I was looking at the Kelly Bankroll Criteria...
It says that for 9/6 JoB, with a 2% cashback...for a FULL Kelly Bankroll, it's 733 "units"...
So lets say for instance I had 600 units...
My requirement is putting in $10k coin-in twice a month...
So I figure I'll play 50c denom, to play 4000 hands in a day.
So $1500 should be sufficent, correct?
Kelly Bankroll Question: Can this be right?
moneyplays_tothelimit" wrote:
I was looking at the Kelly Bankroll Criteria...
It says that for 9/6 JoB, with a 2% cashback...for a FULL Kelly Bankroll, it's 733 "units"...
So lets say for instance I had 600 units...
My requirement is putting in $10k coin-in twice a month...
So I figure I'll play 50c denom, to play 4000 hands in a day.
So $1500 should be sufficent, correct?
Keep in mind that "Kelly" maximizes growth ... it's not survival focused. A Kelly bankroll translates to approx 13.5% ROR -- a less than 1 in 8 chance of long term survival.
The players with whom I'm familiar that size vp bankroll in Kelly terms tend to use a multiplier of 2 or 2.5, which gets you to a more reasonable 5% ROR.
< So, how about sliding an email my way with details on the casino 
>
- Harry
ok, so what do I multiply by 2/2½? A royal or the kelly number?
I've always heard a good bankroll is 4x a royal at your particular level...so $8000 lifetime bankroll I assume correct?
I don't have exactly $8000 on me right now...but what if I split it up and brought $1500 with me each month...
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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
moneyplays_tothelimit" wrote:
>
> I was looking at the Kelly Bankroll Criteria...
> It says that for 9/6 JoB, with a 2% cashback...for a FULL Kelly Bankroll, it's 733 "units"...
> So lets say for instance I had 600 units...
> My requirement is putting in $10k coin-in twice a month...
> So I figure I'll play 50c denom, to play 4000 hands in a day.
> So $1500 should be sufficent, correct?Keep in mind that "Kelly" maximizes growth ... it's not survival focused. A Kelly bankroll translates to approx 13.5% ROR -- a less than 1 in 8 chance of long term survival.
The players with whom I'm familiar that size vp bankroll in Kelly terms tend to use a multiplier of 2 or 2.5, which gets you to a more reasonable 5% ROR.
< So, how about sliding an email my way with details on the casino
- Harry
You multiply the kelly bankroll. 2x of the kelly bankroll you calculated would be $3000.
btw, a quick reality check indicated I was off in citing the 2x kelly ROR. Should have been .135^2=.018 (or, just under 2%).
- H.
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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "moneyplays_tothelimit" <moneyplays_tothelimit@...> wrote:
ok, so what do I multiply by 2/2½? A royal or the kelly number?
I've always heard a good bankroll is 4x a royal at your particular level...so $8000 lifetime bankroll I assume correct?
I don't have exactly $8000 on me right now...but what if I split it up and brought $1500 with me each month...--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@> wrote:
>
> moneyplays_tothelimit" wrote:
> >
> > I was looking at the Kelly Bankroll Criteria...
> > It says that for 9/6 JoB, with a 2% cashback...for a FULL Kelly Bankroll, it's 733 "units"...
> > So lets say for instance I had 600 units...
> > My requirement is putting in $10k coin-in twice a month...
> > So I figure I'll play 50c denom, to play 4000 hands in a day.
> > So $1500 should be sufficent, correct?
>
> Keep in mind that "Kelly" maximizes growth ... it's not survival focused. A Kelly bankroll translates to approx 13.5% ROR -- a less than 1 in 8 chance of long term survival.
>
> The players with whom I'm familiar that size vp bankroll in Kelly terms tend to use a multiplier of 2 or 2.5, which gets you to a more reasonable 5% ROR.
>
> < So, how about sliding an email my way with details on the casino
>
> - Harry
>
According to Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker, there is almost a zero chance needing more than $1500 to play 4000 hands of 50c 9/6 JOB with or without 2% cashback. So $1500 is enough for the daily play.
Longterm, there is just a 76.5% that $1500 would be enough bankroll. Here are some risk vs bankroll figs for that game with 2% cb:
% RoR, Bankroll
25%, 1,450
20%, 1,700
15%, 2,000
10%, 2,400
5%, 3,150
2%, 4,100
1%, 4,800
0.5%, 5,500
0.1%, 7,200
0.01%, 9,550
--Dunbar
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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "moneyplays_tothelimit" <moneyplays_tothelimit@...> wrote:
ok, so what do I multiply by 2/2½? A royal or the kelly number?
I've always heard a good bankroll is 4x a royal at your particular level...so $8000 lifetime bankroll I assume correct?
I don't have exactly $8000 on me right now...but what if I split it up and brought $1500 with me each month...--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@> wrote:
>
> moneyplays_tothelimit" wrote:
> >
> > I was looking at the Kelly Bankroll Criteria...
> > It says that for 9/6 JoB, with a 2% cashback...for a FULL Kelly Bankroll, it's 733 "units"...
> > So lets say for instance I had 600 units...
> > My requirement is putting in $10k coin-in twice a month...
> > So I figure I'll play 50c denom, to play 4000 hands in a day.
> > So $1500 should be sufficent, correct?
>
> Keep in mind that "Kelly" maximizes growth ... it's not survival focused. A Kelly bankroll translates to approx 13.5% ROR -- a less than 1 in 8 chance of long term survival.
>
> The players with whom I'm familiar that size vp bankroll in Kelly terms tend to use a multiplier of 2 or 2.5, which gets you to a more reasonable 5% ROR.
>
> < So, how about sliding an email my way with details on the casino
>
> - Harry
>
Perfect, that's exactly what I wanted to know...
So I'll just take $1500 with me to play and replenish as necessary to maintain a $1500 session allotment (all the while adding to the main bankroll to get it to $7200.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@...> wrote:
According to Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker, there is almost a zero chance needing more than $1500 to play 4000 hands of 50c 9/6 JOB with or without 2% cashback. So $1500 is enough for the daily play.
Longterm, there is just a 76.5% that $1500 would be enough bankroll. Here are some risk vs bankroll figs for that game with 2% cb:
% RoR, Bankroll
25%, 1,450
20%, 1,700
15%, 2,000
10%, 2,400
5%, 3,150
2%, 4,100
1%, 4,800
0.5%, 5,500
0.1%, 7,200
0.01%, 9,550--Dunbar
Jazbo has Kelly=723 for 9/6 Jacks +2%:
http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html
My recommendation would be to start with double Kelly, or 1446 bets, or $3,615 on five coin 50c. If you get unlucky and your bankroll depletes to 723 bets (there's something like a 10% chance of this happening), you should drop down to a 25c five coin game. If you get lucky and double up your bankroll to 2892 bets, you should move up to a dollar five coin game. In other words, start a game at double Kelly, halve your bet if your bankroll drops to Kelly, double your bet if your bankroll grows to quad Kelly. If you have access to a multiplay or a multicoin game, you can run finer increments, in the ideal situation you would always bet half your bankroll divided by the Kelly number. If that isn't an allowed bet size, bet the next lower valid size. So, for example, if your current bankroll is $4,000 , half is $2,000 , divided by the Kelly of 723 is $2.77, so that would likely be a 50c five coin bet of $2.50 but it could be a 25c 11 coin bet if that bet is available. Dividing your bankroll by two is the conservative Kelly system, if you want to be a crazy gambler like Stu Ungar (the best poker player ever) you can skip that step, but the ride will be wilder:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZ7300Q74Fo
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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "moneyplays_tothelimit" <moneyplays_tothelimit@...> wrote:
I was looking at the Kelly Bankroll Criteria...
It says that for 9/6 JoB, with a 2% cashback...for a FULL Kelly Bankroll, it's 733 "units"...
So lets say for instance I had 600 units...
My requirement is putting in $10k coin-in twice a month...
So I figure I'll play 50c denom, to play 4000 hands in a day.
So $1500 should be sufficent, correct?
As a side note, anyone who wants to read a non=mathematics based explanation of how the Kelly system works should read "Fortune's Formula" by Poundstone. The "formula" is the Kelly system. Bill Gross uses it, LTCM did not:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Gross
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LTCM
So you're saying double a royal ($4000) is fine for a bankroll to play?
I actually CAN bet 11 units on a 25c denom, if that would be the 100% optimal size (it would just mean I'd have to calculate out differently as I want to play EXACTLY $20k coin in per month)
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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
In the ideal situation you would always bet half your bankroll divided by the Kelly number. If that isn't an allowed bet size, bet the next lower valid size. So, for example, if your current bankroll is $4,000 , half is $2,000 , divided by the Kelly of 723 is $2.77, so that would likely be a 50c five coin bet of $2.50 but it could be a 25c 11 coin bet if that bet is available. Dividing your bankroll by two is the conservative Kelly system.
Yep, size your bet to your current bankroll divided by two divided by the Kelly number, or the next lower valid bet size.
5 quarters : bankroll > $1,808
6 quarters : bankroll > $2,169
7 quarters : bankroll > $2,531
8 quarters : bankroll > $2,892
9 quarters : bankroll > $3,254
10 quarters : bankroll > $3,615
11 quarters : bankroll > $3,977
12 quarters : bankroll > $4,338
13 quarters : bankroll > $4,700
bet size : bankroll > bet size x 2 x Kelly
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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "TIMSPEED" <corvetteracing87@...> wrote:
So you're saying double a royal ($4000) is fine for a bankroll to play?
I actually CAN bet 11 units on a 25c denom, if that would be the 100% optimal size (it would just mean I'd have to calculate out differently as I want to play EXACTLY $20k coin in per month)--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>
In the ideal situation you would always bet half your bankroll divided by the Kelly number. If that isn't an allowed bet size, bet the next lower valid size. So, for example, if your current bankroll is $4,000 , half is $2,000 , divided by the Kelly of 723 is $2.77, so that would likely be a 50c five coin bet of $2.50 but it could be a 25c 11 coin bet if that bet is available. Dividing your bankroll by two is the conservative Kelly system.
I appreciate you posting that chart/formula!
Now I know pretty good what I need if I just want to play 25c, or 50c, or even $!
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
Yep, size your bet to your current bankroll divided by two divided by the Kelly number, or the next lower valid bet size.
5 quarters : bankroll > $1,808
6 quarters : bankroll > $2,169
7 quarters : bankroll > $2,531
8 quarters : bankroll > $2,892
9 quarters : bankroll > $3,254
10 quarters : bankroll > $3,615
11 quarters : bankroll > $3,977
12 quarters : bankroll > $4,338
13 quarters : bankroll > $4,700
bet size : bankroll > bet size x 2 x Kelly