided by 30542 is 6.55%. That's a 4% drain on the 25 coin bet between 6x Quads hits.

The 6X Straight Flush hit amounts to just .0378 but the extra pay in the 6X Royal Flush hit equates to .1319. Added together it's 1.7 tenths. If I were to put a play down on this game I would have to discount that 1.7 tenths out of the play. I'm a big stickler for hittable odds. So I would call 9/6 Bonus Deluxe a 99.791% game and look for a promotion that would put me over the top from that number. And if that 6X Royal Flush comes in, hey....it's all gravy.

#14

where in Vegas can I find a 99.5 or higher EV for Keno Draw Poker ?
thanks in advance ...Tom

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----- Original Message ----- From: "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@yahoo.com>